A rapidly moving very cold trough of low pressure is currently diving into the Great Basin. This trough will lead to a couple of very cold nights in the valley with subfreezing overnight low temperatures tonight. Temperatures will quickly fall over the Desert Southwest and southern California, leading to strong gusty winds in many areas this afternoon and, to a lesser extent, tonight. As these winds blow down the valley, they will drive down dew points, thus drying out the air tonight, leading to strong radiational frost. Coldest lows tonight will drop down to 25 to27 degrees. More is discussed below. The only area in central California to receive precipitation will be the high Sierra which will receive some slight snow showers up high. The main dynamics of this storm are east of the Sierra Nevada. However, California is under the far western edge of the low, meaning modified arctic air will mix down to the surface. Freezing levels are already pretty low with the sounding above Oakland this morning at 4,700 feet. To our north, snow is falling in places Ike Portland, Oregon this morning. The main body of low pressure will move into the Desert Southwest Wednesday, allowing a large eastern Pacific ridge of high pressure to build in Thursday. The next trough of low pressure will dig in along the west coast Friday. This system will morph into a low center west of the central coast Saturday. This is still a bit of a forecast teaser. The latest GFS model indicates the low will be too far off shore to bring precipitation over the valley floor, so we’ll remove that from Friday’s forecast. Models are still showing high pressure just off the west coast for at least the first half of next week.
Forecast: Partly to mostly cloudy skies south of Fresno County. Partly cloudy skies elsewhere. Becoming mostly clear later tonight. Mostly clear Wednesday through Friday night. Partly cloudy Saturday through Sunday. Mostly clear Sunday night through Tuesday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 54/28/53/28/60 | Reedley 54/29/55/28/59 | Dinuba 54/28/54/27/60 |
| Porterville 53/29/55/28/59 | Lindsay 54/27/54/26/60 | Delano 51/30/53/29/61 |
| Bakersfield 51/34/53/31/61 | Taft 50/34/57/35/58 | Arvin 51/34/53/30/60 |
| Lamont 51/34/52/29/61 | Pixley 52/28/53/28/59 | Tulare 52/27/53/28/58 |
| Woodlake 54/28/55/28/60 | Hanford 56/29/35/28/60 | Orosi 54/27/55/28/59 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Friday
Mostly clear 31/59 |
Saturday
Partly cloudy 33/61 |
Sunday
Partly cloudy 34/62 |
Monday
Mostly clear 39/64 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 36/65 |
Two Week Outlook: February 16 through February 22: This model shows energy moving up into southern California from lower latitudes for possible above average precipitation. temperatures for this time frame are projected to be somewhat below average.
January: This model continues the trend of the season with a favorable pattern for rain for California. The best chance of rain in January will be over the northern half of the state. Temperatures will run marginally below average.
January, February, March: This model nudges the storm track further north with near average rainfall for northern California but somewhat below average for central and southern California. Temperatures will run marginally above average.
Wind Discussion: Winds will increase this morning to 10 to 20 mph, increasing to 15 to 30 this afternoon and evening with gusts to 35 mph possible. Winds tonight will decrease to 10 to 20 mph with stronger gusts along the west side, becoming light on the east side during the predawn hours. Winds Tuesday will be generally at or less than 10 mph and variable. Winds Wednesday and Thursday will be generally at or less than 8 mph with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain Discussion: Expect dry conditions for the next week to possibly ten days.
Frost Discussion. Tonight will be a very tough night to forecast as we have mixing of the atmosphere, gusty winds, and cloud cover to consider. Already this morning there are upslope clouds banking up against the Kern County mountains and the southern Sierra Nevada. It’s always tough to determine if these winds will mix out during the night. The second challenge is in the form of wind as big differences in pressure, combined with jet stream energy aloft, will team up for our first real good spring wind event of the year. Winds will increase to around 10 to 20 mph later this morning, increasing to 15 to 30 mph this afternoon and evening. Gusts to 30 mph will be possible just about anywhere, but especially along the west side. As these winds drive down the valley, dew points along the west side will lower into the lower 20s on the west side and the upper 20s to lower 30s on the east side and 20s in Kern County. All this combined with modified arctic air will result in coldest locations tonight and again Wednesday night potentially falling to 25 to 27 and most flatland locations falling to 27 to 29 degree range with hillsides being just above freezing.
On top of all this, the inversion tonight will be quite weak with temperatures at 34 feet being only 1 to 4 degrees warmer, though that could improve later in the night.
Thursday morning may be the coldest of this two day event as winds will be light to calm and cloud cover will be sparce, at best.
The best chances of somewhat warmer temperatures tonight will be in Kern and Tulare Counties due to possible cloud cover. Some locations on the west side may turn out to be warmer due to wind conditions.
As you can see, there are many things that could be helpful tonight.
Temperatures Friday morning may be down to 29 to 31 with low to mid 30s over the weekend and beyond.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
39 |
Porterville
28 |
Ivanhoe
27 |
Woodlake
28 |
| Strathmore
28 |
McFarland
27 |
Ducor
29 |
Tea pot dome
28 |
| Lindsay
27 |
Exeter
26 |
Famoso
28 |
Madera
28 |
| Belridge
27 |
Delano
29 |
North Bakersfield
29 |
Orosi
28 |
| Orange Cove
28 |
Lindcove
28 |
Lindcove Hillside
21 |
Sanger River Bottom
25 |
| Root Creek
27 |
Venice Hill
28 |
Rosedale
29 |
Jasmin
28 |
| Arvin
33 |
Lamont
33 |
Plainview
28 |
Metter
28 |
| Edison
32 |
Maricopa
29 |
Holland Creek
30 |
Tivy Valley
27 |
| Kite Road South
30 |
Kite Road North
27 |
AF=Above Freezing
Actual humidity values for Porterville 100%/47%, Delano 93%39%. Mid afternoon dew points: Upper Low to mid 40s.. Kern: Low to mid 40s..
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .59, Parlier, .59, Arvin .60, Porterville .56, Delano .59 Soil temperatures: Stratford 50, Parlier 50, Arvin 52, Porterville 48, Delano 50 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 61/40 Record Temperatures: 70/25
Heating Degree Days This Season. 1761 -35 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 9.83, Monthly .63
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 4.50, 136% of, Monthly: .18
Average Temperature This Month 49.3 +0.0 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28:! Parlier 1110, Arvin 934 Belridge 1031, Shafter 1064, Stratford 1089, Delano 1099, Porterville 1069 courtesy UC Davis
hours of daylight, 10:49
Yesterday’s Weather: H L R
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 65 / 40 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 67 / 34 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 67 / 31 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 67 / 38 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 64 / 36 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / M / M /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 67 / 38 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DHM / M / M / M /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 66 / M / M / SEAS. % LY % AVE YEAR
STOCKTON 0.00 15.75 189 8.21 99 8.33 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 13.54 182 8.15 110 7.43 12.27
MERCED 0.00 13.46 195 5.85 85 6.91 11.80
MADERA 0.00 5.14 84 1.52 25 6.14 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 9.83 157 5.21 83 6.25 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 6.99 151 4.61 100 4.62 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 4.50 125 3.56 99 3.61 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 0.00 0 M M 4.86 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.39 36 M M 1.08 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 9.26 120 6.11 79 7.73 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 13.07 180 7.34 101 7.26 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 13.61 176 6.26 81 7.73 13.32
Nest report: February 14 afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.