February 18, 2023
A closed low is located roughly 600 miles west of the southern California coast this morning. The veil of high clouds which was over us the past two days has largely drifted southward out of the area with the low. With mostly clear skies last night, yet another frost/freeze event occurred. Lindsay, Lindcove, and Sanger hit 26 degrees and Ivanhoe 27 as of 6:00am. Yet another below freezing night is ahead tonight. More in the frost discussion below. The low off the south coast will weaken and slowly move into northern Baja over the weekend. In the meantime, we’re keeping a watchful eye to the north as high pressure in the gulf of Alaska will begin to migrate back towards the west, allowing an extremely cold low pressure system to develop over British Columbia and just off shore. This will dig a trough into California by Tuesday night with the chance of light showers Tuesday night through Friday. The trough will actually be oriented from northeast to southwest from west central Canada to off the central coast, resulting in a northeast flow. Very cold air will descend into central California with high temperatures struggling to reach 50 by Thursday with overnight lows having the potential to fall below freezing. Snow will fall into the lower foothills. The storm track will migrate a bit further north by next weekend, however models are showing another low off the coast of the Pacific Northwest dropping into California about a week from Monday.
Forecast: Mostly clear through Monday night. Increasing cloudiness Tuesday. A chance of light showers Tuesday night and at times through Friday. Partly cloudy Friday night and Saturday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 64/30/65/35/68 | Reedley 64/29/66/33/70 | Dinuba 63/29/64/33/68 |
| Porterville 64/29/66/33/69 | Lindsay 64/28/66/32/69 | Delano 65/30/66/33/69 |
| Bakersfield 64/38/65/42/69 | Taft 63/41/65/43/68 | Arvin 64/33/66/35/70 |
| Lamont 65/32/66/34/70 | Pixley 63/29/65/33/68 | Tulare 62/28/64/33/69 |
| Woodlake 63/29/65/32/68 | Hanford 64/30/66/34/69 | Orosi 63/28/66/33/68 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Tuesday
Chance of pm showers 37/68 |
Wednesday
Chance of showers 35/68 |
Thursday
Chance of showers 31/52 |
Friday
Chance of showers 31/51 |
Saturday
Partly cloudy 38/51 |
Two Week Outlook: February 25 through March 3: This time frame is dominated by a chilly northwesterly flow with possible activity moving out of the Gulf of Alaska towards California. As you might expect, temperatures will range below average.
January: This model continues the trend of the season with a favorable pattern for rain for California. The best chance of rain in January will be over the northern half of the state. Temperatures will run marginally below average.
January, February, March: This model nudges the storm track further north with near average rainfall for northern California but somewhat below average for central and southern California. Temperatures will run marginally above average.
Wind Discussion: Winds through Monday will be generally at or less than 10 mph during the late mornings and afternoons. During the night and morning hours, winds will be at or less than 5 mph with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Tuesday will be out of the southeast at 5 to 15 mph with stronger gusts from Fresno County north. Winds later Tuesday through Wednesday will be out of the north to northwest at 10 to 20 mph with stronger gusts in the vicinity of showers.
Rain Discussion: It now appears the chance of light showers will begin to increase Tuesday, but more so Tuesday night and Wednesday as a very cold trough of low pressure settles over the area. This will not be a big precipitation event, but just light showers for the valley. The Sierra Nevada may do fairly well with snow down into the lower foothills. The chance of light showers will continue through Friday then the storm track will move north during the weekend for two dry days. Models are beginning to show another low dropping southward just off the coast of the Pacific Northwest Monday, spreading more rain into northern and central California. On paper, this one is not quite as cold, but will have the potential of carrying a bit more water.
Frost Discussion. Dew points remain very low by valley standards. During the warmth of the afternoon, dew points have been in the mid 20s to the lower 30s. so even though daytime highs have migrated back into the lower 60s, strong radiational cooling takes place each night. Last night, the veil of high clouds also vanished, contributing to the cooling process. Most other locations were between 29 and 33. Information this morning shows temperatures moderating by 2 to 3 degrees tonight. However, if dew points are back in the mid 20s again by the afternoon report, expect lows to be similar. There are no sources of wind energy or cloud cover to slow the process down, so for these reasons, for this forecast, we’ll place lows similar to last night’s. the inversion tonight will be strong with temperatures at 34 feet generally 4 to 8 degrees warmer. The same applies to Monday morning. Tuesday and Wednesday should be above freezing due to unsettled conditions, however a very cold low pressure system will settle in overhead at mid week any night beginning Thursday morning could dip into the upper 20s, provided conditions allow for it. Keep in mind, this is an unsettled weather pattern, so it’s reasonable that temperatures will range in the upper 20s to the mid 30s.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
29 |
Porterville
29 |
Ivanhoe
28 |
Woodlake
30 |
| Strathmore
29 |
McFarland
28 |
Ducor
30 |
Tea Pot Dome
29 |
| Lindsay
27 |
Exeter
27 |
Famoso
29 |
Madera
28 |
| Belridge
28 |
Delano
29 |
North Bakersfield
29 |
Orosi
28 |
| Orange Cove
29 |
Lindcove
28 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
26 |
| Root Creek
27 |
Venice Hill
28 |
Rosedale
30 |
Jasmin
29 |
| Arvin
32 |
Lamont
31 |
Plainview
29 |
Mettler
29 |
| Edison
31 |
Maricopa
32 |
Holland Creek
32 |
Tivy Valley
29 |
| Kite Road South
32 |
Kite Road North
29 |
AF=Above Freezing
Actual humidity values for Porterville 98%/30%, Delano 68%24%. Mid afternoon dew points: Upper Low to mid 40s.. Kern: Low to mid 40s..
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .68, Parlier, .67, Arvin 66, Porterville .58, Delano .64 Soil temperatures: Stratford 51, Parlier 49, Arvin 52, Porterville 46, Delano 50 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 62/41 Record Temperatures: 84/27
Heating Degree Days This Season. 1839 -12 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 9.83, Monthly .63
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 4.50, Monthly: .18
Average Temperature This Month 48.4 -1.4 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Parlier 1158, Arvin 993 Belridge 1073, Shafter 1104, Stratford 1137, Delano 1142, Porterville 1114 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 5:43, sunset, 5:43. hours of daylight, 10:59
Yesterday’s Weather: H L R
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 62 / 31 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 61 / 28 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 61 / 36 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 64 / 31 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 62 / 30 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 61 / 39 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 61 / 31 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 62 / 32 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1549 / 60 / 42 / 0.00 /
SEAS. % LY % AVE YEAR
STOCKTON 0.00 15.75 181 8.21 94 8.70 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 13.56 175 8.15 105 7.76 12.27
MERCED 0.00 13.47 186 5.85 81 7.24 11.80
MADERA 0.00 5.14 80 1.52 24 6.43 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 9.83 151 5.21 80 6.53 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 6.99 144 4.61 95 4.84 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 4.50 119 3.56 94 3.78 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 8.73 292 4.50 151 2.99 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.39 34 M M 1.16 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 9.27 115 6.11 76 8.07 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 13.07 172 7.34 96 7.62 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 13.61 167 6.26 77 8.15 13.32
Nest report: February 18 afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.