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Forecast

February 4, 2023 report

February 4, 2023

Weak high pressure currently over California will shift into the Great Basin this evening, allowing a pretty robust trough of low pressure…which currently extends from just off the British Columbia coast southward to just off the central California coast…to move inland tonight with most of the best dynamics moving through between midnight and 6:00am. While heavy amounts of rain are not  expected on the valley floor, the jet  stream will flank from southwest to northeast across central California, generating lift up and down the Sierra Nevada for heavy amounts of snow above 7,000 feet. As much as 2 feet of new snow is anticipated above 7,000 feet. After the cold front moves through early Sunday morning, the snow level will drop to roughly 4,000 feet. The same lift previously mentioned will result in the opposite effect on the other side of the valley, creating a rain shadow which will be most pronounced in Kern County. More in the rain discussion below. The system is moving fairly quickly so showers will wind down by Sunday evening. A few isolated thunderstorms may occur Sunday afternoon as colder, unstable air moves overhead. By Monday, a ridge of upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific will build inland for the first of what appears to be at least 6 days of dry weather. The air mass sweeping in behind the low is cooler, so local frost is a good best Tuesday through at least Thursday morning, although nothing serious is expected. We’re late enough in the year now where fog will just be patchy. Clearing may be slow as upslope clouds bank up against the north facing slopes of the Kern County mountains and the west facing slopes of the Sierra Nevada. For the third day in a row, some medium range models are placing a low off the northern or central California coast a week from tomorrow for our next shot at precipitation. Models are also showing storms moving out of the Gulf of Alaska towards California beginning about the following Wednesday with possibly more action down the road.

 

Forecast: Partly cloudy this morning with increasing cloudiness this afternoon. Rain spreading over the valley later this evening, turning into showers Saturday morning. A chance of showers Sunday afternoon with a slight chance of thunderstorms from Fresno County north. Partly to mostly cloudy Sunday night and Monday morning. Clearing Monday afternoon. Mostly clear Monday night through Saturday with patchy fog each morning.

 

Temperatures:

Madera 66/46/60/45/55 Reedley 67/47/58/36/54 Dinuba 66/46/57/37/54
Porterville 68/47/58/40/53 Lindsay 68/46/58/40/52 Delano 67/47/59/40/54
Bakersfield 68/49/59/42/54 Taft 67/50/59/42/52 Arvin 68/48/59/39/55
Lamont 67//47/60/40/55 Pixley 67/48/57/38/54 Tulare 65/46/57/37/54
Woodlake 66/46/59/36/55 Hanford 67/47/61/37/55 Orosi 65/45/59/36/54

 

Seven Day Forecast

Tuesday

Mostly clear

32/55

Wednesday

Mostly clear

33/60

Thursday

Mostly clear

34/62

Friday

Mostly clear

34/63

Saturday

Partly cloudy

37/65

 

Two Week Outlook:  February 11 through February 17: This model favors wet weather for central California, mainly weak disturbances resulting in wet weather from time to time with below average temperatures.

 

January:  This model continues the trend of the season with a favorable pattern for rain for California. The best chance of rain in January will be over the northern half of the state. Temperatures will run marginally below average.

 

January, February, March:  This model nudges the storm track further north with near average rainfall for northern California but somewhat below average for central and southern California. Temperatures will run marginally above average.

 

Wind Discussion:  Winds this morning will be generally light, becoming out of the southeast aat 8 to 15 mph this afternoon. From Fresno County north, winds tonight will be mainly out of the east at 10 to 15 mph and 8 to 15 mph south of Fresno County. Winds Sunday will be mainly out of the northwest at 8 to 15 mph, diminishing later Sunday evening and becoming light after midnight. Winds Monday through Tuesday will be generally at or less than 7 mph with periods of near calm conditions.

