February 25, 2023
I’ve been forecasting weather in the valley for roughly 25 years and this current storm is the most impressive I can remember. Rainfall amounts over most of the valley has been historic. Here are a few examples: Fresno 2.92, Hanford 3.15, Lemoore 4.15, Bakersfield 1.52, Buttonwillow 1.66, Belridge 4.85, Visalia 2.73, Tulare 2.83, and Porterville 1.81.
In addition, snowflakes reached the valley floor in a few locations. Arvin measured an inch of snow. We call it a train echo. That is when heavy rain tracks across the same real estate for long periods of time. The heavy rain began Friday morning and is just now moving into the Sierra Nevada which, no doubt, is recording amazing amounts of snow.
The main upper low is centered just west of Santa Maria this morning with a surface low over the central valley and a secondary surface low over the Kern County mountains. A swath of heavy precipitation is moving from south to north into the coastal and mountain sections of southern California and will move up the Sierra Nevada. The precipitation over the Coast Range and points west has broken off into just light showers.
The low will open up into a wave and move across southern California tonight and Sunday. The chance of showers will continue for the remainder of the day but the really heavy stuff is over. All of this will slowly wind down to some dry weather tonight and Sunday morning. Models are showing the next system speeding up out of the Gulf of Alaska and into northern California as early as Sunday afternoon with a big trough extending along the west coast Monday through Wednesday with several disturbances moving through the trough for periodic shower activity which will finally come to an end Wednesday night.
Dry weather will finally return Thursday and Friday. However, latest model information shows another trough moving into California next weekend for the renewal of active weather.
Forecast: Rain on the east side of the valley for a time this morning. Showers this afternoon. A chance of showers for a time tonight. Becoming partly cloudy after midnight. Partly cloudy Sunday morning. A chance of showers Sunday afternoon and night. Periods of rain Monday through Wednesday. Partly cloudy Wednesday night and Thursday. Mostly clear Friday. Increasing cloudiness Friday night. A chance of showers Saturday.
Temperatures: Highs today will warm only into the upper 40s. Lows tonight will chill into the low to mid 30s. Highs Sunday will warm into the low 50s. Lows Sunday night will cool into the upper 30s and lower 40s. Highs Monday will warm into the mid 50s.
Seven Day Forecast
| Tuesday
Showers likely 37/54 |
Wednesday
Showers likely 35/52 |
Thursday
Partly cloudy 31/51 |
Friday
Mostly clear 31/55 |
Saturday
Chance of showers 34/56 |
Two Week Outlook: March 3 through March 9: Although this model is not as pronounced for rain, it still favors systems moving out of the Gulf of Alaska and into California for above average rainfall. Temperatures will continue to be below average.
January: This model continues the trend of the season with a favorable pattern for rain for California. The best chance of rain in January will be over the northern half of the state. Temperatures will run marginally below average.
January, February, March: This model nudges the storm track further north with near average rainfall for northern California but somewhat below average for central and southern California. Temperatures will run marginally above average.
Wind Discussion: Winds today will be mainly out of the south to southeast at around 8 to 15 mph. Winds tonight and Sunday will be mainly out of the southeast at 5 to 12 mph. Winds Sunday night through Monday will be mainly out of the southeast at 8 to 15 mph with stronger gusts, mainly in the vicinity of showers.
Rain Discussion: The rain has come to an end over much of the valley. Doppler radar is showing a swath of heavy moisture moving from south to north along the Sierra Nevada. Rainfall from this point on will be in the form of showers as the daytime heating process gets underway. However, I’m not anticipating more than .25 at any given location for the rest of this event. Models have shown the arrival of the next system from the Gulf of Alaska will be earlier than expected. Mainly light showers will spread into the northern growing area Sunday afternoon. Several waves of energy will move through central California from Monday through Wednesday. Periods of showers can be expected throughout that time frame. Dry weather will finally return Thursday and Friday. Some models have changed their tune for the upcoming weekend and are now indicating a new trough will move out of the Gulf of Alaska and into California next weekend for our next chance at precipitation.
Frost Discussion. Lows tonight will largely depend on cloud cover. For this forecast, we’ll go with widespread low to mid 30s with upper 20s in the colder locations. The air mass settling into central California is very cold. However, the valley floor has been inundated with rain which, in itself, will act as somewhat of a modifier. Coldest locations tonight in river bottom type situations could drop down to 27 to 28 degrees with most flat land locations ranging from 29 to 33. Where cloud cover remains abundant, readings will remain from 33 to 36. All locations will be above freezing Monday through Wednesday mornings due to heavy cloud cover and active weather. Below freezing temperatures seem likely Thursday and Friday of next week as a cold air mass shifts in behind a system due to move in Wednesday evening. Upper 20s to lower 30s seem possible for most mornings. Lows for next weekend are speculative at this time due to the possibility of a new winter storm moving into the region.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
32 |
Porterville
31 |
Ivanhoe
Af |
Woodlake
32 |
| Strathmore
32 |
McFarland
33 |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
32 |
| Lindsay
31 |
Exeter
31 |
Famoso
Af |
Madera
32 |
| Belridge
31 |
Delano
Af |
North Bakersfield
33 |
Orosi
32 |
| Orange Cove
32 |
Lindcove
31 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
30 |
| Root Creek
31 |
Venice Hill
32 |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmine
33 |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
32 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
Af |
Tivy Valley
Af |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Actual humidity values for Porterville 100%/57%, Delano 97%55%. Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 40s.. Kern: Low to mid 40s..
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .57, Parlier, .58, Arvin 77, Porterville .56, Delano .60 Soil temperatures: Stratford 50, Parlier 49, Arvin 51, Porterville 47, Delano 50 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 64/42 Record Temperatures: 80/30
Heating Degree Days This Season. 1959 +20 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 12.17, Monthly 2.81
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 5.60, Monthly: 1.28
Average Temperature This Month 48.1 -2.4 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Parlier 1253, Arvin 1073, Belridge 1156, Shafter 1192, Stratford 1228, Delano 1229, Porterville 1202 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 5:34, sunset, 5:50. hours of daylight, 11:15
Yesterday’s Weather: H L R
MMCE : Merced AP 153 : 50 / 39 / 0.87 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 51 37 / M /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 49 / 39 / 2.73 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 49 / 40 / 3.10 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 49 / 37 / 2.31 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 62 / 36 / 1.34 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 49 / 39 / 2.61 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 57 / 38 / 1.51 /
IYK : Inyokern AP 2455 : 45 / 41 / M /
Central CA. Rainfall:
STOCKTON 0.32 16.09 172 8.21 88 9.34 13.45
MODESTO 0.52 14.08 169 8.16 98 8.33 12.27
MERCED 0.17 13.64 174 5.87 75 7.84 11.80
MADERA 0.35 5.49 79 1.56 22 6.97 10.79
FRESNO 1.04 11.05 157 5.25 75 7.04 10.99
HANFORD 1.28 8.29 159 4.78 91 5.23 8.13
BAKERSFIELD T 4.67 114 3.67 90 4.09 6.36
BISHOP 0.31 9.04 281 4.50 140 3.22 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.39 30 M M 1.30 2.20
SALINAS 0.50 9.84 113 6.18 71 8.70 12.58
PASO ROBLES 1.32 14.57 176 7.37 89 8.27 12.15
SANTA MARIA M 13.86 156 6.33 71 8.90 13.32
Next report: February 25 afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.