January 11, 2023
As of the time of this writing, light rain had spread over the northern half of the San Joaquin Valley. Satellite imagery clearly depicts the latest atmospheric river of air, this time aimed at northern California. The southern limit of the precipitation will be somewhere across the valley, possibly near the Kern/Tulare County line. however, even Kern County could pick up a few hundredths from this latest event as both radar and satellite imagery is showing light rain spreading further south than other model projections. There will be a break in the action Thursday and Thursday night then the unrelentless series of storms will begin anew, possibly as early as Friday afternoon. Satellite imagery over the Pacific Ocean is churning with activity with one storm after another lined up like people entering a movie theater. It appears measurable rain will occur every day from Saturday through Thursday. I’ve been mentioning a possible end to this pattern around the 19 or 20. Models this morning show the storm track will be a bit further south during this time frame, however precipitation will still be to our north. I never thought I’d say this, but we do need to dry out for a while. At this point, I’ll go out on a limb and forecast dry weather for the 19 or 20 and after for several days.
Forecast: periods of light rain likely from Fresno County north today. A chance of light showers south of Fresno County. Mostly cloudy tonight with patchy fog developing after midnight. Partly to mostly cloudy Thursday night through Friday morning. A chance of rain Friday. Rain becoming likely again Friday night, especially after midnight. Rain likely at times Saturday through Monday night. A chance of rain Tuesday through Wednesday
Temperatures:
Madera 57/41/62/44/62 | Reedley 57/41/61/43/63 | Dinuba 56/41/62/43/63 |
Porterville 58’42/63/45/65 | Lindsay 57/42/63/43/63 | Delano 58/42/62/45/61 |
Bakersfield 59/44/65/46/66 | Taft 57/47/64/48/65 | Arvin 58/44/65/47/65 |
Lamont 59/46/65/48/65 | Pixley 56/41/62/44/62 | Tulare 56/42/62/43/62 |
Woodlake 56/42/62/44/62 | Hanford 57/43/62/44/62 | Orosi 56/41/61/43/61 |
Seven Day Forecast
Saturday
Rain likely 47/63 |
Sunday
Rain likely 45/59 |
Monday
Rain likely 44/57 |
Tuesday
Rain likely 42/56 |
Wednesday
Chance of rain 39/56 |
Two Week Outlook: January 18 through January 24: Model projections for this period show below average temperatures. The strong signature for rain is missing,, however it doesn’t eliminate the chance of rain altogether. We’ll call for a chance of rain during this time frame along with below average temperatures.
January: This model continues the trend of the season with a favorable pattern for rain for California. The best chance of rain in January will be over the northern half of the state. Temperatures will run marginally below average.
January, February, March: This model nudges the storm track further north with near average rainfall for northern California but somewhat below average for central and southern California. Temperatures will run marginally above average.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be generally out of the southeast at 5 to 15 mph at times through Friday. Winds Friday night and Saturday will continue out of the southeast, reaching 10 to 20 mph at times with stronger gusts, especially from Fresno County north.
Rain Discussion: Light showers are likely from Fresno County north today with a chance of light showers as far south as the Kern/Tulare County line. Just light amounts are anticipated. That is not the case, however, in the longer term. Models are projecting that from now through the 16th of January another 6 to 8 inches of rain or water equivalent will fall along the Sierra Nevada. On the valley floor, another inch and a half to two inches is projected along the east side of the valley from the Kern county line northward through Merced. Along the west side and the valley portion of Kern County, another half to one inch is anticipated. Medium range models continue to show a continuous stream of storms through the 18. A ridge may build along the west coast around the 19th or 20th to put the brakes on this pattern.
Lows Tonight:
All locations will be above freezing tonight.
Actual humidity values for Porterville 99%/68%, Delano 94%63%. Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 40s. Kern: low to mid 40s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .27, Parlier, .27, Arvin .50, Porterville .26, Delano .32 Soil temperatures: Stratford 55, Parlier 53 Arvin 54, Porterville 51, Delano 52 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 55/37 Record Temperatures: 74/19
Heating Degree Days This Season. 1204 -15 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 8.23, 208% of average, Monthly 2.98
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 3.53, 154% of average, Monthly: 1.18
Average Temperature This Month 52.3 +6.3 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove 634, Parlier 784, Arvin 657 Belridge 730, Shafter 755, Stratford 763, Delano 779, Porterville 757 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 7:11 Sunset, 5:03, hours of daylight, 9:51.
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 60 / 51 / 1.41 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 60 / 53 / 0.21 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 62 / 52 / 0.40 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 63 / 52 / 0.54 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 63 / 51 / 0.23 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 64 / 51 / 0.74 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 59 / 52 / 0.16 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 60 / 50 / 1.12 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 58 / 52 / T /
Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
SEAS. % LY % AVE YEAR
STOCKTON 0.31 12.58 235 8.21 153 5.36 13.45
MODESTO 0.32 10.83 232 8.15 175 4.67 12.27
MERCED 0.42 10.77 249 5.82 134 4.33 11.80
MADERA 0.11 4.09 106 1.52 39 3.85 10.79
FRESNO 0.13 8.23 208 5.21 132 3.95 10.99
HANFORD 0.15 6.06 200 4.60 152 3.03 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.12 3.53 154 3.55 155 2.29 6.36
BISHOP 1.04 7.84 451 4.50 259 1.74 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP M 0.25 43 M M 0.58 2.20
SALINAS 0.23 7.72 161 6.11 128 4.79 12.58
PASO ROBLES M 9.77 227 7.12 166 4.30 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.11 11.59 251 6.10 132 4.62 13.32
Nest report: January 11 afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.