 

Rain Discussion: The chance of rain will begin to increase later this evening with the heaviest amounts falling between midnight and 6:00am. The rain will turn to showers Sunday morning, tapering off Sunday afternoon. There is a minimal chance of isolated thunderstorms Sunday afternoon, mainly from Fresno County north. There will be a distinct rain shadow along the west side and especially over Kern County, reducing amounts there. Rainfall amounts in wester Fresno and Kings Counties will be generally no more than a tenth or two with mostly less than a tenth in Kern County. Along the eastern flank of the valley, .25 to .33 seems plausible, possibly as much as .50 in Merced County. Dry weather will return Sunday night and last through at least Saturday of next week. models are still showing a low center off the northern or central California coast next Sunday, which theoretically would be our next chance of rain. Models are also showing energy moving out of the Gulf of Alaska towards California about a week from Wednesday, so that will be something for us to watch.

 

Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight. A few locations may dip into the lower 30s Monday morning, mainly from Fresno County north. The air mass wrapping around the exiting low is cooler and, with clearing skies this upcoming week, low to mid 30s are likely from Tuesday through Thursday with moderation towards next weekend.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

Af

Porterville

Af

Ivanhoe

Af

Woodlake

Af

Strathmore

Af

McFarland

Af

Ducor

Af

Tea Pot Dome

Af

Lindsay

Af

Exeter

Af

Famoso

Af

Madera

Af

Belridge

Af

Delano

Af

North Bakersfield

Af

Orosi

Af

Orange Cove

Af

Lindcove

Af

Lindcove Hillside

Af

Sanger River Bottom

Af

Root Creek

Af

Venice Hill

Af

Rosedale

Af

Jasmin

Af

Arvin

Af

Lamont

Af

Plainview

Af

Mettler

Af

Edison

Af

Maricopa

Af

Holland Creek

Af

Tivy Valley

Af

Kite Road South

Af

Kite Road North

Af

AF=Above Freezing

 

Actual humidity values for Porterville 96%/39%, Delano  90%31%.  Mid afternoon dew points: Upper 30s to the lower 40s.  Kern: Upper 30s to the lower 40s.

ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .48, Parlier, .42, Arvin .43, Porterville .36, Delano .40  Soil temperatures: Stratford 49, Parlier 48, Arvin 50, Porterville 46, Delano 47 *=data missing.

Average Temperatures: 59/39  Record Temperatures: 77/28

Heating Degree Days This Season.  1602 -33 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno  9.20, 167%  of average, Monthly  3.95

Precipitation for Bakersfield:  Season: 3.99, 137%  of average,   Monthly:  1.64

Average Temperature This Month  48.8 +0.2 Taken NWS Hanford.

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Parlier 1023,  Arvin 879 Belridge 956, Shafter 996, Stratford 998,  Delano 1015,  Porterville  986  courtesy UC Davis

Sunrise 6:58 Sunset, 5:29, hours of daylight, 10:29

 

Yesterday’s Weather:                   H        L         R

MCE   : Merced AP        153 :  62 /  39 /  0.00 /

MAE   : Madera AP        253 :  68 /  38 /  0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno AP        333 :  68 /  42 /  0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford AP       242 :  67 /  38 /  0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore NAS      234 :  67 /  37 /  0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield AP   496 :  66 /  41 /  0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia AP       292 :  66 /  37 /  0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville AP   442 :  68 /  37 /  0.00 /

 

Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th

                                            SEAS.     %     LY      %        AVE      YEAR

STOCKTON                      0.07   15.57   209    8.21   110     7.44    13.45

MODESTO                          T   13.43   202    8.15   123     6.64    12.27

MERCED                        0.00   12.91   209    5.85    95     6.17    11.80

MADERA                        0.00    4.86    89    1.52    28     5.46    10.79

FRESNO                        0.00    9.20   165    5.21    93     5.58    10.99

HANFORD                       0.00    6.81   164    4.61   111     4.14     8.13

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    4.32   135    3.56   111     3.20     6.36

BISHOP                        0.00    8.57   336    4.50   176     2.55     4.84

DEATH VALLEY NP               0.00    0.39    43       M     M     0.90     2.20

SALINAS                          T    8.97   131    6.11    89     6.87    12.58

PASO ROBLES                   0.00   12.82   200    7.34   115     6.40    12.15

SANTA MARIA                   0.00   13.35   198    6.26    93     6.73    13.32

 

Nest report:

At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.