February 10, 2023
Today will be the last mild day we will see for a while. Warmer locations on the valley floor this afternoon will top the 70 degree mark before dropping back into the mid 50s Saturday. A low center over the Pacific Northwest is beginning to displace the high currently over California. This system’s origins are in western Canada and is taking an overland trajectory, thus it lacks any significant moisture. As that low moves over central California Saturday, lift over the mountains will set off scattered light showers, mainly over the higher elevations. Even though models indicate the chance of measurable rain on the valley floor is slight, we’ll go ahead and keep that minimal chance in the forecast for Saturday into Sunday morning before the low slides southward into southern California and eventually northern Baja by early Monday morning. A second system will follow a similar path with most of its dynamics just east of the Sierra Nevada. Another round of light showers is possible over the Sierra Nevada Tuesday into early Wednesday. This is a cold system and will deliver in a pool of very chilly air which will result in widespread frost coming up Wednesday through Friday mornings. Widespread upper 20s and lower 30s will be possible with even a few mid 20s. this is discussed in the frost section below. A dry northerly flow will follow which will maintain below average temperatures through Friday. There is also another slight chance of sprinkles or isolated light showers on Tuesday into early Wednesday although most locations will remain dry. Conditions for Wednesday afternoon into next weekend will be dry as California will be on the far eastern rim of high pressure off shore
Forecast: Areas of fog for a time this morning, mainly towards the center of the valley. Otherwise, it will be mostly clear. Becoming partly cloudy tonight. Variable cloudiness Saturday into early Sunday with a slight chance of sprinkles or isolated light showers. Becoming mostly clear Sunday afternoon. Partly cloudy Monday. variable cloudiness Monday night and Tuesday with a slight chance of sprinkles or isolated light showers Tuesday into Wednesday. Mostly clear and cold Wednesday afternoon through Friday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 70/39/55/34/56 | Reedley 71/38/55/34/56 | Dinuba 69/38/55/34/56 |
| Porterville 72/38/56/33/56 | Lindsay 71/38/54/33/56 | Delano 72/40/56/34/56 |
| Bakersfield 73/43/55/37/56 | Taft 72/43/53/39/56 | Arvin 72/40/57/34/56 |
| Lamont 71/39/55/35/56 | Pixley 70/38/56/34/57 | Tulare 70/37/54/34/57 |
| Woodlake 71/38/56/34/56 | Hanford 71/40/57/34/57 | Orosi 70/37/57/35/56 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Monday
Partly cloudy 33/57 |
Tuesday
Slight chance of showers 34/54 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 28/53 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 29/54 |
Friday
Mostly clear 31/57 |
Two Week Outlook: February 16 through February 22: This model shows energy moving up into southern California from lower latitudes for possible above average precipitation. temperatures for this time frame are projected to be somewhat below average.
January: This model continues the trend of the season with a favorable pattern for rain for California. The best chance of rain in January will be over the northern half of the state. Temperatures will run marginally below average.
January, February, March: This model nudges the storm track further north with near average rainfall for northern California but somewhat below average for central and southern California. Temperatures will run marginally above average.
Wind Discussion: Winds today will be generally less than 6 mph with periods of near calm conditions. Winds tonight will be out of the northwest at 8 to 15 mph. gusts over 20 mph are possible in western Fresno and Kings Counties. Winds will diminish later Saturday night, becoming light and variable Sunday. Another round of increased wind conditions is expected late Monday and Tuesday.
Rain Discussion: Models have changed little in projections for two separate low pressure systems. The first is currently moving out of the Pacific Northwest and will move into northern California tonight and over central California Saturday. This system will provide light showers to the mountain areas and a sight chance of light showers over the valley floor late Saturday into early Sunday. Mostly locations will likely see no precipitation. if any showers do develop, less than .10 can be anticipated. Another even colder system will drop out of western Canada and into the interior western US. Models continue to indicate California will be on the western flank of the low will light shower spreading down the Sierra Nevada Tuesday. Like its predecessor, sprinkles or light showers are possible over the valley floor Tuesday into early Wednesday. After Wednesday, several days of dry weather can be expected.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight. The first of two largely dry weather systems will drop into California Saturday and will cause temps to drop from the lower 0s today to the mid 50s Saturday. Lows Sunday will drop into the low to mid 30s in many locations. This is the first of two weather systems. The second is much colder and will arrive Tuesday with a small chance of isolated light showers as a very cold low drops into the interior west. A ridge of high pressure will build northward right along the west coast, creating a cold north/northeast flow right over California. This will drop dew points down into the lower 30s by Wednesday morning, possibly even into the upper 20s, setting the stage for widespread frost. The potential of the air mass coming up Wednesday into Thursday morning’s is lows down to 26 to 27 degrees in the coldest low lying, unprotected regions with readings of 28 to 31 over most flat terrain. Like any cold weather episode, the first night will likely see some cloud dover banking up against the Kern County mountains and the southern Sierra Nevada. We will simply have to approach this on a morning by morning basis. Some moderation is due Friday morning, but most locations will still be at or below freezing.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
Af |
Porterville
Af |
Ivanhoe
Af |
Woodlake
Af |
| Strathmore
Af |
McFarland
Af |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
Af |
| Lindsay
Af |
Exeter
Af |
Famoso
Af |
Madera
Af |
| Belridge
Af |
Delano
Af |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
Af |
| Orange Cove
Af |
Lindcove
Af |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
Af |
| Root Creek
Af |
Venice Hill
Af |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmin
Af |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
Af |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
Af |
Tivy Valley
Af |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Actual humidity values for Porterville 100%/56%, Delano 97%51%. Mid afternoon dew points: Upper Low to mid 40s.. Kern: Low to mid 40s..
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .53, Parlier, .50, Arvin .56, Porterville .52, Delano .51 Soil temperatures: Stratford 50, Parlier 50, Arvin 52, Porterville 47, Delano 49 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 60/40 Record Temperatures: 76/29
Heating Degree Days This Season. 1704 -32 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 9.83, 170% of average, Monthly .63
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 4.50, 136% of average, Monthly: .18
Average Temperature This Month 48.9 -0.2 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: This product has not been available for several days! Parlier 1023, Arvin 879 Belridge 956, Shafter 996, Stratford 998, Delano 1015, Porterville 986 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 6:52 Sunset, 5:35, hours of daylight, 10:41
Yesterday’s Weather: H L R
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 64 / 40 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 67 / 41 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 68 / 44 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 67 / 40 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 67 / 38 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 66 / 43 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 67 / 40 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 69 / 39 / 0.00 /
Rainfall totals from October 1st through September 30th
SEAS. % LY % AVE YEAR
STOCKTON 0.00 15.75 198 8.21 103 7.97 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 13.54 190 8.15 114 7.12 12.27
MERCED 0.00 13.46 204 5.85 89 6.61 11.80
MADERA 0.00 5.14 88 1.52 26 5.86 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 9.83 164 5.21 87 5.98 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 6.99 158 4.61 104 4.42 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 4.50 131 3.56 103 3.44 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 8.73 321 4.50 165 2.72 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.39 39 M M 1.01 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 9.13 124 6.11 83 7.39 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 12.94 187 7.34 106 6.92 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 13.61 186 6.26 85 7.33 13.32
Nest report: February 10 afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.