January 16, 2023
There is a considerable amount of upslope clouds being generated by a northwest flow aloft above the valley floor. Over Bakersfield, the ceiling is 3,700 feet, above Porterville 2,900 feet, above Visalia 1,600 feet and above Fresno just 500 feet. Obviously the cloud deck is rather ragged. With abundant moisture on the valley floor, where skies do not clear overnight, temperatures will only cool into the upper 30s to the lower 40s. however, where extensive clearing takes place, readings will fall into the low to mid 30s. It’ll take another 12 to 18 hours or so before the lowest level of the atmosphere completely settles down. But, where skies clear tonight, dense fog will develop. We have one more weak system to muddle through before we go into a 100% bonafide dry pattern. we call them inside sliders. That is when a storm system, usually a weak one, moves through the Pacific Northwest and into the Great Basin just to the east of the Sierra Nevada. This little event will offer a chance of light showers Wednesday night and Thursday morning. It will be a relatively quick mover, so any precipitation will be generally at or less than .10 and possibly no measurable rain at all in Kern County. Following this system, a large ridge, both at the surface and aloft, will build over the eastern Pacific Ocean. Most models indicate the northern rim of the high will build all the way into Alaska, creating a north/northwest flow between the off shore high and a low center over the Desert Southwest. This will be the beginning of a blocking ridge pattern which will maintain a dry forecast for the remainder of this week and more than likely next week, as well. Even the two week model is pointing towards below average rainfall and below average temperatures as a north/northwest or strictly a northwest flow reigns during the medium term.
Forecast: Mostly to partly cloudy tonight with patchy dense fog after midnight. Increasing cloudiness Wednesday. A chance of showers Wednesday night and for a time Thursday morning. Partly to mostly cloudy Thursday night with patchy fog after midnight. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Friday through Tuesday with increasing amounts of fog and low clouds.
Temperatures:
| Madera 33/52/37/51 | Reedley 34/52/37/51 | Dinuba 33/51/35/50 |
| Porterville 34/52/38/51 | Lindsay 32/52/37/51 | Delano 34/53/38/50 |
| Bakersfield 39/52/39/50 | Taft 37/51/38/49 | Arvin 37/52/37/50 |
| Lamont 34/51/37/51 | Pixley 35/52/36/51 | Tulare 32/51/35/50 |
| Woodlake 35/51/37/51 | Hanford 37/52/38/52 | Orosi 33/52/37/52 |
Wind Discussion: Winds will be generally no more than 5 mph through Friday with extended periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: For now it appears the only chance of measurable rain will be Wednesday night and Thursday morning as a weak low center moves southeastward just to the east of the Sierra Nevada. It’s possible a few locations could pick up as much as .10 but others could record no precipitation all.
Frost: Most locations will be above freezing tonight. I’ll go ahead and forecast the frost pockets down into the lower 30s. By and large, however, most locations will range from 34 to 38. There is a great deal of upsloping out there this afternoon which is forming a fairly low cloud deck. That deck may hang in there all night, especially in the south valley. Even if skies were to clear for the bulk of the night, this air mass would be capable of no more than 30 to 32 for short durations. On Thursday morning, all locations will be above freezing, but only slightly above in the coldest locations. For Friday through Sunday, expect widespread low to mid 30s with a few frost pockets in the upper 20s for short durations. Medium range models are also indicating below average conditions will continue, but there’s nothing on the horizon requiring significant protection.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
Af |
Porterville
af |
Ivanhoe
32 |
Woodlake
af |
| Strathmore
af |
McFarland
32 |
Ducor
af |
Tea Pot Dome
af |
| Lindsay
32 |
Exeter
31 |
Famoso
af |
Madera
af |
| Belridge
32 |
Delano
af |
North Bakersfield
af |
Orosi
af |
| Orange Cove
af |
Lindcove
32 |
Lindcove Hillside
af |
Sanger River Bottom
30 |
| Root creek
32 |
Venice Hill
af |
Rosedale
af |
Jasmine
af |
| Arvin
af |
Lamont
af |
Plainview
af |
Mettler
af |
| Edison
af |
Maricopa
af |
Holland Creek
af |
Tivy Valley
af |
| Kite Road South
af |
Kite Road North
af |
Next report: January 17 morning
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.