February 1, 2023
Strong radiational cooling led to subfreezing temperatures throughout the growing area overnight. Exeter, Lindsay, Porterville, and Maricopa all chilled down to 27 with several other locations ranging from 28 to 32. Tonight will also be cold with perhaps 1 to 3 degrees of moderation due to a ridge of upper level high pressure building in from the west. Currently, there’s a high center just off shore with a ridge extending into northern California and Oregon while a low center is over central Baja but is moving eastward. The high will be directly overhead tonight and Thursday morning. The trough will move inland late Thursday night and Friday. The dynamics of the trough over central California look pretty weak, so I still feel precipitation will extend no further south than a Monterey/Merced/Yosemite line. This system will turn winds aloft westerly, moving milder air into the region and ending the subfreezing temperatures. A stronger low will move to a position off the Oregon coast Saturday night, extending a trough into central California. For the third day in a row, most models show showers spreading into the south valley, although amounts will be quite light. The southern portion of the low will hang back Monday for a small chance of showers. Upper level high pressure will build in from the west beginning Monday night for what appears to be a dry week next week. a northerly flow will develop the first half of the week, pushing temperatures back to near to marginally below average.
Forecast: Patchy fog this morning, otherwise it will be mostly clear through tonight. Partly cloudy Thursday. Increasing cloudiness Thursday night. A chance of light showers as far south as Merced County late Thursday night and Friday. Partly cloudy Friday night and Saturday with patchy fog. increasing cloudiness Saturday evening with showers spreading southward later Saturday night through Sunday night. a slight chance of showers Monday. partly cloudy Monday night through Wednesday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 61/30/64/39/66 | Reedley 62/30/64/38/65 | Dinuba 60/29/64/38/64 |
| Porterville 62/29/64/39/66 | Lindsay 61/29/64/38/64 | Delano 62/30/66/39/66 |
| Bakersfield 61/36/66/43/65 | Taft 60/42/65/45/64 | Arvin 62/33/66/41/65 |
| Lamont 61/33/64/40/65 | Pixley 60/30/64/39/65 | Tulare 61/28/64/37/64 |
| Woodlake 61/30/66/38/65 | Hanford 61/30/64/38/65 | Orosi 60/29/64/38/64 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Saturday
Partly cloudy 39/65 |
Sunday
Showers likely 43/65 |
Monday
Mostly cloudy 40/60 |
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 36/57 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 34/59 |
Two Week Outlook: February 7 through February 13: This model favors wet weather for central California, mainly weak disturbances resulting in wet weather from time to time with below average temperatures.
January: This model continues the trend of the season with a favorable pattern for rain for California. The best chance of rain in January will be over the northern half of the state. Temperatures will run marginally below average.
..
January, February, March: This model nudges the storm track further north with near average rainfall for northern California but somewhat below average for central and southern California. Temperatures will run marginally above average.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 6 mph and variable in nature through Saturday with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain Discussion: A weak trough of low pressure will move through the valley Thursday night and Friday. This will not be much of an event with light showers spreading as far south as Merced County and the remainder of the valley staying dry. A stronger low will approach Oregon and northern California Saturday night and Sunday. Models have been consistent on this, showing showers moving down the valley Saturday night and continuing Sunday. This far out, it looks like amounts will be pretty light. Rainfall amounts ranging from roughly .25 in Merced County sloping to .10 in Fresno County and no more than a few hundredths in Kern County, if that. Models do show the back side of this system hanging back over California for a time Monday for a slight chance of showers. For now, the remainder of next week appears dry.
Frost Discussion: Widespread subfreezing temperatures occurred overnight. Exeter, Porterville, Lindsay, and Maricopa all chilled down to 27 as of 6:00am with many other locations ranging from 28 to 32. Subfreezing temperatures can be expected tonight with perhaps 1 to 3 degrees of moderation. Coldest locations tonight will dip to 28 to 29 with most flat terrain regions seeing temps of 30 to 33 degrees and hillsides coming in above freezing. Tonight’s inversion will be decent with temperatures at 34 feet from 4 to 8 degrees warmer at most locations. Friday morning will see most, if not all, locations above freezing due to increasing cloudiness and a westerly flow delivering milder air. Above freezing temperatures are likely Saturday through Monday. a northerly flow will develop behind Sunday’s low pressure system which may lead to some low to mid 30s beginning Tuesday and possibly lasting through Thursday of next week. there is still nothing on models suggesting critically cold temperatures on the horizon.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
30 |
Porterville
30 |
Ivanhoe
29 |
Woodlake
30 |
| Strathmore
30 |
McFarland
29 |
Ducor
31 |
Tea Pot Dome
30 |
| Lindsay
28 |
Exeter
28 |
Famoso
30 |
Madera
30 |
| Belridge
29 |
Delano
30 |
North Bakersfield
31 |
Orosi
29 |
| Orange Cove
30 |
Lindcove
29 |
Lindcove Hillside
af |
Sanger River Bottom
27 |
| Root Creek
29 |
Venice Hill
31 |
Rosedale
31 |
Jasmin
30 |
| Arvin
33 |
Lamont
32 |
Plainview
30 |
Mettler
32 |
| Edison
33 |
Maricopa
31 |
Holland Creek
32 |
Tivy Valley
29 |
| Kite Road South
32 |
Kite Road North
29 |
AF=Above Freezing
Actual humidity values for Porterville 100%/57%, Delano 100%52%. Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 30s. Kern: Low to mid 30s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .48, Parlier, .43, Arvin .43, Porterville .38, Delano .42 Soil temperatures: Stratford 50, Parlier 48, Arvin 50, Porterville 46, Delano 47 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 58/39 Record Temperatures: 73/25
Heating Degree Days This Season. 1540 -35 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 9.20, 171% of average, Monthly 3.95
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 3.99, 140% of average, Monthly: 1.64
Average Temperature This Month 49.2 +2.4 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Parlier 1005, Arvin 864 Belridge 941, Shafter 971, Stratford 983, Delano 999, Porterville 970 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 7:00 Sunset, 5:25, hours of daylight, 10:24
Yesterday’s Weather: H L R
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 53 / 32 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 54 / 34 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 54 / 36 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 55 / 33 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 56 / 30 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 54 / 37 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 54 / 34 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 57 / 33 / 0.00 /
Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
SEAS. % LY % AVE YEAR
STOCKTON 0.00 15.50 216 8.21 115 7.17 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 13.43 210 8.15 127 6.40 12.27
MERCED 0.00 12.91 217 5.85 98 5.94 11.80
MADERA 0.00 4.86 92 1.52 29 5.26 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 9.20 171 5.21 97 5.38 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 6.81 170 4.61 115 4.00 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 4.32 140 3.56 116 3.08 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 8.57 348 4.50 183 2.46 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.39 46 M M 0.85 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 8.97 136 6.11 92 6.61 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 12.82 208 7.34 119 6.15 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 13.35 207 6.26 97 6.45 13.32
Nest report: February 1 afternoon
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