February 17, 2023
Currently, a closed low is centered roughly 500 miles west of the Golden Gate. The only impact on California’s weather is a veil of high clouds which helped moderate overnight temperatures. Even so, some of the coldest frost pockets dipped briefly into the upper 20s with most locations in the lower 30s. High pressure aloft will remain over California into early next week as the off shore low drifts slowly southward, parallel to the coast. From there, it will weaken and move into northern Baja Tuesday and Wednesday. It still appears that rain is on the way and will arrive at mid week. a very cold low pressure system will drive southward from the Gulf of Alaska right along the Pacific coast. By the time Thursday and Friday roll around, the storm will cover most of the western US, including California. Estimates for initial snow have snow along the Sierra Nevada down to 1,000 to 2,000 feet. By Thursday of next week, the low center will be just west of Washington and Oregon with the jets stream running underneath the low, running west to east over central California.. the parent low itself will move southward to a position just to our west next Thursday and Friday with very low snow levels in the nearby mountains. Most models for next weekend show further very cold storms moving out of the Gulf towards California. So, it looks like we could have a prolonged period of cold and on off wet weather for the better part of a week and, if you believe the two week model clear into the first week of March.
Forecast: Partly cloudy through Saturday. Mostly clear Saturday night through Monday night. Partly cloudy Tuesday. Increasing cloudiness Tuesday night. Showers likely at times Wednesday through Friday with snow in the foothills.
Temperatures:
| Madera 62/31/64/33/67 | Reedley 63/30/64/32/66 | Dinuba 62/30/63/33/66 |
| Porterville 63/30/64/34/67 | Lindsay 63/29/64/32/67 | Delano 63/31/64/35/66 |
| Bakersfield 62/35/64/37/67 | Taft 61/38/62/39/64 | Arvin 64/33/65/35/67 |
| Lamont 64/33/65/35/67 | Pixley 62/30/63/34/65 | Tulare 61/29/63/35/65 |
| Woodlake 62/31/64/33/67 | Hanford 62/30/64/34/66 | Orosi 62/30/64/33/67 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Monday
Mostly clear 35/65 |
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 40/68 |
Wednesday
Showers likely 37/66 |
Thursday
Showers likely 33/54 |
Friday
Chance of showers 36/54 |
Two Week Outlook: February 24 through March 2: This time frame is dominated by a chilly northwesterly flow with possible activity moving out of the Gulf of Alaska towards California. As you might expect, temperatures will range below average.
January: This model continues the trend of the season with a favorable pattern for rain for California. The best chance of rain in January will be over the northern half of the state. Temperatures will run marginally below average.
January, February, March: This model nudges the storm track further north with near average rainfall for northern California but somewhat below average for central and southern California. Temperatures will run marginally above average.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be variable to no more than 10 mph with periods of near calm conditions through Monday.
Rain Discussion: Models are still adamant that a very cold and wet pattern will set up the middle of next week. a trough of low pressure will move right down the west coast from the Gulf of Alaska with part of the low remaining off shore and the rest overland. This system will pick up very cold Canadian air, moving it southward into California for very low snow levels, perhaps as low a 1,000 to 2,000 feet. Models that not only cover the second half of next week but all the way into the first week of March show very low snow levels.
Frost Discussion. Most locations were in the lower 30s as of 6:00 am. Fowler and Sanger were the coldest this morning at 28 degrees. The challenge for tonight will be the potential for high clouds above the valley. There isa low center roughly 500 miles west of the Golden Gate.. the counterclockwise circulation around the low is rotating mainly high cirro clouds around the low. This made the difference of 1 to 2 degrees last night and could very well do the same tonight. Satellite imagery shows gaps in the cloud deck meaning there could be periods of clear skies tonight. For this forecast, we’ll continue with upper 20s in those traditional cold spots with readings mainly in the lowers in the flat terrain areas with above freezing conditions on hillsides. The inversion tonight will be relatively strong with temperatures at 34 feet generally from 4 to 8 degrees warmer at most locations.
Temperatures Sunday morning will be 1 to 2 degrees warmer due to modification of the air mass. Colder locations will still be below freezing due to low dew points, around 29 to 30..
Beginning Wednesday, and possibly Tuesday, a very cold and wet pattern will begin, ,maintaining temperatures at least slightly above freezing. Any night with several nights of clear skies will see below freezing temperatures.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
30 |
Porterville
30 |
Ivanhoe
29 |
Woodlake
30 |
| Strathmore
31 |
McFarland
29 |
Ducor
30 |
Tea Pot Dome
30 |
| Lindsay
29 |
Exeter
29 |
Famoso
31 |
Madera
30 |
| Belridge
29 |
Delano
31 |
North Bakersfield
31 |
Orosi
30 |
| Orange Cove
30 |
Lindcove
28 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
28 |
| Root Creek
29 |
Venice Hill
30 |
Rosedale
31 |
Jasmin
32 |
| Arvin
32 |
Lamont
33 |
Plainview
30 |
Mettler |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
32 |
Holland Creek
32 |
Tivy Valley
29 |
| Kite Road South
32 |
Kite Road North
29 |
AF=Above Freezing
Actual humidity values for Porterville 98%/32%, Delano 87%25%. Mid afternoon dew points: Upper Low to mid 40s.. Kern: Low to mid 40s..
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .69, Parlier, .66, Arvin 64, Porterville .57, Delano .62 Soil temperatures: Stratford 51, Parlier 50, Arvin 52, Porterville 47, Delano 50 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 62/41 Record Temperatures: 84/29
Heating Degree Days This Season. 1822 -15 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 9.83, Monthly .63
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 4.50, 136% of, Monthly: .18
Average Temperature This Month 48.4 -1.2 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28:! Parlier 1128, Arvin 966 Belridge 1043, Shafter 1075, Stratford 1107, Delano 1112, Porterville 1084 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 5:44, sunset, 5:42. hours of daylight, 10:57
Yesterday’s Weather: H L R
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 57 / 30 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DHM / M / M / M /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 60 / 33 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 60 / 29 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 62 / 24 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DHM / 63 / 33 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 61 / 28 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / M / M /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 62 / 28 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1548 / 59 / 31 / 0.00 /
SEAS. % LY % AVE YEAR
STOCKTON 0.00 15.75 183 8.21 95 8.61 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 13.56 177 8.15 106 7.68 12.27
MERCED 0.00 13.47 188 5.85 82 7.16 11.80
MADERA 0.00 5.14 81 1.52 24 6.35 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 9.83 152 5.21 81 6.45 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 6.99 146 4.61 96 4.79 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 4.50 121 3.56 95 3.73 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 8.73 296 4.50 153 2.95 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.39 34 M M 1.14 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 9.27 116 6.11 76 7.99 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 13.07 174 7.34 97 7.53 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 13.61 169 6.26 78 8.05 13.32
Nest report: February 17 afternoon