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Forecast

February 24, 2023 report

 

February 24, 2023

Rain has spread over almost all of central California at this hour. The only exception is the extreme south valley where a rain shadow has developed. The center of circulation of a very intense low is located roughly 200 miles to the west/northwest of San Francisco. The circulation around the low is moving significant amounts of precipitation from southwest to northeast across the valley and will continue to do so for the next 12 to 14 hours or so. A steep difference in pressure now exists between off shore San Francisco and Nevada. The current altimeter reading at San Francisco is 29.95 inches of mercury while Las Vegas has a reading of 30.06. As a result, ,winds are gusting to between 45 and 50 mph at Merced, Modesto, Stockton and Sacramento. We may very well have high wind problems in the south valley,, too, as the low tracks slowly southward along the central coast. By midday Saturday, the center of circulation wil be just west of Santa Maria, meaning abundant amounts of moisture will continue to stream inland over central California for much of Saturday. The latest models do seem to want to speed the system up as it tracks through southern California Sunday, finally bringing the rain to a halt in central California with the possible exception of Kern County which will be closer to the exiting low. With some luck, Sunday through Monday morning will be dry, however the next cold trough of low pressure will develop in the Gulf of Alaska and will begin spreading precipitation over central California Monday through Wednesday. This one I wouldn’t compare to the current system, however, another .25 to 50 is possible between Monday afternoon and Wednesday evening. Upper level high pressure will finally begin to build in from the west next Thursday for a period of dry weather. However, some medium range models indicate rain will move back to California around March 6

 

Forecast: Rain through Saturday morning, possibly heavy at times. Showers Saturday afternoon. Tapering off Saturday night. Partly cloudy Sunday and Sunday night but a chance of showers Sunday morning in Kern County. Showers returning Monday afternoon, continuing at times through Wednesday. Partly cloudy Wednesday night and Thursday. Mostly clear Thursday night and Friday.

 

Temperatures: Highs today will warm into the mid 50s. Lows tonight will cool into the  upper 30s to the mid 40s. Highs Saturday will warm into the mid to upper 40s. Lows Saturday night will chill into the low to mid 30s. highs Monday will warm into the mid 50s.

 

Seven Day Forecast

Monday

PM showers

36/53

Tuesday

Showers likely

40/56

Wednesday

Showers likely

37/54

Thursday

Partly cloudy

31/52

Friday

Mostly clear

31/55

 

Two Week Outlook:  March 3 through March 9: Although this model is not as pronounced for rain, it still favors systems moving out of the Gulf of Alaska and into California for above average rainfall. Temperatures will continue to be below average.

 

January:  This model continues the trend of the season with a favorable pattern for rain for California. The best chance of rain in January will be over the northern half of the state. Temperatures will run marginally below average.

 

January, February, March:  This model nudges the storm track further north with near average rainfall for northern California but somewhat below average for central and southern California. Temperatures will run marginally above average.

 

Wind Discussion: Winds are already buffeting the northern San Joaquin and southern Sacramento Valleys. Wind gusts at Merced, Stockton, Modesto, and Sacramento were all between 40 and 45 mph with lighter winds further south. It’ll be a tricky call later today through the evening hours for the south valley as an east/southeast pressure gradient moves downslope off the Tehachapi and possibly down to the valley floor. places like the bottom of the Grapevine, Wheeler Ridge, Taft and others could experience gusts to 60 mph. these winds will die off quickly tonight as the low moves further south. The remainder of the valley will see winds out of the east/southeast at 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35 to 45 mph possible later today and tonight. Winds Saturday will be much lighter in all areas and generally average in the 8 to 15 mph range. Winds Saturday night and Sunday will be generally less than 15 mph but stronger in the vicinity of showers.

