January 28, 2023
For another 12 to 18 hours, we will remain under the influence of upper level high pressure just off shore. By tomorrow at this time,, the high will have buckled and will have moved further west as a very cold low currently racing through Washington state begins to move over northern California. Light snow showers will spread over the mountains of northern California, eventually making their way down the Sierra Nevada with light showers spreading over the Kern County mountains and deserts. By Sunday evening, the center of circulation will be near Monterey. It’s at that time that our best chance of showers will occur even though the chance of measurable rain at any given location on the valley floor remains low. Snow levels over the nearby mountains will drop to near 2,000 feet Sunday night as modified arctic air spreads over our region. A brief north/northeasterly flow will follow the low into southern California, setting the stage for a freeze. This does not appear to be a critical situation. However, it does bear close scrutiny for potential wild cards. As the low enters northern Baja late Monday, the chance of any precipitation for central California will be over. Fortunately, the upcoming cold wave appears to be a short lived one as a weak trough of low pressure quickly turns the northeast flow to westerly on Wednesday. That trough will move into northern and central California Wednesday. For now, it appears any precipitation will remain to our north, though it does appear to be a close call.
Forecast: After the patchy fog burns off this morning, it will be mostly clear and hazy today and tonight. Variable cloudiness Sunday and Sunday night with a minimal chance of scattered light showers. Becoming mostly clear and cold Monday through Tuesday. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Wednesday. Variable cloudiness Thursday through Friday. Partly cloudy Friday night and Saturday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 60/34/51/35/51 | Reedley 60/36/52/35/50 | Dinuba 58/35/52/37/51 |
| Porterville 59/35/51/35/50 | Lindsay 59/34/52/36/50 | Delano 59/35/51/37/50 |
| Bakersfield 58/39/52/38/49 | Taft 57/40/51/38/48 | Arvin 60/36/52/37/51 |
| Lamont 59/37/52/37/51 | Pixley 59/39/52/37/50 | Tulare 58/36/52/35/49 |
| Woodlake 59/37/51/37/51 | Hanford 58/37/52/37/51 | Orosi 58/36/52/37/49 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Tuesday
Mostly clear 28/50 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 29/51 |
Thursday
Increasing clouds 36/57 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 37/61 |
Saturday
Partly cloudy 37/60 |
Two Week Outlook: February 3 through February 9: This model shows the main storm track moving through mainly the Pacific Northwest, affecting northern California from time to time. The Desert Southwest, southern California, and off shore is governed by an area of high pressure.. this splits California in two with above average rain in northern California and below average in southern California. Temperatures will be pretty close to seasonal values.
January: This model continues the trend of the season with a favorable pattern for rain for California. The best chance of rain in January will be over the northern half of the state. Temperatures will run marginally below average.
..
January, February, March: This model nudges the storm track further north with near average rainfall for northern California but somewhat below average for central and southern California. Temperatures will run marginally above average.
Wind Discussion: Winds today will be light and variable through tonight. Winds Sunday and Sunday night will be mainly out of the north to northwest at 8 to 15 mph. Locally stronger gusts are possible along the west side, especially along the Interstate 5 corridor. Winds will be generally less than 6 mph Monday through Tuesday with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain Discussion: The best chance for measurable rain will occur Sunday afternoon and Monday evening. The chance of measurable rain at any given locations remains low and where precipitation does occur, less than .10 can be anticipated with possibly just a few hundredths. Dry weather will return Monday and continue through at least Wednesday night. A weak weather system will approach the coast Thursday with, again, a minimal chance of showers, mainly from Fresno north. This is also a very weak feature, so any amounts will be light. Other chances of rain will occur next weekend, but for now we’ll simply emphasize the word chance.
Frost Discussion: The catalyst for the upcoming cold weather event is currently in Washington state and will move southward over northern California Sunday with a pool of very cold, unstable air. By Monday morning, the center of circulation will be near us. As the system moves into southern California, a dry north/northeast flow will follow, allowing modified arctic air to move into the region.
Now that we’re close to the event, it appears readings down to the 26 to 28 degree range are likely in the coldest locations Monday and Tuesday mornings. It’s possible an isolated pocket out there could dip to 24 to 25. Most flatland locations will average 27 to 29 with hillsides near freezing. Fortunately, this will be a short lived event as a westerly flow will break through, ending the north/northeast flow as early as Wednesday although below freezing temperatures are also likely Wednesday morning.
After Wednesday, conditions will rapidly modify with readings moving back into the 30s. the storm track will be moving into northern California next weekend, allowing cloud cover to move in,, returning fairly mild conditions to the valley.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
Af |
Porterville
Af |
Ivanhoe
32 |
Woodlake
Af |
| Strathmore
Af |
McFarland
32 |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
Af |
| Lindsay
Af |
Exeter
Af |
Famoso
Af |
Madera
Af |
| Belridge
Af |
Delano
Af |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
Af |
| Orange Cove
Af |
Lindcove
Af |
Lindcove Hillside
af |
Sanger River Bottom
31 |
| Root creek
32 |
Venice Hill
Af |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmine
Af |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
Af |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
Af |
Tivy Valley
Af |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Actual humidity values for Porterville 100%/54%, Delano 95%50%. Mid afternoon dew points: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Kern: Upper 30s to the lower 40s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .46, Parlier, .43, Arvin .48, Porterville .42, Delano .45 Soil temperatures: Stratford 50, Parlier 48, Arvin 50, Porterville 45, Delano 46 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 57/38 Record Temperatures: 78/23
Heating Degree Days This Season. 1469 -38 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 9.20, 182% of average, Monthly 3.95
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 3.99, 123% of average, Monthly: 1.64
Average Temperature This Month 49.7 +3.1 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Parlier 947, Arvin 806 Belridge 889, Shafter 916, Stratford 929, Delano 942, Porterville 911 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 7:03 Sunset, 5:21, hours of daylight, 10:16
Yesterday’s Weather: H L R
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 61 / 38 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 62 / 36 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 63 / 40 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 63 / 36 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 64 / 41 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 63 / 39 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 61 / 38 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 64 / 37 / 0.00 /
/Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
SEAS. % LY % AVE YEAR
STOCKTON 0.00 15.47 227 8.21 120 6.82 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 13.42 221 8.15 134 6.07 12.27
MERCED 0.00 12.84 228 5.85 104 5.64 11.80
MADERA 0.00 M M 1.52 31 4.98 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 9.20 180 5.21 102 5.12 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 6.80 178 4.61 120 3.83 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.99 136 3.56 122 2.93 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 8.57 366 4.50 192 2.34 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.39 49 M M 0.79 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 8.90 142 6.11 98 6.26 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 12.75 219 7.34 126 5.81 12.15
SANTA MARIA T 13.33 218 6.26 102 6.11 13.32
Nest report: January 28 afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.