February 1, 2023
Temperatures at midday were running anywhere from 4 to 8 degrees warmer than yesterday north of Kern County. In Kern County, readings are roughly the same. A ridge of upper level high pressure is wrapping around a closed low over northwest Baja. This is the cause of the warming trend. Temperatures tonight will still be frosty, but will moderate by 1 to 3 degrees at most locations under mostly clear skies. Clouds will begin to increase from the west Thursday ahead of a weak trough of low pressure moving mainly through the Pacific Northwest and northern California. The southern flank of this system is quite weak, so just a slight chance of showers exists as far south as Merced County. This system is effectively generating a westerly flow, replacing the cold northerly flow of the past few days. A very short lived high pressure system will move in Friday night and Saturday before a stronger low moves in Saturday night and Sunday. This system has an excellent chance of spreading light showers down most of the valley with the possible exception of Kern County, although that will be borderline. Models continue to orient this system from southwest to northeast over the interior west with the back side of it hanging over California for at least a small chance of showers, mainly over the mountains, Monday. a closed low will develop over southern California Tuesday and will be pushed eastward by high pressure by the middle of the week. for now, it appears next week will be dry after Monday with the next chance of rain perhaps about Sunday and Monday of the following week.
Forecast: Mostly clear tonight. Becoming partly cloudy after midnight with patchy fog late. Partly cloudy Thursday. Increasing cloudiness Thursday night. Variable cloudiness Friday and Friday night with a chance of light showers as far south as Merced County. Becoming mostly clear Saturday. Increasing cloudiness Saturday night with a chance of showers after midnight. Showers likely Sunday, mainly north of Kern County, continuing Sunday night. A slight chance of showers Monday, mainly near the foothills. Partly cloudy Monday night and Tuesday with patchy late night fog.
Temperatures:
| Madera 31/64/41/65 | Reedley 32/64/42/65 | Dinuba 30/63/41/64 |
| Porterville 30/64/41/65 | Lindsay 30/65/41/64 | Delano 31/66/42/65 |
| Bakersfield 38/67/45/67 | Taft 42/65/45/65 | Arvin 34/64/43/65 |
| Lamont 35/65/43/65 | Pixley 32/64/43/65 | Tulare 30/63/42/64 |
| Woodlake 31/64/41/65 | Hanford 32/65/42/65 | Orosi 31/63/40/65 |
Wind Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 6 mph and variable in nature through Friday with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Models this afternoon have changed little from earlier runs. There remains a minimal chance of light showers down to Merced County late Thursday into Friday. If precipitation occurs, generally less than .10 will be measured. A stronger system will affect most of northern and central California later Saturday night through Sunday night. Most of the valley will receive measurable rain, ranging from near .25 in Merced County, sloping to just trace amounts in Kern County. I want to keep a slight chance of light showers in the forecast for Monday morning, mainly near the mountains as the back side of the low will still be over California. For now, the rest of next week appears dry with a possible return to wet weather about a week from Sunday.
Frost: Temperatures as of midday are running 4 to 8 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago north of Kern County and in Kern County, readings are roughly the same. The freezing level taken this morning over Vandenburg had moved up to 8,200 feet. This isn’t horribly high, but it’s a good indication of warming in the upper atmosphere. There are also high clouds over the eastern Pacific which should begin to move overhead after midnight. They may be dense enough to have some affect. All in all, I think it’s a good idea to forecast on the cold side, just nudging temperatures up 1 to 2 degrees over last night’s temperatures. This will be the last night of this for a while as cloud cover will increase Friday morning ahead of an off shore system. Also, a westerly flow will displace that modified arctic air, meaning above freezing conditions will continue through the weekend. Coldest readings tonight will chill down to 28 to 29 degrees. Most locations will range in the low to mid 30s. the inversion tonight will be strong with temperatures at 34 feet generally 4 to 8 degrees warmer at most locations. After tonight, the next chance of frost may begin Tuesday morning as a fairly cold air mass dives southward. It’s not horribly cold, however, with readings dropping into the low to mid 30s Tuesday through Thursday of next week.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
30 |
Porterville
30 |
Ivanhoe
29 |
Woodlake
30 |
| Strathmore
30 |
McFarland
29 |
Ducor
31 |
Tea Pot Dome
30 |
| Lindsay
28 |
Exeter
28 |
Famoso
30 |
Madera
30 |
| Belridge
29 |
Delano
30 |
North Bakersfield
31 |
Orosi
29 |
| Orange Cove
30 |
Lindcove
29 |
Lindcove Hillside
af |
Sanger River Bottom
27 |
| Root Creek
29 |
Venice Hill
31 |
Rosedale
31 |
Jasmin
30 |
| Arvin
33 |
Lamont
32 |
Plainview
30 |
Mettler
32 |
| Edison
33 |
Maricopa
31 |
Holland Creek
32 |
Tivy Valley
29 |
| Kite Road South
32 |
Kite Road North
29 |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: February 2 morning
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