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February 3, 2023 report

February 3, 2023

A trough of low pressure extends from Washington state due southward into northern and central California and is now moving eastward. Mostly light precipitation has spread over northern California, extending southwestward as far south as Monterey along the coast. A few light showers struggled into Merced County. As expected, the upper air support has really diminished over the southern half of the valley, although it wouldn’t be a total shock to see some sprinkles or an isolated light shower make it into Fresno County. A relatively fast moving ridge of high pressure will follow tonight and Saturday before a more substantial trough extends from off the British Columbia coast southward to off the central coast by Saturday evening. Showers will spread over the valley Saturday night, continuing on and off through late Sunday evening before tapering off. The air mass spreading in behind this system is cooler and models show the dynamics are borderline on a few isolated thunderstorms over the northern half of the valley Sunday afternoon. Rainfall amounts from this event won’t be horribly heavy. More is discussed below in the rainfall summary. Upper level high pressure will orient southwest to northeast into the Pacific Northwest and northern California Monday, creating a north/northeast flow. The high will completely take over Tuesday through Wednesday. Another weak trough will move into northern California Thursday. This is a compact little system which poses just a minimal risk of light showers. For now, I think I’ll go with a dry forecast for this one and wait for more model information to be more precise. High pressure will quickly return Friday and Saturday. Models show a fairly large low off the northern California coast Sunday. It will move southward parallel to the coast, possibly spreading precipitation over much of California. Models also favor more active weather later down the road, so hopefully mid February will be wet.


Forecast: Mostly cloudy with a continuing risk of light showers from Merced County north and a slight chance of sprinkles or light showers as far south as Fresno County. Partly to mostly cloudy tonight and Saturday morning. Partly cloudy Saturday afternoon. Increasing cloudiness Saturday evening with showers becoming likely later Saturday night through Sunday evening. A slight chance of an isolated thunderstorm or two Sunday afternoon and evening. Mostly cloudy Monday. clearing Monday night. Mostly clear Tuesday through Wednesday. Mostly to partly cloudy Wednesday night and Thursday. Mostly clear Friday.



Madera 65/36/67/45/61 Reedley 66/36/66/45/58 Dinuba 64/37/66/45/59
Porterville 67/36/67/47/61 Lindsay 65/38/67/45/60 Delano 66/38/67/47/59
Bakersfield 67/41/67/47/59 Taft 65/44/65/48/58 Arvin 67/40/67/47/61
Lamont 66/40/67/47/60 Pixley 65/37/66/46/59 Tulare 65/37/67/45/59
Woodlake 65/38/67/45/60 Hanford 66/39/67/46/61 Orosi 65/38/66/45/59


Seven Day Forecast


Mostly cloudy



Mostly clear



Partly cloudy



Mostly cloudy



Mostly clear



Two Week Outlook:  February 9 through February 15: This model favors wet weather for central California, mainly weak disturbances resulting in wet weather from time to time with below average temperatures.


January:  This model continues the trend of the season with a favorable pattern for rain for California. The best chance of rain in January will be over the northern half of the state. Temperatures will run marginally below average.


January, February, March:  This model nudges the storm track further north with near average rainfall for northern California but somewhat below average for central and southern California. Temperatures will run marginally above average.


Wind Discussion:  Winds today will be mainly out of the southeast at 8 to 15 mph with stronger gusts possible north of Fresno County. Winds through the late evening hours will be out of the northwest at 5 to 15 mph, diminishing after midnight. Winds Saturday will be generally light and variable. Winds will be out of the south to southeast Saturday night at 8 to 15 mph with gusts to 20 mph possible along the west side and locally elsewhere. Winds Sunday afternoon and evening will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 mph with stronger gusts, diminishing later Sunday night with light winds Monday.


