January 16, 2023
Heaviest precipitation is currently over Stanislaus and Merced Counties and over the southern Sierra Nevada north of the Kern County line. Scattered showers are occurring elsewhere. A number of locations have recorded more than .50 so far with a few others over 1.00. the main trough of low pressure will move through today with widespread showers and a few isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out this afternoon. This system will march eastward Tuesday, allowing the precipitation to grind to a halt. At mid week, upper level high pressure will build over the eastern Pacific, ridging into the Gulf of Alaska and western Canada. This creates a northerly flow which will squeeze around the eastern side of the high and the western rim of low pressure over the Great Basin. We haven’t used the word “frost” for a while, but pockets of frost will develop beginning Wednesday morning assuming the fog doesn’t quickly take over along with upslope clouds along the west facing slopes of the Sierra Nevada and the north facing slopes of the Kern County mountains. We do have one more little system to deal with in the form of an inside slider which will move through the Pacific Northwest then into the Great Basin Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Most of the energy from this system will dive into the Great Basin just to the east of the Sierra Nevada. However, it’s possible the far western rim of this storm will move over central California. After Thursday morning, the high will completely take over along with its northerly flow, resulting in chilly days and cold nights.
Forecast: Showers through this evening with a chance of isolated thunderstorms. The showers will come to an end later this evening with mostly cloudy skies the remainder of the night. Areas of fog Tuesday morning, otherwise partly cloudy skies will prevail. Partly cloudy skies Wednesday with a chance of light showers through Thursday morning. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Thursday night through Monday with increasing amounts of fog and low clouds.
Temperatures:
| Madera 54/40/50/33/52 | Reedley 55/40/52/33/53 | Dinuba 54/40/51/32/52 |
| Porterville 53/41/51/33/52 | Lindsay 53/39/53/32/52 | Delano 54/41/51/34/52 |
| Bakersfield 55/42/51/36/53 | Taft 52/42/50/32/51 | Arvin 55/42/50/35/52 |
| Lamont 55/41/50/35/51 | Pixley 54/40/51/33/52 | Tulare 53/39/50/32/52 |
| Woodlake 54/39/52/32/52 | Hanford 54/41/52/34/53 | Orosi 53/39/52/33/53 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Thursday
Partly cloudy 33/52 |
Friday
AM fog/PM sun 32/51 |
Saturday
Am Fog/PM sun 32/53 |
Sunday
AM/pm sun 33/53 |
Monday
AM fog/PM sun 33/53 |
Two Week Outlook: January 22 through January 28: For the first time in about three weeks, this model is portraying a dry weather pattern. a cut off low will be over southern California with a pool of relatively cold air so look for below average temperatures.
January: This model continues the trend of the season with a favorable pattern for rain for California. The best chance of rain in January will be over the northern half of the state. Temperatures will run marginally below average.
January, February, March: This model nudges the storm track further north with near average rainfall for northern California but somewhat below average for central and southern California. Temperatures will run marginally above average.
Wind Discussion: southeasterly winds are currently blowing towards that center of low pressure off the northern California coast. Just within the last hour, Merced posted a gust of 40 mph, Fresno 28, Lemoore 30, and Lost Hills 35. These winds will decrease later this afternoon and evening as differences in pressure begin to slacken. Winds tonight will decrease to around 8 to 15 mph and just 5 to 12 mph Tuesday through Wednesday. Northwesterly winds will begin Wednesday night and Thursday due to an inside slider moving into the Great Basin.
Rain Discussion: The following are storm totals as of 5 am. Bakersfield .34, shafter .37, Belridge .66
Delano .53, Porterville .45, Exeter .43, Visalia .40, Lemoore 1.17, Parlier .75, Fresno .69, Clovis 1.76, Reedley .48, Merced 1.50, Stratford .33
As you can see, substantial amounts of precipitation has already been accumulated. No doubt 2 to 3 feet of new snow has been measured over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada on top of a massive snow pack. Periods of showers will continue through the evening hours with dry weather returning tonight through Tuesday night. A weak weather system will move through Wednesday night and Thursday morning with a chance of light showers. After Thursday, a prolonged dry period will set up, lasting the remainder of the week and likely into next week as well.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight. A colder northerly flow will develop Tuesday along the eastern rim of high pressure off shore. Low to mid 30s will be widespread Wednesday morning with the exception of locations that remain under protective cloud cover from upsloping. Fog is also quite possible due to a saturated valley floor and the beginning of a weak warm air inversion. Low to mid 30s will be possible each morning for the next week. upper 20s will be possible in river bottom type locations. Even though we’re moving through what are typically the coldest weeks of the year, nothing critical is seen, just beneficial cold nights.
Lows Tonight:
Actual humidity values for Porterville 98%/74%, Delano 95%65%. Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 40. Kern: Mid to upper 40s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .22, Parlier, .17, Arvin .37, Porterville .17, Delano .21 Soil temperatures: Stratford 55, Parlier 53, Arvin 51, Porterville 51, Delano 53 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 55/38 Record Temperatures: 71/20
Heating Degree Days This Season. 1262 -49 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 8.94, 210% of average, Monthly 3.69
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 3.86, 151% of average, Monthly: 1.51
Average Temperature This Month 52.6 +6.5 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove 634, Parlier 795, Arvin 667 Belridge 740, Shafter 771, Stratford 771, Delano 789, Porterville 768 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 7:10 Sunset, 5:08, hours of daylight, 9:58.
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 53 / 47 / 0.33 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 54 / 48 / 0.02 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : M / M / M /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 56 / 49 / 0.09 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 56 / 47 / 0.06 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 56 / 52 / 0.17 /
NID : China Lake NAWS 2283 : 53 / 43 / 0.02 /
EDW : Edwards AFB 2302 : 48 / 42 / 0.06 /
Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
SEAS. % LY % AVE YEAR
STOCKTON 0.01 13.63 234 8.21 141 5.82 13.45
MODESTO 0.05 11.94 234 8.15 159 5.11 12.27
MERCED 0.02 11.67 246 5.82 123 4.75 11.80
MADERA 0.01 4.44 105 1.52 36 4.21 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 8.94 206 5.21 120 4.34 10.99
HANFORD T 6.57 198 4.60 139 3.31 8.13
BAKERSFIELD T 3.69 148 3.55 143 2.49 6.36
BISHOP 0.06 8.32 424 4.50 230 1.96 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.39 61 M M 0.64 2.20
SALINAS 0.04 8.31 158 6.11 116 5.25 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.15 12.41 259 7.14 149 4.79 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.07 11.68 229 6.10 120 5.09 13.32
Nest report: January 16 afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.