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Forecast

February 9, 2023 repoort

February 9, 2023

Upper level high pressure is right above central California this morning with a ridge extending upwards into the Pacific Northwest. The descending motion of the air compressing downward toward the earth will result in additional warming today and Friday. In fact, warmest locations Friday afternoon may eclipse the 70 degree mark. The high will give way Friday night and Saturday to a trough of low pressure moving southward from western Canada. This trough will morph into a closed low situation over north central by Saturday morning. Scattered light snow showers will break out over the Sierra Nevada with a snow level near 4,000 feet. Sprinkles may occur over the valley floor Saturday. However, measurable rain is unlikely. This low will drop further south into northern Baja Sunday. The winds aloft will turn north/northeast, spreading a cooler air mass into the valley as temperatures drop back into the low to mid 50s over the weekend. The cooling trend will be further enhanced Tuesday and Wednesday as a trough of low pressure drops into the interior west with the west side of the trough right over California. This will generate a northeast flow of air into California Monday and Tuesday, setting the stage for subfreezing temperatures Wednesday and Thursday of next week. this air mass appears cold enough to allow coldest readings to dip into the upper 20s. The northeast flow aloft and an off shore surface flow will lower dew points to the level where a general frost event will be likely.

 

Forecast: Areas of dense fog nights and mornings. Otherwise it will be mostly clear through Friday night. Mostly clear to partly cloudy Saturday through Sunday with patchy fog. Variable cloudiness at times Monday through Wednesday and cooler with a slight chance of sprinkles or isolated showers Tuesday and Wednesday. Mostly clear with cold nights Wednesday night through Thursday.

 

Temperatures:

Madera 66/35/69/40/55 Reedley 67/36/70/40/55 Dinuba 67/37/69/41/56
Porterville 68/3p7/69/41/54 Lindsay 68/36/69/41/55 Delano 67/40/68/41/54
Bakersfield 68/43/70/43/54 Taft 67/45/70/42/53 Arvin 68/40/69/41/55
Lamont 68/39/69/41/55 Pixley 66/38/67/40/43 Tulare 65/36/67/38/54
Woodlake 67/35/68/39/55 Hanford 67/37/68/40/56 Orosi 67/37/68/40/54

 

Seven Day Forecast

Sunday

Partly cloudy

34/55

Monday

Partly cloudy

33/56

Tuesday

Slight chance of showers

37/63

Wednesday

Mostly clear

30/53

Thursday

Mostly clear

29/53

 

Two Week Outlook:  February 16 through February 22: This model shows an overall northwest flow during this time frame, resulting in slightly below average temperatures. It doesn’t show a trend towards wet or dry weather so we’ll call it like it is and go with near average precipitation.

 

January:  This model continues the trend of the season with a favorable pattern for rain for California. The best chance of rain in January will be over the northern half of the state. Temperatures will run marginally below average.

 

January, February, March:  This model nudges the storm track further north with near average rainfall for northern California but somewhat below average for central and southern California. Temperatures will run marginally above average.

 

Wind Discussion:  Winds through Friday will be generally at or less than 6 mph with periods of near calm conditions. Winds later Friday night and Saturday will be out of the north to northwest at 8 to 15 mph with stronger gusts. Winds Saturday night and Sunday will be generally out of the northwest at 5 to 10 mph, decreasing to light and variable by Sunday evening.

 

Rain Discussion: A moisture starved closed low will drop southward from western Canada and will be virtually right overhead Saturday. With the exception of the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada, measurable rain is unlikely, although sprinkles are possible Saturday. Another very minor possibility of sprinkles or isolated light showers will be possible Tuesday as a low center drops into the Great Basin with California flanked on the far western side of the low. Isolated showers could occur, although measurable precipitation is unlikely.

 

Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees Friday and Saturday mornings. A colder pocket of air will drop southward over California from a closed low moving through our region Sunday. An even colder pocket of air will arrive late Monday through Wednesday as a cold low drops into the interior west with California on its far western side. A northeast flow aloft will develop at midweek along with a strong off shore surface flow which will lower dew points. Upper 20s and lower 30s appear likely Wednesday through Friday of this upgoing week, although the threshold of this air mass is not quite clear yet. Upper 20s and lower 30s appear likely in at least the colder locations. This whole system could track further east than currently anticipated, but for now the basic parameters point in that direction. We’ll make adjustments as necessary.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

Af

Porterville

Af

Ivanhoe

Af

Woodlake

Af

Strathmore

Af

McFarland

Af

Ducor

Af

Tea Pot Dome

Af

Lindsay

Af

Exeter

Af

Famoso

Af

Madera

Af

Belridge

Af

Delano

Af

North Bakersfield

Af

Orosi

Af

Orange Cove

Af

Lindcove

Af

Lindcove Hillside

Af

Sanger River Bottom

Af

Root Creek

Af

Venice Hill

Af

Rosedale

Af

Jasmin

Af

Arvin

Af

Lamont

Af

Plainview

Af

Mettler

Af

Edison

Af

Maricopa

Af

Holland Creek

Af

Tivy Valley

Af

Kite Road South

Af

Kite Road North

Af

AF=Above Freezing

 

Actual humidity values for Porterville 100%/59%, Delano  97%55%.  Mid afternoon dew points: Upper Low to mid 40s..  Kern: Low to mid 40s..

ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .50, Parlier, .48, Arvin .54, Porterville .49, Delano .48  Soil temperatures: Stratford 50, Parlier 50, Arvin 51, Porterville 47, Delano 49 *=data missing.

Average Temperatures: 60/39  Record Temperatures: 78/27

Heating Degree Days This Season.  1691 -30 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno  9.83, 170%  of average, Monthly  .63

Precipitation for Bakersfield:  Season: 4.50, 136%  of average,   Monthly:  .18

Average Temperature This Month  48.6 -0.4 Taken NWS Hanford.

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: This product has not been available for several daysParlier 1023,  Arvin 879 Belridge 956, Shafter 996, Stratford 998,  Delano 1015,  Porterville  986  courtesy UC Davis

Sunrise 6:53 Sunset, 5:34, hours of daylight, 10:37

 

Yesterday’s Weather:                   H        L         R

MCE   : Merced AP        153 :  62 /  40 /  0.00 /

MAE   : Madera AP        253 :  62 /  39 /  0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno AP        333 :  63 /  43 /  0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford AP       242 :  63 /  38 /  0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore NAS      234 :  64 /  35 /  0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield AP   496 :  61 /  42 /  0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia AP       292 :  61 /  38 /  0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville AP   442 :  63 /  37 /  0.00 /

 

Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th

                                            SEAS.     %     LY      %        AVE      YEAR

STOCKTON                      0.00   15.75   200    8.21   104     7.89    13.45

MODESTO                       0.00   13.54   192    8.15   116     7.04    12.27

MERCED                        0.00   13.46   206    5.85    89     6.54    11.80

MADERA                        0.00    5.14    89    1.52    26     5.80    10.79

FRESNO                        0.00    9.83   166    5.21    88     5.91    10.99

HANFORD                       0.00    6.99   160    4.61   105     4.37     8.13

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    4.50   132    3.56   105     3.40     6.36

BISHOP                        0.00    8.73   323    4.50   167     2.70     4.84

DEATH VALLEY NP               0.00    0.39    39       M     M     0.99     2.20

SALINAS                       0.00    9.13   125    6.11    84     7.31    12.58

PASO ROBLES                   0.00   12.94   189    7.34   107     6.84    12.15

SANTA MARIA                   0.00   13.61   188    6.26    87     7.23    13.32

 

 

Nest report: February 9 afternoon

At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.