February 19, 2023
Currently, upper level high pressure resides in the Gulf of Alaska. Over the next 24 hours, the high will begin to buckle. This will allow a very cold low to develop in the northeast Gulf of Alaska. Models show this low sliding southward into the Pacific Northwest Sunday, northern California Tuesday, and central California Tuesday night. Snow showers will spread down the Sierra Nevada Tuesday afternoon, reaching into the Kern County mountains Tuesday night. The chance for light showers will begin to increase Tuesday night. The trough will then become oriented northeast to southeast from the Canadian Rockies to just off the central coast, placing a very cold unstable air mass above California, resulting in a chance of light showers from time to time from Wednesday through Friday evening. Snow levels wil drop to 1,000 to 2,000 feet with several inches of snow in the lower foothills. This pattern will temporarily dry up over the weekend as a ridge of high pressure builds in from the west. By Monday however, a new and very old low will develop in the Gulf of Alaska, moving into California with a renewed threat of precipitation. Models for later next week are also indication additional chances of precipitation as the storm door remains open from e Gulf of Alaska.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through tonight. Partly cloudy Monday and Monday night. Increasing cloudiness Tuesday. A chance of light showers Tuesday night through Friday evening. Partly cloudy Saturday and Sunday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 65/33/68/37/67 | Reedley 66/33/69/38/68 | Dinuba 64/32/62/38/67 |
| Porterville 6d/69]37/70 | Lindsay 65/31/68/38/68 | Delano 67/33/69/39/69 |
| Bakersfield 65/40/68/42/69 | Taft 65/43/67/45/70 | Arvin 66/37/70/38/68 |
| Lamont 66/35/69/39/69 | Pixley 65/38/67/38/67 | Tulare 64/32/6737/67 |
| Woodlake 64/32/67/37/67 | Hanford 67/34/70/38/68 | Orosi 64/33/67/37/67 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Wednesday
Chance of showers22 33/67 |
Thursday
Chance of showers 32/51 |
Friday
Chance of showers 31/51 |
Saturday
Party cloudy 29/54 |
Sunday
Partly cloudy 32/54 |
Two Week Outlook: February 25 through March 3: This time frame is dominated by a chilly northwesterly flow with possible activity moving out of the Gulf of Alaska towards California. As you might expect, temperatures will range below average.
January: This model continues the trend of the season with a favorable pattern for rain for California. The best chance of rain in January will be over the northern half of the state. Temperatures will run marginally below average.
January, February, March: This model nudges the storm track further north with near average rainfall for northern California but somewhat below average for central and southern California. Temperatures will run marginally above average.
Wind Discussion: Winds through Tuesday morning will be generally at or less than 10 mph with periods of near calm conditions winds Tuesday afternoon or evening will become out of the northwest at 110 to 20 mmph with stronger gusts winds. Winds Tuesday night and Wednesday will be mainly out of the southeast at 8 to 15 mph with stronger guts near showers
Rain Discussion: dry weather will continue through Tuesday. The chance of light showers will increase from mainly Fresno County north by Tuesday evening, spreading over the remainder of the valley Tuesday night. A pool of cold unstable air will remain over central California through Friday. Dry weather will temporarily return this weekend then a second system from the Gulf of Alaska will renew the opportunity for precipitation Monday and Tuesday. Models keep the storm door open for additional chances or precipitation later next wee.
Frost Discussion. Temperatures moderated by am average of 30 degrees overnight. The coldest locations this mooring were Porterville Lindsay, and Exeter each at 29. Most other locations were in the low to mid 30s. minor modification will take place tonight with coldest areas down to 30 to 31. Increasing clous cover will keep temperatures above freezing Tuesday morning, From Wednesday trug Friday we will be under a very cold air ass. Any night with mostly clear sies could fall to the’
upper 20s to the lower 30s. river bottom type locations could dip briefly into the mid 20. Nights where cloud dover is more predominant, readings will only fall into the low to mid 30sl
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
Af |
Porterville
31 |
Ivanhoe
31 |
Woodlake
Af |
| Strathmore
32 |
McFarland
Af |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
32 |
| Lindsay
31 |
Exeter
31 |
Famoso
Af |
Madera
Af |
| Belridge
31 |
Delano
Af |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
32 |
| Orange Cove
32 |
Lindcove
da |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
29 |
| Root Creek
30 |
Venice Hill
32 |
Rosedale
Qr` |
Jasmin
qr |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
32 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
Af |
Tivy Valley
32 |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
32 |
AF=Above Freezing
Actual humidity values for Porterville 97%/32%, Delano 83%28%. Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 30s.. Kern: Low to mid 30s..
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .70, Parlier, .69, Arvin 72, Porterville .65, Delano .67 Soil temperatures: Stratford 50, Parlier 49, Arvin 51, Porterville 46, Delano 49 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 62/41 Record Temperatures: 79/28
Heating Degree Days This Season. 1856 -6 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 9.83, Monthly .63
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 4.50, Monthly: .18
Average Temperature This Month 48.3 -1.6 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Parlier 1172, Arvin 998, Belridge 1087, Shafter 1117, Stratford 1153, Delano 1154, Porterville 1128 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 5:41, sunset, 5:44. hours of daylight, 11:01
Yesterday’s Weather: H L R
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 64 / 29 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 64 / 29 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 63 / 34 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 65 / 30 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 65 / 27 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 65 / 35 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 62 / 30 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 65 / 28 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1559 / 61 / 41 / 0.00 /
SEAS. % LY % AVE YEAR
STOCKTON 0.00 15.75 179 8.21 93 8.80 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 13.56 173 8.15 104 7.84 12.27
MERCED 0.00 13.47 184 5.85 80 7.32 11.80
MADERA 0.00 5.14 79 1.52 23 6.50 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 9.83 149 5.21 79 6.60 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 6.99 143 4.61 94 4.90 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 4.50 118 3.56 93 3.82 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 8.73 289 4.50 149 3.02 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.39 33 M M 1.18 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 9.27 114 6.11 75 8.16 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 13.07 170 7.34 95 7.71 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 13.61 165 6.26 76 8.26 13.32
13.32
Nest report: February 20 morning
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.