January 31, 2023
A layer of low clouds covered most of Kern and Tulare Counties overnight, allowing for above freezing temperatures there. Skies were clear in Madera and Fresno Counties and much of Kings County where temperatures fell into the upper 20s to the low 30s. currently, Bakersfield is reporting overcast skies based at 2800 feet. Porterville is also reporting a low overcast based at 2600 feet. drier air will slowly infiltrate from the north, allowing these clouds to mix out, leading to a mostly clear night tonight with Kern and Tulare Counties joining the rest of the valley with below freezing temperatures. The northeast flow currently in place over California will be replaced by a westerly flow by Wednesday evening as a weak trough of low pressure moves inland Thursday night and Friday. It appears the bulk of the precipitation from this system will remain mainly over northern California with a minimal chance of light showers down to a Monterey/Merced/Yosemite line. A weak ridge of high pressure will build in from the west Saturday ahead of a more substantial low pressure system off the Oregon/northern California coast Sunday. The risk of showers for the valley is higher with this system from roughly the Kern County mountains north. Upper level high pressure will build in by late Monday for several days of dry weather. Models after the 7th of February are indicating the possibility of a wet pattern setting up. The two week model also reflects this trend, so hopefully we can add more precipitation to the season.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy for a time this morning in Kern and Tulare Counties, gradually clearing this afternoon. Mostly clear skies elsewhere. Mostly clear tonight through Wednesday night. Increasing clouds Thursday. Mostly cloudy Thursday night and Friday with a minimal chance of light showers from Merced north Friday night. Partly cloudy Saturday and Saturday night. Mostly cloudy Sunday with an increasing chance of light showers Sunday and Sunday night, mainly north of Kern County. Partly cloudy Monday. mostly clear Monday night and Tuesday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 54/30/61/32/64 | Reedley 55/30/61/31/64 | Dinuba 54/29/60/32/63 |
| Porterville 53/29/60/32/63 | Lindsay 54/29/61/31/63 | Delano 53/30/61/32/65 |
| Bakersfield 52/35/61/37/65 | Taft 53/36/59/40/65 | Arvin 52/31/61/33/66 |
| Lamont 53/32/61/36/65 | Pixley 54/30/60/33/64 | Tulare 54/29/61/31/64 |
| Woodlake 55/30/60/32/63 | Hanford 55/30/62/33/64 | Orosi 54/29/61/31/63 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Friday
Mostly cloudy 37/64 |
Saturday
Partly cloudy 34/62 |
Sunday
Showers likely 40/62 |
Monday
Partly cloudy 38/60 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 34/56 |
Two Week Outlook: February 7 through February 13: This model favors wet weather for central California, mainly weak disturbances resulting in wet weather from time to time with below average temperatures.
January: This model continues the trend of the season with a favorable pattern for rain for California. The best chance of rain in January will be over the northern half of the state. Temperatures will run marginally below average.
..
January, February, March: This model nudges the storm track further north with near average rainfall for northern California but somewhat below average for central and southern California. Temperatures will run marginally above average.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 6 mph and variable in nature through Friday with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain Discussion: There is a minimal chance of light showers as far south as Merced County Friday. The best chance of precipitation over the next week will arrive Sunday through Sunday night. This far out, it appears showers will be likely mainly north of Kern County as a fairly strong low moves into the Pacific Northwest and northern California. Behind this system will be several days of dry weather, however models are indicating a more favorable pattern for wet weather late next week as high pressure moves off shore, allowing systems to move in from the west.
Frost Discussion: Last night was one of those classic upslope events with a low cloud deck maintaining above freezing temperatures over Kern County and much of Tulare County. Further north, skies are clear. Sanger and Orange Cove each dipped down to 28 degrees with most other locations between 29 and 32. Models show dry air slowly mixing out the low clouds in the south valley for mostly clear skies throughout the growing area tonight. Coldest locations will drop down to 27 to 28 degrees in those low lying spots with most flat terrain locations dropping down to 29 to 32. Hillsides will again be above freezing. Tonight’s inversion will be decent with temperatures at 34 feet generally at 4 to 8 degrees warmer. Slow moderation will begin Thursday morning with most locations coming in at the low to mid 30s. increasing amounts of cloud cover Friday and higher dew points will keep temperatures above freezing. A mild pattern will prevail over the weekend and well into next week for a continuation of above freezing temperatures.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
30 |
Porterville
29 |
Ivanhoe
28 |
Woodlake
30 |
| Strathmore
30 |
McFarland
29 |
Ducor
30 |
Tea Pot Dome
30 |
| Lindsay
28 |
Exeter
28 |
Famoso
30 |
Madera
30 |
| Belridge
29 |
Delano
30 |
North bakersfield
31 |
Orosi
29 |
| Orange Cove
29 |
Lindcove
29 |
Lindcove Hillside
af |
Sanger River Bottom
27 |
| Root Creek
29 |
Venice Hill
30 |
Rosedale
31 |
Jasmin
31 |
| Arvin
32 |
Lamont
32 |
Plainview
30 |
Mettler
32 |
| Edison
33 |
Maricopa
31 |
Holland Creek
32 |
Tivy Valley
29 |
| Kite Road South
32 |
Kite Road North
29 |
AF=Above Freezing
Actual humidity values for Porterville 100%/93%, Delano 100%82%. Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 30s. Kern: Low to mid 30s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .47, Parlier, .44, Arvin .42, Porterville .39, Delano .42 Soil temperatures: Stratford 50, Parlier 48, Arvin 50, Porterville 46, Delano 47 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 58/39 Record Temperatures: 75/26
Heating Degree Days This Season. 1540 -35 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 9.20, 178% of average, Monthly 3.95
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 3.99, 134% of average, Monthly: 1.64
Average Temperature This Month 49.4 +2.6 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Parlier 988, Arvin 841 Belridge 923, Shafter 951, Stratford 966, Delano 978, Porterville 946 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 7:01 Sunset, 5:24, hours of daylight, 10:22
Yesterday’s Weather: H L R
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 53 / 30 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 51 / 32 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 53 / 35 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 55 / 33 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 53 / 29 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 47 / 44 / 0.05 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 51 / 31 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 44 / 38 / T /
Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
SEAS. % LY % AVE YEAR
STOCKTON 0.00 15.50 219 8.21 116 7.08 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 13.43 213 8.15 129 6.32 12.27
MERCED 0.00 12.91 220 5.85 100 5.86 11.80
MADERA 0.00 M M M M 5.19 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 9.20 173 5.21 98 5.31 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 6.81 172 4.61 116 3.96 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.05 4.32 142 3.56 117 3.04 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 8.57 353 4.50 185 2.43 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.39 47 M M 0.83 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 8.97 138 6.11 94 6.52 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.06 12.82 211 7.34 121 6.07 12.15
SANTA MARIA T 13.35 210 6.26 98 6.36 13.32
Nest report: January 31 afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.