 

Rain Discussion: Doppler radar has indicated rain has spread over much of central California though a rain shadow is starting to show up over portions of the west and south valley. High resolution model information is still very impressive in estimates for rainfall on the valley floor. the NBM blended model indicates 1.97 at Porterville and 1.62 at Bakersfield. This may be a bit over done as there is also a great deal of wind in the forecast which is conducive for rain shadows. At any rate, this is a very wet system. In fact, some of these same models are indicating rain at the rate of an inch per hour along southern California mountain slopes in Ventura and LA Counties. Rain will continue through much of Saturday. Tapering off Saturday night. Currently, Sunday appears dry, although I wouldn’t rule out lingering showers into Sunday morning in Kern County. Dry weather will briefly be with us Sunday night into Monday morning before the next cold system rolls out of the Gulf of Alaska and into central California Monday afternoon. Expect showers at times Monday afternoon through Wednesday. Some dry days will finally set up beginning Thursday.

 

Frost Discussion.  All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight. On Sunday morning, widespread low to mid 30s are anticipated as clouds decrease and cold air moves in behind the exiting low. Readings Monday will be mostly in the 30s as clouds again increase ahead of the next storm to move out of the Gulf of Alaska. Active weather will keep temperatures above freezing Tuesday and Wednesday. We do have the potential for below freezing temperatures Thursday and Friday behind that last storm to move through. Upper 20s and lower 30s are possible each of those mornings.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

Af

Porterville

Af

Ivanhoe

Af

Woodlake

Af

Strathmore

Af

McFarland

Af

Ducor

Af

Tea Pot Dome

Af

Lindsay

Af

Exeter

Af

Famoso

Af

Madera

Af

Belridge

Af

Delano

Af

North Bakersfield

Af

Orosi

Af

Orange Cove

Af

Lindcove

Af

Lindcove Hillside

Af

Sanger River Bottom

Af

Root creek

Af

Venice Hill

Af

Rosedale

Af

Jasmine

Af

Arvin

Af

Lamont

Af

Plainview

Af

Mettler

Af

Edison

Af

Maricopa

Af

Holland Creek

Af

Tivy Valley

Af

Kite Road South

Af

Kite Road North

Af

AF=Above Freezing

 

Actual humidity values for Porterville 90%/51%, Delano  92%49%.  Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 40s..  Kern: Low to mid 40s..

ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .66, Parlier, .67, Arvin 75, Porterville .64, Delano .69  Soil temperatures: Stratford 50, Parlier 50, Arvin 51, Porterville 47, Delano 50 *=data missing.

Average Temperatures: 64/42  Record Temperatures: 79/30

Heating Degree Days This Season.  1919 +4 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno  10.01, Monthly  .81

Precipitation for Bakersfield:  Season: 4.57, Monthly:  .35

Average Temperature This Month  48.4 -1.8 Taken NWS Hanford.

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28:  Parlier 1235,  Arvin 1056, Belridge 1142, Shafter 1175, Stratford 1213,  Delano 1213,  Porterville  1187  courtesy UC Davis

Sunrise 5:35, sunset, 5:49.  hours of daylight, 11:12

 

Yesterday’s Weather:                                         H        L         R

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1600 /  52 /  32 /    T /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1600 /  52 /   M /    M /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  52 /  35 / 0.18 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 /  54 /  33 / 0.01 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1600 /  55 /  28 / 0.14 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1600 /  53 /  37 / 0.05 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1600 /  52 /  34 / 0.02 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1600 /  53 /  34 /    T /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1553 /  52 /  39 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  51 /   M /    M /

 

Central CA. Rainfall:                                                                             

STOCKTON                      0.02   15.77   170    8.21    89     9.26    13.45

MODESTO                          T   13.56   164    8.16    99     8.25    12.27

MERCED                           T   13.47   174    5.87    76     7.76    11.80

MADERA                           M    5.14    74    1.56    23     6.90    10.79

FRESNO                        0.00   10.01   144    5.25    75     6.97    10.99

HANFORD                          T    7.00   135    4.78    92     5.18     8.13

BAKERSFIELD                      T    4.57   113    3.67    91     4.04     6.36

BISHOP                        0.00    8.73   274    4.50   141     3.19     4.84

DEATH VALLEY NP               0.00    0.39    30       M     M     1.28     2.20

SALINAS                       0.04    9.34   108    6.18    72     8.61    12.58

PASO ROBLES                   0.01   13.08   160    7.37    90     8.17    12.15

SANTA MARIA                   0.20   13.86   158    6.33    72     8.79    13.32

 

 

Next report: February 24 afternoon

 

At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.