The lull in the action the past 24 hours will come to a screeching halt later today. The first of two low pressure systems is already spreading rain as far south as the Bay. Satellite imagery shows the first system moving on shore later this afternoon and tonight. Models are indicating a 200 mph jet stream flanked above central and southern California with the center of the low off the Oregon/northern California coast. Significant differences in surface pressure combined with jet stream energy aloft will result in strong, gusty winds along the west side and possibly near the base of the Tehachapi Mountains late this afternoon through tomorrow morning. Heaviest precipitation with this first storm will occur late tonight and Saturday morning. One-plus inch of rain is possible on parts of the valley floor, which is discussed in the rainfall summary. It appears we’ll have a brief break Sunday before the next storm rolls in for Monday into Tuesday. It looks like the Wednesday/Thursday event will turn into an inside slider. That’s where a storm slides over the top of high pressure over southern and central California with most of the energy going into Nevada. Typically, systems like this spread rain down the Sierra Nevada and leave the valley dry. Still,, I’m going to go with a small chance of showers for Wednesday and Thursday. Models are also changing their tune for the pattern for next weekend. They show a large ridge of high pressure building northward into the Gulf of Alaska and a closed low forming over central and southern California. This will set up a squeeze play, with cold air from western Canada being squeeze southward between the offshore high and the low pressure over southern and central California. With a northerly flow developing and possibly a northeast flow, we may see a chance of showers along with lowering snow levels. Since this is new information and no trend has developed, we’ll take this with a grain of salt for now and see what models try to nail down in the coming days.
Forecast: Increasing cloudiness this morning. A chance of rain later this afternoon. Rain likely tonight and Saturday, locally heavy at times. Showers Saturday night. A chance of showers Sunday. Partly cloudy Sunday night. Rain likely Tuesday, tapering off Tuesday night. Partly to mostly cloudy Wednesday through Thursday with a chance of showers, mainly near the mountains. Partly cloudy Friday with areas of morning fog.
Temperatures:
| Madera 65/49/57/45/54 | Reedley 64/49/56/46/54 | Dinuba 64/48/56/45/54 |
| Porterville 66/50//58/45/55 | Lindsay 66/48/58/44/54 | Delano 67/50/58/44/54 |
| Bakersfield 69/50/58/46/54 | Taft 67/51/58/46/54 | Arvin 69/49/58/46/54 |
| Lamont 68/50/58/46/55 | Pixley 65//47/57/45/54 | Tulare 64/48/56/46/55 |
| Woodlake 65/48/54/44/54 | Hanford 66/49/56/46/54 | Orosi 64/48/56/44/55 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Monday
Showers likely 45/55 |
Tuesday
Mostly cloudy 42/55 |
Wednesday
Chance of showers 35/53 |
Thursday
Chance of showers 37/53 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 35/52 |
Two Week Outlook: January 19 through January 25: For the first time in about three weeks,, this model is portraying a dry weather pattern. a cut off low will be over southern California with a pool of relatively cold air so look for below average temperatures.
January: This model continues the trend of the season with a favorable pattern for rain for California. The best chance of rain in January will be over the northern half of the state. Temperatures will run marginally below average.
January, February, March: This model nudges the storm track further north with near average rainfall for northern California but somewhat below average for central and southern California. Temperatures will run marginally above average.
Wind Discussion: Strong jet stream energy plus significant differences in pressure again will genenrate some gusty south to southeast winds up the west side of the valley and possibly near the base of the Tehachapi Mountains. Winds this morning will actually be light, picking up later this afternoon or tonight, leading to winds in the 15 to 30 mph range along the west side. Winds of 15 to 30 mph will be possible along with stronger gusts along the west side and locally elsewhere. There’s roughly a 40 peprcent chance of winds blowing down slope late tonight and Saturday near the base of the Tehachapi Mountains. If these winds materialize, gusts over 50 mph are possible at places like near the bottom of the Grapevine. Winds will decrease by Sunday to around 8 to 15 mph out of the southeast. With southeasterly winds at 5 to 15 mph Monday.
Rain Discussion: Conditions will remain dry this morning with rain spreading over the valley again this afternoon. There may be a break in the action between roughly 5:00 and 8:00 tonight. Rain later tonight, continuing at times through Saturday night. Rain likely Sunday and at times through Monday night, possibly locally heavy at times. There’s a smaller risk of showers Tuesday with only a small risk Tuesday night through Thursday. Rainfall amounts between now and Sunday night could total anywhere from .75 to 1.25 are possible Porterville northward on the east side. Expect anywhere from .40 to .75 along the west side of Fresno and Kings Counties and around .25 to .50 over the valley portion of Kern County.
Lows Tonight:
All locations will be above freezing tonight.
Actual humidity values for Porterville 100%/55%, Delano 95%42%. Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 50s. Kern: Mid to upper 50s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .26, Parlier, .27, Arvin .47, Porterville .25, Delano .30 Soil temperatures: Stratford 55, Parlier 53 Arvin 54, Porterville 51, Delano 52 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 55/37 Record Temperatures: 70/19
Heating Degree Days This Season. 1228 -29 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 8.25, 201% of average, Monthly 3.00
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 3.53, 149% of average, Monthly: 1.18
Average Temperature This Month 52.4 +6.4 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove 634, Parlier 784, Arvin 657 Belridge 730, Shafter 755, Stratford 763, Delano 779, Porterville 757 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 7:11 Sunset, 5:05, hours of daylight, 9:54.
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 65 / 53 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 64 / 54 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 64 / 50 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 66 / 47 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 65 / 46 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 70 / 57 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 64 / 47 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 67 / 46 / 0.00 /
IYK : Inyokern AP 2455 : 56 / 35 / 0.00 /
MHV : Mojave AP 2785 : 54 / 37 / 0.00 /
Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
SEAS. % LY % AVE YEAR
STOCKTON 0.00 12.75 230 8.21 148 5.55 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 11.03 227 8.15 168 4.85 12.27
MERCED 0.00 10.81 240 5.82 129 4.50 11.80
MADERA 0.00 4.10 102 1.52 38 4.00 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 8.25 201 5.21 127 4.11 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 6.06 193 4.60 146 3.14 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.53 149 3.55 150 2.37 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 8.02 438 4.50 246 1.83 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.32 52 M M 0.61 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 7.72 155 6.11 123 4.98 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 9.78 217 7.12 158 4.50 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 11.60 241 6.10 127 4.81 13.32
Nest report: January 13 afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.