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Forecast

February15, 2023 report

February 15, 2023

It’s a very cold morning out there as Fowler and Lindsay are each at 25 degrees, Strathmore 26, and many other locations are between 27 and 30. Similar conditions can be expected tonight with readings perhaps more uniform from place to place due to lack of cloud cover and near calm winds. Dew points should start to recover this afternoon. However, with a more stable environment, lows will likely be equally as cold. The very cold low which, in part, was responsible for the gusty winds and cold overnight temperatures has driven southeastward into the Four Corners region. A fairly narrow ridge of high pressure extends from off shore California northeastward to the Canadian Rockies while a low center is dropping southward off the Oregon coast.  It will move parallel to the California coast line, but too far off shore to really affect our weather. Temperatures will begin to moderate today, but more so Thursday and Friday as daytime highs begin to approach average values. Overnight lows, however, ,will remain below average due to a dry atmosphere and low dew points. Dry weather will continue through at least Tuesday night of next week. models are giving mixed signals in the pattern for Wednesday and beyond. The GFS is leaning towards a possible wet pattern while others show precipitation remaining north. A slight chance of showers is what I’ll currently go with for Wednesday of next week.

 

Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Friday with cold nights continuing. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Saturday through Sunday. Mostly clear Sunday night through Tuesday. Increasing cloudiness Tuesday night with a slight chance of showers Tuesday.

 

Temperatures:

Madera 53/29/60/30/61 Reedley 55/28/59/30/61 Dinuba 53/27/58/30/61
Porterville 53/28/59/31/61 Lindsay 53/27/59/30/60 Delano 53/29/60/31/61
Bakersfield 53/31/60/35/61 Taft 52/34/59/38/60 Arvin 53/29/61/31/62
Lamont 53/30/60/35/61 Pixley 53/29/60/31/61 Tulare 53/27/59/30/60
Woodlake 54/29/59/31/61 Hanford 54/28/60/31/60 Orosi 54/28/59/31/60

 

Seven Day Forecast

Saturday

Partly cloudy

33/61

Sunday

Partly cloudy

33/64

Monday

Mostly clear

37/65

Tuesday

Increasing clouds

39/65

Wednesday

Chance of showers

39/65

 

Two Week Outlook:  February 22 through February 28: This time frame is dominated by a chilly northwesterly flow with possible activity moving out of the Gulf of Alaska towards California. As you might expect, temperatures will range below average.

 

January:  This model continues the trend of the season with a favorable pattern for rain for California. The best chance of rain in January will be over the northern half of the state. Temperatures will run marginally below average.

 

January, February, March:  This model nudges the storm track further north with near average rainfall for northern California but somewhat below average for central and southern California. Temperatures will run marginally above average.

 

Wind Discussion: Winds will be variable to no more than 10 mph with periods of near calm conditions through Saturday.

 

Rain Discussion: We are going to introduce a chance of rain for this coming Wednesday, even though models are at war with one another. This is the second day in a row the GFS model has shown the possibility of rain for our region while other models show precipitation remaining to our north.

 

Frost Discussion.  Last night was the coldest since December and tonight is shaping up to be equally as cold. Even though dew points will begin to slowly recover today, conditions will be much more stable with light calm winds and generally clear skies. Coldest river bottom and similar locations will drop to 25 to 27. Most flatland regions will chill to 27 to 29. Many hillsides may be above freezing tonight as a better inversion begins to take shape. Temperatures at 34 feet will be 4 to 7 degrees warmer at most locations.

 

Temperatures will begin to recover Friday morning as coldest locations dip to 28 to 30 with most other locations in the lower 30s. on Sunday and Monday, widespread low to mid 30s can be expected with generally above freezing conditions from freezing on due to a combination of increasing clouds and a westerly flow result in a mild environment.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

28

Porterville

27

Ivanhoe

27

Woodlake

28

Strathmore

28

McFarland

28

Ducor

29

Tea Pot dome

28

Lindsay

27

Exeter

26

Famoso

28

Madera

29

Belridge

28

Delano

29

North bakersfield

29

Orosi

28

Orange Cove

28

Lindcove

27

Lindcove Hillside

33

Sanger River Bottom

25

Root Creek

27

Venice Hill

28

Rosedale

29

Jasmin

28

Arvin

29

Lamont

30

Plainview

28

Mettler

28

Edison

30

Maricopa

29

Holland Creek

30

Tivy Valley

27

Kite Road South

30

Kite Road North

27

AF=Above Freezing

 

Actual humidity values for Porterville 97%/39%, Delano  88%26%.  Mid afternoon dew points: Upper Low to mid 40s..  Kern: Low to mid 40s..

ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .66, Parlier, .64, Arvin .62, Porterville .56, Delano .61  Soil temperatures: Stratford 51, Parlier 51, Arvin 52, Porterville 48, Delano 51 *=data missing.

Average Temperatures: 61/40  Record Temperatures: 79/23

Heating Degree Days This Season.  1780 -29 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno  9.83, Monthly  .63

Precipitation for Bakersfield:  Season: 4.50, 136%  of,   Monthly:  .18

Average Temperature This Month  49.1 -0.1 Taken NWS Hanford.

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28:!  Parlier 1118,  Arvin 963 Belridge 1039, Shafter 1072, Stratford 1098,  Delano 1107,  Porterville  1078  courtesy UC Davis

Sunrise 5:46, sunset, 5:40.  hours of daylight, 10:49

 

Yesterday’s Weather:                   H        L         R

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1600 /  56 /  41 / 0.00 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DHM    /   M /  43 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  56 /  44 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 /  50 /  46 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1600 /  58 /  41 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1600 /  55 /  48 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1600 /  56 /  44 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DHM    /   M /   M /    M /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1600 /  54 /  42 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1552 /  54 /   M / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  55 /  40 /    M /

 

SEAS.     %     LY      %        AVE      YEAR

STOCKTON                         T   15.75   187    8.21    98     8.42    13.45

MODESTO                          T   13.54   180    8.15   109     7.51    12.27

MERCED                        0.00   13.46   193    5.85    84     6.99    11.80

MADERA                        0.00    5.14    83    1.52    24     6.21    10.79

FRESNO                        0.00    9.83   156    5.21    83     6.31    10.99

HANFORD                       0.00    6.99   149    4.61    99     4.68     8.13

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    4.50   123    3.56    98     3.65     6.36

BISHOP                        0.00    8.73   302    4.50   156     2.89     4.84

DEATH VALLEY NP               0.00    0.39    35       M     M     1.10     2.20

SALINAS                       0.00    9.26   119    6.11    78     7.81    12.58

PASO ROBLES                   0.00   13.07   178    7.34   100     7.35    12.15

SANTA MARIA                   0.00   13.61   174    6.26    80     7.84    13.32

 

Nest report: February 15 afternoon

At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.