January 29, 2023
The center of circulation of a cold arctic type low is currently over the northern Sacramento Valley and is moving southward. Light snow showers have spread over the northern mountains of California and the Sierra Nevada from Tahoe north. A few showers are now breaking out over the central Sacramento Valley. This compact little low has dropped the freezing level over Oakland this morning down to 3,400 feet. That will drop further as the pool of cold air continues to drop southward. There are some minor changes with this system. First of all, it does seem to have more potential now to drop measurable rain on the valley floor. models do not indicate this system to be quite as cold as earlier projections had depicted. This is detailed below in the frost discussion. Also, it looks like it will move more over water, meaning there will be a better chance of showers and considerably more cloud cover over the valley tonight. This means we may miss that first night of the freeze due to heavier than expected cloud cover so Tuesday and possibly Wednesday appear to be the coldest in this series, and even then it won’t be quite as cold as earlier thought. This little low will track steadily southward along the central coast and eventually will settle over northwest Baja. The best chance of measurable rain will be this afternoon and roughly the first half of the night tonight. High resolution modeling now gives Porterville a 39% chance of rain with a total of .11. Not exactly a gully washer, but we’ll take it. By Wednesday evening, a trough of low pressure will be approaching the west coast, turning the winds from the currently northeasterly direction to westerly, rapidly modifying conditions Thursday and Friday. The pattern for the coming weekend and beyond indicates a series of weak disturbances will be moving generally from west to east across California, resulting in minor chances of rain from time to time.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy this morning. A chance of showers this afternoon and for the first half of the night. Partly cloudy Monday. mostly clear to partly cloudy Monday night through Wednesday. Variable cloudiness Wednesday night through Sunday. A chance of showers from Merced north Thursday.
Temperatures:
Madera 54/35/53/29/55 | Reedley 54/36/52/29/54 | Dinuba 53/35/52/29/53 |
Porterville 54/36/53/28/55 | Lindsay 53/36/51/28/54 | Delano 55/38/52/30/55 |
Bakersfield 54/38/51/33/54 | Taft 53/38/49/34/51 | Arvin 55/38/53/31/55 |
Lamont 54/37/50/33/54 | Pixley 53/37/51/29/53 | Tulare 52/36/52/28/53 |
Woodlake 53/37/50/30/54 | Hanford 54/38/53/29/55 | Orosi 53/37/53/28/52 |
Seven Day Forecast
Wednesday
Patchy fog 30/54 |
Thursday
Mostly cloudy 32/55 |
Friday
Mostly cloudy 35/62
|
Saturday
Mostly cloudy 37/61 |
Sunday
Partly cloudy 38/62 |
Two Week Outlook: February 5 through February 11: This model favors wet weather for central California, mainly weak disturbances resulting in wet weather from time to time with below average temperatures.
January: This model continues the trend of the season with a favorable pattern for rain for California. The best chance of rain in January will be over the northern half of the state. Temperatures will run marginally below average.
..
January, February, March: This model nudges the storm track further north with near average rainfall for northern California but somewhat below average for central and southern California. Temperatures will run marginally above average.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be mainly out of the northwest today at around 8 to 15 mph. Stronger gusts are possible along the far west side. Winds later tonight through Wednesday will be generally less than 6 mph with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain Discussion: Light showers will spread over the valley this afternoon, continuing for a time tonight.. due to the scattered nature of the precipitation, amounts will vary widely, ranging from nothing to possibly as much as .10 to .15. the showers will end later tonight with dry weather Monday through Wednesday night. Models vary on the intensity of a trough of low pressure approaching the coast Thursday. For now, it does appear there’s a chance of showers from Merced north with a greatly reduced chance further south. The medium range outlook appears somewhat unsettled with weak disturbances running from west to east across northern and central California, giving at least a light chance of showers from time to time.
Frost Discussion: This morning’s models have changed the fundamentals of the incoming system somewhat. This story is tracking partially overwater, meaning there will be a great deal more cloud cover tonight, holding most locations above freezing. So just like that, this subtle change in the pattern has eliminated one of the nights we were concerned about. Also, for Tuesday morning, models show temperatures to be not quite as cold. It appears the threshold of this air mass will give the potential for lows down to 27 to 28 or so with most locations from 29 to 33 which is a far cry from what we’ve been discussion.
Wednesday morning will see upper 20s and lower 30s then low to mid 30s Thursday. On Thursday, the flow aloft will become westerly, pumping in much milder air aloft and ending any frost or freeze threat. Medium range models also show a westerly flow with periodic unsettled conditions, maintaining above freezing conditions longer term.
Lows Tonight:
Terra Bella
Af |
Porterville
Af |
Ivanhoe
Af |
Woodlake
Af |
Strathmore
Af |
McFarland
Af |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
Af |
Lindsay
Af |
Exeter
Af |
Famoso
Af |
Madera
Af |
Belridge
Af |
Delano
Af |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
Af |
Orange Cove
Af |
Lindcove
Af |
Lindcove Hillside
af |
Sanger River Bottom
Af |
Root creek
Af |
Venice Hill
Af |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmine
Af |
Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
Af |
Mettler
Af |
Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
Af |
Tivy Valley
Af |
Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Actual humidity values for Porterville 100%/62%, Delano 99%54%. Mid afternoon dew points: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Kern: Upper 30s to the lower 40s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .47, Parlier, .45, Arvin .49, Porterville .43, Delano .46 Soil temperatures: Stratford 50, Parlier 48, Arvin 50, Porterville 45, Delano 46 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 57/38 Record Temperatures: 73/24
Heating Degree Days This Season. 1502 -39 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 9.20, 178% of average, Monthly 3.95
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 3.99, 134% of average, Monthly: 1.64
Average Temperature This Month 49.7 +3.0 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Parlier 960, Arvin 818 Belridge 902, Shafter 928, Stratford 942, Delano 955, Porterville 924 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 7:03 Sunset, 5:22, hours of daylight, 10:18
Yesterday’s Weather: H L R
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 61 / 38 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 60 / 37 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 61 / 41 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 62 / 39 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 62 / 37 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 59 / 38 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 59 / 38 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 61 / 38 / 0.00 /
Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
SEAS. % LY % AVE YEAR
STOCKTON 0.00 15.47 224 8.21 119 6.91 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 13.42 218 8.15 133 6.15 12.27
MERCED 0.00 12.84 225 5.85 102 5.71 11.80
MADERA 0.00 M M M M M 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 9.20 178 5.21 101 5.18 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 6.80 176 4.61 119 3.87 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 3.99 134 3.56 120 2.97 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 8.57 362 4.50 190 2.37 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.39 49 M M 0.80 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 8.90 140 6.11 96 6.35 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 12.75 216 7.34 124 5.90 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 13.33 215 6.26 101 6.19 13.32
Nest report: January 30 morning
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.