Rain Discussion: As of the time of this writing, light showers had penetrated into Merced County. Doppler radar was also indicating light sprinkles as far south as Fresno County. The bulk of the precipitation is now moving on shore from Monterey northward through the north bay counties. Most of the active weather today will be over Merced County with a chance of sprinkles or isolated light showers as far south as Fresno County with the south valley remaining dry. Some locations in Merced County could pick up .10 or so with lesser amounts further south. Dry weather will return tonight and Saturday, however the chance for rain will rapidly increase again Saturday night as a more substantial trough moves onshore. This system has enough dynamics to spread showers all the way down the valley. Rainfall will be generally light, although from Fresno County north .25 to .33 cannot be ruled out. Much of Tulare County could pick up a tenth or two. A rain shadow will be evident along jthe west side of the valley, so no more than a tenth is expected in that region. For now, it looks like dry conditions can be expected next week until possibly a week from Sunday with a rather large low will approach the northern California coast.


Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight, but possibly just slightly above in coldest locations. Above freezing conditions can be expected Sunday and Monday mornings, as well. The air mass moving down the back side of Sunday’s storm system is moderately cold. Low to mid 30s are possible from Tuesday through Friday mornings, although a weak system at mid week may nudge temperatures up a bit. Generally above freezing conditions look likely this coming weekend. Currently nothing on the longer range outlook is of concern.


Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella














Tea Pot Dome














North Bakersfield




Orange Cove




Lindcove Hillside


Sanger River Bottom


Root Creek


Venice Hill


















Holland Creek


Tivy Valley


Kite Road South


Kite Road North


AF=Above Freezing


Actual humidity values for Porterville 100%/45%, Delano  94%46%.  Mid afternoon dew points: Upper 30s to the lower 40s.  Kern: Upper 30s to the lower 40s.

ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .47, Parlier, .42, Arvin .43, Porterville .36, Delano .41  Soil temperatures: Stratford 49, Parlier 47, Arvin 50, Porterville 45, Delano 47 *=data missing.

Average Temperatures: 59/39  Record Temperatures: 77/25

Heating Degree Days This Season.  1598 -28 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno  9.20, 167%  of average, Monthly  3.95

Precipitation for Bakersfield:  Season: 3.99, 137%  of average,   Monthly:  1.64

Average Temperature This Month  46.3 -2.2 Taken NWS Hanford.

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Parlier 1023,  Arvin 879 Belridge 956, Shafter 996, Stratford 998,  Delano 1015,  Porterville  986  courtesy UC Davis

Sunrise 6:58 Sunset, 5:28, hours of daylight, 10:27


Yesterday’s Weather:                   H        L         R

MCE   : Merced AP        153 :  58 /  44 /  0.00 /

MAE   : Madera AP        253 :  63 /  45 /  0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno AP        333 :  64 /  46 /  0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford AP       242 :  62 /  42 /  0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore NAS      234 :  62 /  42 /  0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield AP   496 :  64 /  43 /  0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia AP       292 :  62 /  41 /  0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville AP   442 :  63 /  38 /  0.00 /


Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th

                                            SEAS.     %     LY      %        AVE      YEAR

STOCKTON                      0.00   15.50   211    8.21   112     7.35    13.45

MODESTO                       0.00   13.43   205    8.15   124     6.56    12.27

MERCED                        0.00   12.91   212    5.85    96     6.09    11.80

MADERA                        0.00    4.86    90    1.52    28     5.39    10.79

FRESNO                        0.00    9.20   167    5.21    95     5.51    10.99

HANFORD                       0.00    6.81   167    4.61   113     4.09     8.13

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    4.32   137    3.56   113     3.16     6.36

BISHOP                        0.00    8.57   340    4.50   179     2.52     4.84

DEATH VALLEY NP               0.00    0.39    44       M     M     0.88     2.20

SALINAS                       0.00    8.97   132    6.11    90     6.78    12.58

PASO ROBLES                   0.00   12.82   203    7.34   116     6.32    12.15

SANTA MARIA                   0.00   13.35   201    6.26    94     6.63    13.32



Nest report: February 3 afternoon

At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.