January 17, 2023
The last in the series of endless Pacific storms is finally to our east. There is a chance of light showers Wednesday night and Thursday morning, however it won’t be as drenching as the atmospheric rivers which have blasted their way through California. Yesterday’s system is now moving through the Desert Southwest as upper level high pressure builds over the eastern Pacific. This high will eventually build into Alaska, creating a north/northeast flow, resulting in below average temperatures beginning today. The main forecast challenge beyond Thursday will be one of our races between fog and frost. As a weak warm air inversion becomes established over the valley, which is saturated, fog will have no problem developing. In fact, there’s quite a bit of fog this morning, mostly in the Hanford/Visalia area with patches of fog elsewhere. The next system is an inside slider. A cold low will move out of the Gulf of Alaska, through the Pacific Northwest, sliding through the Great Basin just to the east of the Sierra Nevada. Models this morning indicate central California will be on the far western flank of this low which will spread snow showers down the Sierra Nevada with a chance of light showers over the valley floor Wednesday night and Thursday morning. By the weekend, a large high will have built a ridge as far north as Alaska while a low remains over the Desert Southwest. This will generate a west/northwest flow which will maintain below average temperatures with pockets of frost. It’s always possible fog may become widespread enough to end the frost threat, but as we all know it will be a daily battle between the frost and the fog.
Forecast: Areas of fog and low clouds this morning. Otherwise it will be partly cloudy. Increasing cloudiness late tonight. Mostly cloudy Wednesday with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds and a chance of showers Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Partly cloudy Thursday afternoon. Clear to partly cloudy Friday through Tuesday with extensive night and morning fog and low clouds with at least partial afternoon clearing.
Temperatures:
| Madera 51/34/52/36/51 | Reedley 52/35/52/36/51 | Dinuba 50/33/52/35/51 |
| Porterville 51/35/52/37/51 | Lindsay 51/33/52/36/51 | Delano 52/33/52/36/50 |
| Bakersfield 51/38/51/38/50 | Taft 50/37/52/39/51 | Arvin 53/36/52/38/50 |
| Lamont 52/38/52/39/51 | Pixley 50/34/52/37/51 | Tulare 50/33/52/37/51 |
| Woodlake 51/34/52/35/51 | Hanford 51/36/52/38/50 | Orosi 51/33/52/36/51 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Friday
Am fog/pm sun 31/51 |
Saturday
Am fog/pm sun 29/50 |
Sunday
Am fog/pm sun 31/50 |
Monday
Am fog/pm sun 30/49 |
Tuesday
Am fog/pm sun 31/49 |
Two Week Outlook: January 22 through January 28: For the first time in about three weeks, this model is portraying a dry weather pattern. a cut off low will be over southern California with a pool of relatively cold air so look for below average temperatures.
January: This model continues the trend of the season with a favorable pattern for rain for California. The best chance of rain in January will be over the northern half of the state. Temperatures will run marginally below average.
January, February, March: This model nudges the storm track further north with near average rainfall for northern California but somewhat below average for central and southern California. Temperatures will run marginally above average.
Wind Discussion: Winds today will be generally at or less than 5 mph with periods of near calm conditions. Winds tonight through Friday will be generally at or less than 10 mph with extended periods of near calm conditions.
Rain Discussion: Gone are the atmospheric type storms which have bombarded California for the last three and a half weeks. There is one last inside slider which will result in a chance of light showers Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Rainfall amounts will range from nothing upwards to a tenth of an inch. conditions from Thursday night through the end of the week will be dry and for now, it appears all of next week will be dry, as well.
Frost Discussion: Most locations will be above 32 degrees tonight and probably tomorrow night as well, although it’s possible the coldest river bottom and similar locations tonight could reach into the low 30s. on Wednesday night and Thursday morning, cloud cover should maintain above freezing conditions, but only slightly above in the coldest locations. Colder air will be filtering into central California Friday morning due to a weather system moving through the Great Basin. A north/northwesterly flow between a building off shore ridge and a low over the Desert Southwest will lower temperatures into the low to mid 30s on a widespread basis. Coldest locations beginning Friday morning have the potential of dipping into the upper 20s. widespread low to mid 30s and upper 20s are likely Saturday and Sunday mornings as well. Of course, our wild card will be the coverage of the fog. How quickly the fog and low clouds develop will determine low temperatures each night.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
Af |
Porterville
af |
Ivanhoe
32 |
Woodlake
af |
| Strathmore
af |
McFarland
32 |
Ducor
af |
Tea Pot Dome
af |
| Lindsay
32 |
Exeter
31 |
Famoso
af |
Madera
af |
| Belridge
32 |
Delano
af |
North Bakersfield
af |
Orosi
af |
| Orange Cove
af |
Lindcove
32 |
Lindcove Hillside
af |
Sanger River Bottom
30 |
| Root creek
32 |
Venice Hill
af |
Rosedale
af |
Jasmine
af |
| Arvin
af |
Lamont
af |
Plainview
af |
Mettler
af |
| Edison
af |
Maricopa
af |
Holland Creek
af |
Tivy Valley
af |
| Kite Road South
af |
Kite Road North
af |
AF=Above Freezing
Actual humidity values for Porterville 100%/66%, Delano 98%62%. Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 40. Kern: Mid to upper 40s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .26, Parlier, .21, Arvin .35, Porterville .21, Delano .26 Soil temperatures: Stratford 55, Parlier 53, Arvin 55, Porterville 51, Delano 52 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 55/38 Record Temperatures: 74/20
Heating Degree Days This Season. 1279 -50 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 9.15, 205% of average, Monthly 3.90
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 3.98, 154% of average, Monthly: 1.63
Average Temperature This Month 52.3 +6.1 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove 634, Parlier 795, Arvin 667 Belridge 740, Shafter 771, Stratford 771, Delano 789, Porterville 768 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 7:10 Sunset, 5:09, hours of daylight, 9:59.
Yesterday’s Weather:
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 57 / 42 / 0.72 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 57 / 39 / 0.13 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 57 / 41 / 0.20 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 55 / 39 / 0.11 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 56 / 37 / 0.18 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 57 / 40 / 0.12 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 53 / 42 / 0.10 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 52 / 42 / 0.28 /
Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
SEAS. % LY % AVE YEAR
STOCKTON 1.23 15.26 258 8.21 139 5.91 13.45
MODESTO 1.05 13.29 256 8.15 157 5.20 12.27
MERCED 0.73 12.70 263 5.82 120 4.83 11.80
MADERA 0.02 4.48 105 1.52 36 4.28 10.79
FRESNO 0.09 9.03 205 5.21 118 4.41 10.99
HANFORD 0.09 6.75 201 4.61 137 3.36 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.04 3.90 154 3.56 141 2.53 6.36
BISHOP 0.25 8.57 429 4.50 225 2.00 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.39 59 M M 0.66 2.20
SALINAS M 8.32 156 6.11 115 5.33 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.04 12.62 259 7.14 146 4.88 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.21 13.12 253 6.10 118 5.18 13.32
Nest report: January 17 afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.