February 12, 2023
The first minimal chance of measurable rain has now passed as the low center has moved off into southern California. the second minor chance will come in the form of a very cold trough of low pressure which will stretch from Utah on the east to California on the west. This system will have its best chance of showers over the Sierra Nevada and, to a lesser extent, the Kern County Mountains Tuesday. In the unlikely event precipitation does happen to accumulate on the valley floor, no more than .10 is likely. What sets this little system apart is the fact that it is very cold with snow levels down to around 1,500 feet. Yet a third system will slide southward just off shore and will have a slightly stronger risk of measurable if the low tracks close enough to the coast on its trek southward Friday and Saturday. The most newsworthy weather this week will be overnight low temperatures Wednesday and Thursday mornings as modified arctic air is squeezed between an off shore high being squeezed northward along the coast and a low center over the Desert Southwest. Coldest locations on the valley floor Wednesday and Thursday mornings could drop into the mid to upper 20s. of course, this is discussed in the frost section below.
Forecast: Partly cloudy today. Mostly clear tonight and Monday. variable cloudiness Monday night and Tuesday with a slight chance of sprinkles. Mostly clear Tuesday night through Wednesday night and cold. Mostly clear Friday morning. Becoming partly cloudy Friday afternoon through Saturday with a chance of showers. Mostly clear Sunday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 58/34/64/34/52 | Reedley 60/33/63/33/52 | Dinuba 60/32/63/33/53 |
| Porterville 60/33/63/32/52 | Lindsay 61/33/57/32/52 | Delano 61/34/57/33/52 |
| Bakersfield 58/40/64/41/52 | Taft 58/42/64/41/52 | Arvin 61/35/64/51/54 |
| Lamont 61/36/65/38/55 | Pixley 59/37/64/34/52 | Tulare 58/35/65/34/55 |
| Woodlake 58/35/55/34/52 | Hanford 61/35/65/33/54 | Orosi 60/35/65/33/55 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Wednesday
Mostly clear 28/54 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 28/55 |
Friday
Chance of showers 35/56 |
Saturday
Chance of showers 38/58 |
Sunday
Partly cloudy 34/56 |
Two Week Outlook: February 16 through February 22: This model shows energy moving up into southern California from lower latitudes for possible above average precipitation. temperatures for this time frame are projected to be somewhat below average.
January: This model continues the trend of the season with a favorable pattern for rain for California. The best chance of rain in January will be over the northern half of the state. Temperatures will run marginally below average.
January, February, March: This model nudges the storm track further north with near average rainfall for northern California but somewhat below average for central and southern California. Temperatures will run marginally above average.
Wind Discussion: Winds today will be out of the northwest at no more than 5 to 12 mph. Winds Monday will be light and variabl winds late Monday night and Tuesday will increase out of the north/northwest at 15 to 25 mph. stronger gusts will be possible along the west side and mainly from Kern Coun5y north. winds Tuesday night will decrease to 4 to 8 mph with periods of near calm conditions after midnight. Winds Wednesday will be light and variable.
Rain Discussion: The next chance of rain will arrive Friday through Saturday as a low center drops southward right along the California coast and continues to drop just off shore Friday and Saturday. The chance of rain will be largely determined by how far off shore this feature remains on its journey south. If it remains fairly close to the coast, our chance of measurable rain will be fairly high. However, if the center of circulation js too far away, our precipitation chance will be lower. The region with the greatest risk of measurable rain will be the west side of the valley. Amounts of rain, if it rains at all will be no more than ja tenth or two.
Frost Discussion. The low now in place is relatively cold, but nothing to write home about. That will come later in the week. for Monday and Tuesday nights, readings will generally range in the low to mid 30s. the real cold weather will arrive Wednesday and Thursday mornings when a modified arctic low dives into the Great Basin with California ending up on its far western flan. As surface pressure falls over the interior west, gusty winds will increase on the valley floor, driving down dew points and allowing for strong radiational cooling Wednesday and Thursday mornings. For now it appears coldest unprotected river bottom and similar locations will drop down to 26 to 28 with most flat terrain regions chilling down to 27 to 30. Minor modification can be expected Friday morning with more over the weekend.
This event will be driven by wind. Gusty winds will move down the valley Tuesday and Tuesday night, driving dew points down into the 20s. cloud cover may also play a role as wind energy causses cloud cover to bank up against the north facing slopes of the Kern County mountains and the west facing slopes of the southern Sierra Nevada. Conditions the first night will be chaotic, thus Thursday may actually be the coldest of the two night event.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
Af |
Porterville
32 |
Ivanhoe
32 |
Woodlake
Af |
| Strathmore
Af |
McFarland
32 |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
32 |
| Lindsay
31 |
Exeter
31 |
Famoso
Af |
Madera
Af |
| Belridge
32 |
Delano
Af |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
32 |
| Orange Cove
Af |
Lindcove
31 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
30 |
| Root Creek
31 |
Venice Hill
31 |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmin
Af |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
32 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
Af |
Tivy Valley
Af |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Actual humidity values for Porterville 100%/41%, Delano 87%48%. Mid afternoon dew points: Upper Low to mid 40s.. Kern: Low to mid 40s..
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .55, Parlier, .51, Arvin .55, Porterville .54, Delano .52 Soil temperatures: Stratford 50, Parlier 51, Arvin 52, Porterville 48, Delano 50 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 61/40 Record Temperatures: 82/27
Heating Degree Days This Season. 1716 -35 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 9.83, 164% of average, Monthly .63
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 4.50, 136% of average, Monthly: .18
Average Temperature This Month 49.3 +0.1Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28:! Parlier 1084, Arvin 1092 Belridge 1019, Shafter 1050, Stratford 1070, Delano 1083, Porterville 1052 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 6:59 Sunset, 5:37,
hours of daylight, 10:45
Yesterday’s Weather: H L R
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 58 / 36 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 58 / 37 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 58 / 42 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 58 / 43 / T /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 59 / 42 / T /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 56 / 38 / 0.00 /
SEAS. % LY % AVE YEAR
STOCKTON 0.00 15.75 198 8.21 103 7.97 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 13.54 190 8.15 114 7.12 12.27
MERCED 0.00 13.46 204 5.85 89 6.61 11.80
MADERA 0.00 5.14 88 1.52 26 5.86 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 9.83 164 5.21 87 5.98 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 6.99 158 4.61 104 4.42 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 4.50 131 3.56 103 3.44 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 8.73 321 4.50 165 2.72 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.39 39 M M 1.01 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 9.13 124 6.11 83 7.39 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 12.94 187 7.34 106 6.92 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 13.61 186 6.26 85 7.33 13.32
Nest report: February 12 afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.