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Forecast

January 19, 2023 report

January 19, 2023

A band of light showers roughly 50 miles wide is moving down the valley at this hour. The showers have already ended in Merced County. These showers are being generated by a cold front from a low pressure system now moving into the Great Basin. This activity will be over by mid to late morning. In the meantime, upper level high pressure is building over the eastern Pacific and will build a ridge into western Canada. The combination of the off shore high and a low pressure system which will move into the Desert Southwest will generate a northerly flow which will spread a colder air mass into central California. The high will also begin to clamp down on the valley floor due to a warm air inversion, setting the state for more and more fog as the days go by. Temperatures will drop below freezing in many areas. Upslope clouds will also develop against the north facing slopes of the Tehachapi Mountains and the west facing slopes of the Sierra Nevada. This may limit frost formation tonight. However, that will not be the case over the weekend. This is discussed in the frost section below. Medium range models continue to maintain a dry forecast with high pressure anchored over and just off the west coast, creating a pattern which will create a race between fog and frost.

 

Forecast: Light showers for a time this morning. Becoming mostly to partly cloudy this afternoon. Mostly clear tonight with the exception of Kern County and parts of Tulare County which will continue to be partly to mostly cloudy. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Friday night through Monday with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds. Mostly clear Monday night through Thursday with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds.

 

Temperatures:

Madera 52/32/51/29/54 Reedley 52/33/50/29/53 Dinuba 51/32/51/30/53
Porterville 51/32/51/30/54 Lindsay 50/30/51/29/53 Delano 52/34/51/31/54
Bakersfield 50/39/51/34/53 Taft 51/36/50/34/52 Arvin 50/34/51/32/54
Lamont 51/36/51/33/53 Pixley 51/33/51/30/52 Tulare 51/33/51/29/52
Woodlake 51/32/51/29/54 Hanford 51/34/51/30/53 Orosi 52/33/51/30/53

 

Seven Day Forecast

Sunday

Am fog/pm sun

30/53

Monday

Am fog/pm sun

31/52

Tuesday

Am fog/pm sun

32/54

Wednesday

Am fog/pm sun

32/56

Thursday

Am fog/pm sun

32/55

 

Two Week Outlook:  January 26 through February 1: This  model continues to depict a north to northwest flow moving along the western side of low pressure over the interior west. The chance of precipitation will remain low during this period with below average temperatures.

 

January:  This model continues the trend of the season with a favorable pattern for rain for California. The best chance of rain in January will be over the northern half of the state. Temperatures will run marginally below average.

 

January, February, March:  This model nudges the storm track further north with near average rainfall for northern California but somewhat below average for central and southern California. Temperatures will run marginally above average.

 

Wind Discussion:  Winds will be out of the northwest through this evening at 10 to 20 mph. Stronger gusts are possible, mainly along the west side. Winds later this evening will decrease to around 5 to 10 mph with periods of near calm conditions after midnight. Winds Friday through Sunday will be generally at or less than 7 mph with periods of near calm conditions.

 

Rain Discussion: A narrow band of light showers  is currently moving down the valley. Doppler radar indicates this band is narrowing as it moves into the south valley. Light showers will be over by mid morning. From this afternoon through the next seven to ten days, dry conditions can be expected. Rainfall amounts from this morning’s event will be no more than .10 with possibly just trace amounts in Kern County.

 

Frost Discussion: A  weak cold front is currently moving down the valley with a band of light showers. Behind this front is a colder air mass which is wrapping around the back side of a low pressure system moving through the Great Basin. Typically, the first night after a cold front passes, upslope clouds are generated by a north to northwest flow of air moving down the valley. Cloud cover and wind conditions will be the main forecast challenges for tonight. Where a decent amount of cloud cover is present, readings will be above freezing. In areas where skies have cleared out, widespread low to mid 30s will prevail. There is a small chance a few locations could dip into the upper 20s where winds are calm and skies are clear. For Saturday through Monday, coldest locations will dip into the upper 20s, possibly down to 27 to 28 in unprotected frost pockets with most other locations ranging from 29 to 33. Of course. All this hinges on the coverage of fog and low clouds. Conditions will become more favorable for fog formation over the weekend as a warm air inversion develops. A dry pattern will continue for all of next week, favoring a combination of frost and fog. Fortunately, this is more of a typica mid-winter frost event.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

31

Porterville

30

Ivanhoe

29

Woodlake

31

Strathmore

31

McFarland

30

Ducor

32

Tea Pot Dome

30

Lindsay

29

Exeter

31

Famoso

af

Madera

af

Belridge

32

Delano

31

North Bakersfield

31

Orosi

30

Orange Cove

31

Lindcove

30

Lindcove Hillside

af

Sanger River Bottom

28

Root creek

29

Venice Hill

30

Rosedale

33

Jasmine

32

Arvin

af

Lamont

af

Plainview

31

Mettler

31

Edison

af

Maricopa

32

Holland Creek

31

Tivy Valley

af

Kite Road South

31

Kite Road North

af

AF=Above Freezing

 

Actual humidity values for Porterville 100%/61%, Delano  97%61%.  Mid afternoon dew points: Upper 30s to the lower 40s.  Kern: Upper 30s to the lower 40s.

ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .27, Parlier, .23, Arvin .32, Porterville .23, Delano .27  Soil temperatures: Stratford 55, Parlier 52, Arvin 54, Porterville 50, Delano 51 *=data missing.

Average Temperatures: 56/38  Record Temperatures: 73/24

Heating Degree Days This Season.  1317 -48 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno  9.15, 204%  of average, Monthly  3.90

Precipitation for Bakersfield:  Season: 3.98, 155%  of average,   Monthly:  1.63

Average Temperature This Month  51.6 +5.3 Taken NWS Hanford.

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove NA, Parlier 816,  Arvin 680 Belridge 756, Shafter 783, Stratford 785,  Delano 811,  Porterville  785  courtesy UC Davis

Sunrise 7:09 Sunset, 5:11, hours of daylight, 10:02.

Yesterday’s Weather:                   H        L         R

MCE   : Merced AP        153 :  54 /  34 /  0.00 /

MAE   : Madera AP        253 :  56 /  36 /  0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno AP        333 :  55 /  37 /  0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford AP       242 :  57 /  33 /  0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore NAS      234 :  55 /  32 /  0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield AP   496 :  56 /  37 /  0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia AP       292 :  56 /  33 /  0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville AP   442 :  58 /  35 /  0.00 /

 

Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th

                                            SEAS.     %     LY      %        AVE      YEAR

STOCKTON                      0.00   15.26   251    8.21   135     6.08    13.45

MODESTO                       0.00   13.29   247    8.15   152     5.37    12.27

MERCED                        0.00   12.70   255    5.85   117     4.99    11.80

MADERA                        0.00    4.59   104    1.52    34     4.41    10.79

FRESNO                        0.00    9.15   202    5.21   115     4.54    10.99

HANFORD                       0.00    6.77   196    4.61   134     3.45     8.13

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    3.99   153    3.56   136     2.61     6.36

BISHOP                        0.00    8.57   414    4.50   217     2.07     4.84

DEATH VALLEY NP               0.00    0.39    57       M     M     0.68     2.20

SALINAS                       0.00    8.80   160    6.11   111     5.50    12.58

PASO ROBLES                   0.00   12.70   251    7.34   145     5.05    12.15

SANTA MARIA                   0.00   13.27   248    6.26   117     5.36    13.32

 

 

Nest report: January 19 afternoon

At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.