January 16, 2023
Most of the shower activity has been concentrated along the Sierra Nevada foothills today with widely scattered showers elsewhere. The center of the surface low is over Nevada while the main upper low is over the San Francisco Bay Area. Doppler radar indicates a large area of showers around the Monterey Bay area eastward over the Coast Range then spilling into the valley over western Fresno and Kings Counties. As the upper low continues to shift across the valley, showers will become more widespread with a slight chance of isolated thunderstorms through this evening. Most of the active portion of this storm should be over by about 10 pm with the exception of the mountain areas where activity will continue well into the morning hours. The latest balloon sounding indicated a freezing level of 3,500 feet over Oakland, so the snow level surrounding the valley is between 3,000 and 4,000 feet. As skies begin to clear late tonight, pockets of fog will develop. However, the lower level of the atmosphere will remain too churned up for widespread fog to develop Tuesday morning. The next storm upstream is cold with origins in the Gulf of Alaska. This storm will move through the Pacific Northwest then into the Great Basin just east of the Sierra Nevada Wednesday. This storm will bring a chance of scattered showers to the valley late Wednesday night and Thursday, however, compared to more recent activity, this one will be a non event. By Friday and Saturday, a large ridge of high pressure off shore will build a significant ridge up into Alaska. The flow around the far eastern rim of the high will create a north/northwest flow into California, maintaining below average temperatures for the remainder of the week and well into next week. we should begin to see local frost as early as Wednesday morning then the usual battle of frost again fog will commence Thursday morning and each morning thereafter. Temperatures will in part be determined by the fog’s coverage. This is by no means a big frost or freeze event, but more of your garden variety chilly nights which are good for racking up chilling hours.
Forecast: Showers and a chance of isolated thunderstorms through the late evening hours then becoming partly to mostly cloudy with patchy dense fog overnight. Patchy fog and low clouds Tuesday morning, becoming mostly to partly cloudy during the afternoon. Increasing cloudiness Wednesday leading to a chance of scattered showers Wednesday night and Thursday. Clearing Thursday night with areas of fog forming by Friday morning. Mostly clear to partly cloudy Friday through Monday with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds.
Temperatures:
| Madera 38/52/32/52 | Reedley 40/52/33/53 | Dinuba 39/53/33/53 |
| Porterville 40/51/32/52 | Lindsay 39/52/31/52 | Delano 41/51/34/53 |
| Bakersfield 42/50/37/51 | Taft 42/50/37/52 | Arvin 41/51/34/52 |
| Lamont 40/50/34/51 | Pixley 39/51/33/52 | Tulare 38/51/31/52 |
| Woodlake 40/52/32/52 | Hanford 40/53/34/53 | Orosi 38/51/32/52 |
Wind Discussion: Winds this evening will be mainly out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph at times, decreasing to around 5 to 10 mph after midnight. Winds Tuesday will be mainly variable to around 12 mph, becoming light to near calm Tuesday night and Wednesday. winds Wednesday night and Thursday will again be out of the northwest at 8 to 15 mph, diminishing Thursday night.
Rain: Most of the rain today has been along the Sierra Nevada near the foothills with scattered showers elsewhere. There is another rather large area of showers moving over the Coast Range and over the west side of the valley. There have been reports of lightning in this complex, so isolated thunderstorms will be possible through the evening hours. Most of the activity should be over by 10 pm or so. The next chance of rain will begin Wednesday night, lasting well into Thursday. This system is not a blockbuster by any means but it does have a chance of scattering showers over the valley with amounts ranging from nothing to perhaps a tenth or two, especially near the base of the Sierra. Dry weather will return Thursday night, continuing through the remainder of the week. if models are correct, next week will be dry, as well.
Frost: Expect above average conditions.
Lows Tonight:
All locations will be above freezing tonight.
Next report: January 17 morning
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.