February 16, 2023
This morning was equally as cold as yesterday morning. Cutler, Ivanhoe, Lindcove, and Ducor all fell to 26 degrees as of 6:00am with most other locations between 27 and 29. The air mass above the valley floor is beginning to warm, however. The freezing level has jumped up to 6,600 feet compared to just 3,300 feet yesterday at this time. Readings this afternoon will begin to sneak into the lower 60s which is close to seasonal average. By the time Sunday rolls around, most locations will top out in the mid to upper 60s. this will begin to drag up overnight low temperatures, as well, ending the freeze event. Currently, upper level high pressure stretches from southern California to the Canadian Rockies. A trough of low pressure off the coast of the Pacific Northwest will morph into a closed low situation off the northern California coast. This will keep any active weather off shore so there will be no chance of rain through at least Tuesday night. Models do show a rather vigorous low pressure system moving out of the Gulf of Alaska, carving out a big trough over much of the US beginning Wednesday of next week and lasting at least into the following weekend. If this shapes up as it appears, it would finally bring rain back to the valley and heavy snow up and down the Sierra Nevada.
Forecast: Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy through Saturday. Mostly clear skies Saturday night through Tuesday. Increasing cloudiness Tuesday night. Showers becoming likely Wednesday and at times through Thursday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 61/31/63/33/65 | Reedley 62/32/63/33/65 | Dinuba 61/30/62/33/65 |
| Porterville 62/30/63/31/64 | Lindsay 61/29/63/31/65 | Delano 62/30/63/33/64 |
| Bakersfield 62/39/63/38/64 | Taft 59/40/62/41/63 | Arvin 60/33/61/34/64 |
| Lamont 61/32/63/34/65 | Pixley 60/33/61/34/64 | Tulare 61/39/61/34/64 |
| Woodlake 61/31/63/33/65 | Hanford 62/32/62/34/65 | Orosi 61/30/63/33/65 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Sunday
Mostly clear 35/65 |
Monday
Mostly clear 37/65 |
Tuesday
Increasing clouds 40/67 |
Wednesday
Showers likely 39/65 |
Thursday
Showers likely 38/66 |
Two Week Outlook: February 23 through March 1: This time frame is dominated by a chilly northwesterly flow with possible activity moving out of the Gulf of Alaska towards California. As you might expect, temperatures will range below average.
January: This model continues the trend of the season with a favorable pattern for rain for California. The best chance of rain in January will be over the northern half of the state. Temperatures will run marginally below average.
January, February, March: This model nudges the storm track further north with near average rainfall for northern California but somewhat below average for central and southern California. Temperatures will run marginally above average.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be variable to no more than 10 mph with periods of near calm conditions through Sunday.
Rain Discussion: Dry weather will continue through at least Tuesday night. Models are coming into better agreement on placing a large low over the western US and off shore. This will bring plenty of energy in from the Gulf of Alaska with a good chance of shower activity over all of central California. This active pattern may last all the way into the following weekend for our first good chance of receiving significant precipitation since December.
Frost Discussion. For the second night in a row, very cold temperatures were recorded overnight. As of 6:00am, Cutler, Ivanhoe, Lindcove and Ducor all bottomed out at 26 with most other locations between 27 and 30 degrees. Upper level high pressure is building right above centra California and will warm daytime highs back into seasonal averages this afternoon. This will begin to drag up overnight lows. Even so, the air mass on the valley floor is dry, allowing for the continuation of strong radiational cooling. Coldest locations tonight will dip down to 28 to 29 degrees with most other locations between 30 and 33 degrees. The inversion tonight will be strong with temperatures at 34 feet ranging from 4 to 8 degrees warmer at most locations. Most locations Friday morning jwill be a degree or two warmer with the slow modification process continuing through the weekend. An active pattern will begin by the middle of next week which will keep temperatures above freezing.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
30 |
Porterville
30 |
Ivanhoe
29 |
Woodlake
31 |
| Strathmore
31 |
McFarland
30 |
Ducor
30 |
Tea Pot Dome
31 |
| Lindsay
29 |
Exeter
29 |
Famoso
31 |
Madera
31 |
| Belridge
29 |
Delano
31 |
North bakersfield
31 |
Orosi
30 |
| Orange Cove
31 |
Lindcove
29 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
27 |
| Root Creek
28 |
Venice Hill
29 |
Rosedale
30 |
Jasmin
31 |
| Arvin
32 |
Lamont
32 |
Plainview
30 |
Mettler
31 |
| Edison
33 |
Maricopa
32 |
Holland Creek
32 |
Tivy Valley
29 |
| Kite Road South
32 |
Kite Road North
29 |
AF=Above Freezing
Actual humidity values for Porterville 95%/38%, Delano 92%28%. Mid afternoon dew points: Upper Low to mid 40s.. Kern: Low to mid 40s..
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .67, Parlier, .65, Arvin .63, Porterville .57, Delano .62 Soil temperatures: Stratford 51, Parlier 51, Arvin 52, Porterville 48, Delano 51 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 62/40 Record Temperatures: 80/27
Heating Degree Days This Season. 1780 -29 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 9.83, Monthly .63
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 4.50, 136% of, Monthly: .18
Average Temperature This Month 49.1 -0.1 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28:! Parlier 1128, Arvin 966 Belridge 1043, Shafter 1075, Stratford 1107, Delano 1112, Porterville 1084 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 5:45, sunset, 5:41. hours of daylight, 10:55
Yesterday’s Weather: H L R
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 56 / 31 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 54 / 32 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 55 / 35 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 56 / 30 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 56 / 28 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 54 / 33 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 54 / 30 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 53 / 31 / 0.00 /
SEAS. % LY % AVE YEAR
STOCKTON 0.00 15.75 185 8.21 96 8.51 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 13.56 179 8.15 107 7.59 12.27
MERCED 0.00 13.47 191 5.85 83 7.07 11.80
MADERA 0.00 5.14 82 1.52 24 6.28 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 9.83 154 5.21 82 6.38 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 6.99 148 4.61 97 4.73 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 4.50 122 3.56 96 3.69 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 8.73 299 4.50 154 2.92 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.39 35 M M 1.12 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 9.27 117 6.11 77 7.90 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 13.07 176 7.34 99 7.44 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 13.61 171 6.26 79 7.94 13.32
Nest report: February 16 afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.