January 27, 2023
Upper level high pressure extends northward along the Pacific coast to another high center in the Gulf of Alaska. An elongated low center is picking up steam over British Columbia and is rapidly dropping southward. This feature is taking an overland path so it is A: moisture starved and B: very cold. As this system moves into northern California Saturday evening, light snow showers will spread over the mountains of northern California then down the Sierra Nevada and the mountains and deserts of Kern County Sunday and Sunday night. Snow levels will eventually drop to 2,000 feet, or possibly a bit lower, by early Monday morning. The chance of measurable rain on the valley floor remains minimal. Amounts of less than .10 seem plausible where rain does fall. A brief burst of modified arctic air will spread into California as the surface flow becomes northeasterly and the winds aloft become out of the north/northeast. This will spread modified arctic air over the region. Blended model information this morning spits out a 50% to 75% chance of temperatures of 28 degrees or below as early as Monday morning with Tuesday being the day of greatest risk. More is summarized in the frost discussion below. The good new is, if there is any such thing as good news in freeze events, this pattern will not linger long. In fact, it appears a weak trough of low pressure will move through around Thursday night or early Friday, turning winds aloft westerly and giving a chance of showers to northern California. Currently it’s 40% to 60% against central California.
Forecast: Other than occasional high clouds, it will be mostly clear through Saturday with patchy fog and low clouds. Partly cloudy Saturday night. Variable cloudiness Sunday and Sunday night with a minimal possibility of sprinkles or light scattered showers. Snow down to 2,000 feet or slightly below in the nearby foothills. Partly cloudy after patchy fog on Monday and turning cold. Mostly clear and cold Monday night through Wednesday. Increasing cloudiness Wednesday night. Variable cloudiness Thursday through Friday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 61/33/60/35/51 | Reedley 62/33/60/35/52 | Dinuba 61/32/60/34/51 |
| Porterville 62/32/59/35/51 | Lindsay 61/31/60/34/51 | Delano 63/34/59/35//53 |
| Bakersfield 62/38/60/38/51 | Taft 61/41/58/39/52 | Arvin 63/35/59/36/51 |
| Lamont 62/36/60/37/53 | Pixley 61/33/59/35/51 | Tulare 60/32/60/34/52 |
| Woodlake 61/33/60/35/51 | Hanford 62/34/60/35/51 | Orosi 61/33/60/34/52 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Monday
Variable clouds 33/50 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 27/49 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 27/52 |
Thursday
Partly cloudy 32/55 |
Friday
Variable clouds 34/60 |
Two Week Outlook: February 3 through February 9: This model shows the main storm track moving thoroughly mainly the Pacific Northwest, affecting northern California from time to time. The Desert Southwest, southern California, and off shore is governed by an area of high pressure.. this splits California in two with above average rain in northern California and below average in southern California. Temperatures will be pretty close to seasonal values.
January: This model continues the trend of the season with a favorable pattern for rain for California. The best chance of rain in January will be over the northern half of the state. Temperatures will run marginally below average.
..
January, February, March: This model nudges the storm track further north with near average rainfall for northern California but somewhat below average for central and southern California. Temperatures will run marginally above average.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 6 mph through Saturday, becoming light and variable Saturday night. From Sunday through Monday, winds will be out of the north/northwest at 8 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph along the western side of Merced County southward through Kings County. Strongest winds will be along the Interstate 5 corridor. Winds will diminish in all areas Sunday night with light, variable winds Monday.
Rain Discussion: A moisture starved, semi-arctic low pressure system is currently picking up a little steam in British Columbia and is racing southward. The low will move into northern California Sunday, taking an overland path through California into southern California Monday. the mountains will add enough lift to wring out light snow showers over the Sierra Nevada and over the Kern County mountains and deserts. There is a minimal chance of a few light showers over the valley floor, mainly Sunday night and early Monday. if anything, measurable does occur, it will likely be no more than a few hundredths upward to maybe .10. A weak trough of low pressure will move through Thursday night and Friday. for now, it appears this system will only affect northern California.
Frost Discussion: Currently, a rather short lived freeze appears likely Monday thorugh Wednesday. A semi-arctic low pressure system currently over British Columbia will race southward over California Sunday night and Monday. high resolution blended model information for the valley shows a 50% to 75% chance of readings of 28 degrees or below Monday and Tuesday mornings and possibly Wednesday. Model information for this time frame is not as good as I would like. For now, I would put the very coldest regions down to 24 to 26 degrees and most flat terrain territories down to 26 to 28 degrees with hillsides in the low 30s.
A lot of this will depend on cloud cover and the eventual plateau of dew points. Cloud cover may at least partially alleviate some of this event. In theory, this could result in a milder event. Wind conditions, especially along the west side, will also play its role.
We’ve been mentioning a trough of low pressure moving through late Thursday through Friday. That is still on, but how strong a push it will have out over the west to rid the valley of the modified arctic air is questionable.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
Af |
Porterville
32 |
Ivanhoe
31 |
Woodlake
Af |
| Strathmore
32 |
McFarland
31 |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
Af |
| Lindsay
31 |
Exeter
31 |
Famoso
Af |
Madera
32 |
| Belridge
31 |
Delano
Af |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
32 |
| Orange Cove
32 |
Lindcove
31 |
Lindcove Hillside
af |
Sanger River Bottom
29 |
| Root creek
30 |
Venice Hill
31 |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmine
Af |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
32 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
31 |
Tivy Valley
Af |
| Kite Road South
31 |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Actual humidity values for Porterville 100%/51%, Delano 97%47%. Mid afternoon dew points: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Kern: Upper 30s to the lower 40s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .45, Parlier, .41, Arvin .46, Porterville .40, Delano .43 Soil temperatures: Stratford 51, Parlier 49, Arvin 51, Porterville 46, Delano 47 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 57/38 Record Temperatures: 70/25
Heating Degree Days This Season. 1469 -38 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 9.20, 182% of average, Monthly 3.95
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 3.99, 123% of average, Monthly: 1.64
Average Temperature This Month 49.8 +3.2 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Orange Cove NA, Parlier 935, Arvin 794 Belridge 876, Shafter 904, Stratford 916, Delano 929, Porterville 898 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 7:04 Sunset, 5:20, hours of daylight, 10:14
Yesterday’s Weather: H L R
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 62 / 37 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 63 / 35 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 64 / 40 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 65 / 36 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 64 / 35 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 64 / 39 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 63 / 36 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 64 / 35 / 0.00 /
/Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
SEAS. % LY % AVE YEAR
STOCKTON 0.00 15.47 230 8.21 122 6.74 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 13.42 224 8.15 136 5.99 12.27
MERCED 0.00 12.84 231 5.85 105 5.56 11.80
MADERA 0.00 M M M M 4.92 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 9.20 182 5.21 103 5.05 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 6.80 179 4.61 122 3.79 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.99 138 3.56 123 2.90 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 8.57 369 4.50 194 2.32 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.39 50 M M 0.78 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 8.90 144 6.11 99 6.18 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 12.75 223 7.34 128 5.73 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 13.33 221 6.26 104 6.03 13.32
Nest report: January 27 afternoon
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