January 26, 2023
A large ridge of upper level high pressure continues to be anchored off the Pacific coast with one center off the southern California coast and another just west of the Oregon coast. A ridge extends northeastward into Washington and Oregon which, in part, is generating Santa Ana winds to our south. Fog is patchy again in various parts of the valley and will burn off into hazy afternoon sunshine by late morning to early afternoon. From this point on, we’ll be turning our attention more and more towards a pending freeze coming up possibly as early as Tuesday of next week. this is detailed in the frost discussion below. A low pressure system will develop in western Canada over the weekend then will drop southward through the Pacific Northwest then into northern California Sunday morning and central California Sunday afternoon. This is a dry system but will have enough dynamics to spread light snow showers down the Sierra Nevada and over the Kern County mountains Sunday night. Because of its origins, the pool of air associated with this system is very cold and will possibly bring snow levels down to 2,000 feet or so by early Monday morning. As the low moves into southeast California Monday, a north/northeast flow will develop, pumping in modified arctic air from western Canada and setting the stage for what may become a hard freeze beginning Tuesday morning with a greater risk of freeze on Wednesday and Thursday mornings. If there’s one piece of good news in the medium range forecast, it’s that the westerlies may break through pretty quickly behind the cold wave, hopefully shortening the amount of time we have to deal with it.
Forecast: Areas of night and morning fog and low clouds, otherwise hazy sunshine will prevail through Saturday night. Variable cloudiness Sunday leading to a slight risk of sprinkles or isolated light showers. A slight chance of a few showers Monday morning then clearing Monday afternoon. Partly cloudy and cold Tuesday. Mostly clear Tuesday night through Thursday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 61/32/60/33/59 | Reedley 62/32/61/33/60 | Dinuba 60/31/61/32/59 |
| Porterville 63/31/60/32/58 | Lindsay 62/30/60/31/59 | Delano 63/33/63/33/58 |
| Bakersfield 63/39/61/39/59 | Taft 61/40/61/41/58 | Arvin 63/35/60/35/59 |
| Lamont 62/34/61/35/59 | Pixley 61/32/60/33/58 | Tulare 61/31/60/31/59 |
| Woodlake 61/32/61/33/60 | Hanford 62/33/61/34/58 | Orosi 62/31/61/31/59 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Sunday
Slight chance of showers 35/59 |
Monday
Partly cloudy 34/52 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 28/49 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 27/51 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 29/54 |
Two Week Outlook: February 2 through February 8: Models continue to trend towards a pattern that would result in colder than average temperatures. The good news, however, is that this pattern also favors above average precipitation.
January: This model continues the trend of the season with a favorable pattern for rain for California. The best chance of rain in January will be over the northern half of the state. Temperatures will run marginally below average.
..
January, February, March: This model nudges the storm track further north with near average rainfall for northern California but somewhat below average for central and southern California. Temperatures will run marginally above average.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 7 mph late mornings and afternoons and variable in nature. winds during the night and morning hours will be light with extended periods of near calm conditions through Sunday.
Rain Discussion: There remains a minimal chance of a few light showers mainly Sunday afternoon and night from a very cold system dropping southward from western Canada. The greatest risk of measurable rain will be near the Sierra Nevada foothills or possibly the Kern County mountains. Any location that does receive rain will tally up no more than .10. Dry weather will return Monday.
Frost Discussion: For Friday through Saturday mornings, expect pretty much the status quo with widespread low to mid 30s and an isolated pocket or two in the upper20s. there will be a better chance of above freezing temperatures Sunday morning due to increasing cloud cover. That cloud cover is associated with a very cold and very dry low pressure system dropping southward from western Canada. Each model run that comes across my desk gets a bit stronger in pointing towards a freeze, and possibly a hard freeze.
Modified arctic air will invade California Sunday night and Monday, leading to subfreezing weather Tuesday through possibly Friday. Currently, I think it’s possible lows Tuesday, and possibly Wednesday, morning will lower down to 24 to 27 in the frost pockets and generally 25 to 26 degrees elsewhere. These are very tentative figures as the various players in this upcoming event have yet to be defined, so for now we’re speaking only in generalities.
There may be some good news in this evolving weather pattern. at least one model out of three is calling for a westerly flow aloft to take shape pretty quickly after the initial invation Sunday and Monday. we’re moving into February now, and that means a lot in terms of the duration of a freeze. So, it’s possible we could rebound by the following weekend.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
32 |
Porterville
31 |
Ivanhoe
30 |
Woodlake
31 |
| Strathmore
31 |
McFarland
30 |
Ducor
32 |
Tea Pot Dome
32 |
| Lindsay
30 |
Exeter
30 |
Famoso
32 |
Madera
32 |
| Belridge
30 |
Delano
31 |
North Bakersfield
31 |
Orosi
31 |
| Orange Cove
32 |
Lindcove
30 |
Lindcove Hillside
af |
Sanger River Bottom
28 |
| Root creek
30 |
Venice Hill
31 |
Rosedale
31 |
Jasmine
32 |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
31 |
Mettler
32 |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
32 |
Holland Creek
29 |
Tivy Valley
31 |
| Kite Road South
29 |
Kite Road North
31 |
AF=Above Freezing
Actual humidity values for Porterville 100%/62%, Delano 95%57%. Mid afternoon dew points: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Kern: Upper 30s to the lower 40s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .44, Parlier, .36, Arvin .40, Porterville .34, Delano .39 Soil temperatures: Stratford 51, Parlier 49, Arvin 51, Porterville 46, Delano 47 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 57/38 Record Temperatures: 72/24
Heating Degree Days This Season. 1453 -37 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 9.20, 189% of average, Monthly 3.95
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 3.99, 143% of average, Monthly: 1.64
Average Temperature This Month 49.8 +3.3 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove NA, Parlier 921, Arvin 780 Belridge 862, Shafter 889, Stratford 902, Delano 915, Porterville 884 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 7:05 Sunset, 5:19, hours of daylight, 10:12
Yesterday’s Weather: H L R
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 59 / 35 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 59 / 37 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 60 / 38 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 61 / 35 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 60 / 33 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 59 / 38 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 59 / 35 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 61 / 33 / 0.00 /
/Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
SEAS. % LY % AVE YEAR
MERCED 0.00 12.84 234 5.85 107 5.49 11.80
MADERA 0.00 M M M M 4.85 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 9.20 184 5.21 104 4.99 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 6.80 181 4.61 123 3.75 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.99 140 3.56 124 2.86 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 8.57 374 4.50 197 2.29 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.39 51 M M 0.76 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 8.90 146 6.11 100 6.09 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 12.75 226 7.34 130 5.65 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 13.33 224 6.26 105 5.95 13.32
Nest report: January 26 afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.