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Forecast

February 27, 2023 report

February 27, 2023

A very elongated trough of cold low pressure stretches from the eastern Gulf of Alaska southward to southern California. The air associated with this trough is very cold. The latest balloon sounding over Oakland indicated a freezing level of 1,500 feet, meaning snow is falling down to roughly 2,000 feet or so. Doppler radar indicates light shower activity over the valley, mainly north of Kern County which is associated with the latest wave of low pressure to move through the trough. At least two more disturbances will move through. The strongest will arrive late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Blended model information indicates as much as .50 is possible on the valley floor with this system and as much as three to four feet of new snow above 4,000 feet. The back  side of the trough will cear central California late Wednesday and Wednesday night. A very cold air mass will dive in behind the exiting trough, possibly resulting in widespread subfreezing temperatures Thursday and Friday mornings. These same models point to another active period of time during the second half of the weekend and well into next week.

 

Forecast: Periods of showers through Wednesday. Partly cloudy Wednesday night and Thursday. Mostly clear Thursday night through Friday night. Increasing cloudiness Saturday night. A chance of showers Sunday with showers becoming likely Sunday night and Monday.

 

Temperatures:

Madera 54/37/52/36/51 Reedley 55/37/51/37/52 Dinuba 54/36/51/35/51
Porterville 54/37/53/37/48 Lindsay 53/36/53/38/49 Delano 54/39/53/39/49
Bakersfield 54/38/54/39/47 Taft 54/37/53/40/48 Arvin 55/39/53/39/49
Lamont 54//40/53/40/48 Pixley 54/36/52/36/49 Tulare 53/35/52/36/49
Woodlake 54/36/52/36/49 Hanford 55/36/51/37/53 Orosi 54/37/51/37/52

 

Seven Day Forecast

Thursday

Partly cloudy

28/55

Friday

Mostly clear

30/56

Saturday

Mostly clear

32/58

Sunday

Chance of showers

39/56

Monday

Showers likely

39/57

 

Two Week Outlook:  March 6 through March 13  This model indicates this will be an active period of time once again with the risk of showers. Temperatures will remain below average.

 

January:  This model continues the trend of the season with a favorable pattern for rain for California. The best chance of rain in January will be over the northern half of the state. Temperatures will run marginally below average.

 

January, February, March:  This model nudges the storm track further north with near average rainfall for northern California but somewhat below average for central and southern California. Temperatures will run marginally above average.

 

Wind Discussion: Winds will be mainly out of the southeast at 8 to 15 mph through Wednesday with stronger gusts. Winds will decrease Wednesday night to 10 to 12 mph with light winds Thursday.

 

Rain Discussion: Light showers are widespread throughout the valley this morning, especially north of Kern County. Several more periods of shower activity can be expected through Wednesday The strongest impulse will move through late Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. This should turn out to be a significant event with most locations on the east side of the valley recording a half inch or better. The west side and Kern County can expect upwards to a quarter inch or so. We will finally get a break from the rain Wednesday night through Saturday. The next system to plunge down from the Gulf of Alaska will do so Saturday night and Sunday with on and off active weather for several days thereafter.

 

Frost Discussion.  All locations will be above 32 degrees through Wednesday morning. Thursday and Friday may be a challenge, however. A very cold air mass will plunge southward into the area Wednesday and Wednesday night. Sky cover Thursday could leave coldest locations potentially lowering down to 26 with most flatland locations between 28 and 31. Ditto that for Friday. Saturday morning’s conditions will depend upon a storm arriving during the second half of the weekend. Above freezing conditions will prevail Sunday morning and beyond.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

Af

Porterville

Af

Ivanhoe

Af

Woodlake

Af

Strathmore

Af

McFarland

Af

Ducor

Af

Tea Pot Dome

Af

Lindsay

Af

Exeter

Af

Famoso

Af

Madera

Af

Belridge

Af

Delano

Af

North Bakersfield

Af

Orosi

Af

Orange Cove

Af

Lindcove

Af

Lindcove Hillside

Af

Sanger River Bottom

Af

Root creek

Af

Venice Hill

Af

Rosedale

Af

Jasmine

Af

Arvin

Af

Lamont

Af

Plainview

Af

Mettler

Af

Edison

Af

Maricopa

Af

Holland Creek

Af

Tivy Valley

Af

Kite Road South

Af

Kite Road North

Af

AF=Above Freezing

 

Actual humidity values for Porterville 100%/62%, Delano  97%53%.  Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 40s..  Kern: Low to mid 40s..

ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .48, Parlier, .45, Arvin 67, Porterville .46, Delano .51  Soil temperatures: Stratford 49, Parlier 48, Arvin 51, Porterville 47, Delano 50 *=data missing.

Average Temperatures: 64/42  Record Temperatures: 79/26

Heating Degree Days This Season.  2001 +38 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno  12.88, Monthly  3.68

Precipitation for Bakersfield:  Season: 6.58, Monthly:  2.26

Average Temperature This Month  47.8 -2.9 Taken NWS Hanford.

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28:  Parlier 1287,  Arvin 1096, Belridge 1193, Shafter 1221, Stratford 1264,  Delano 1251,  Porterville  1231  courtesy UC Davis

Sunrise 5:31, sunset, 5:52.  hours of daylight, 11:18

 

Yesterday’s Weather:                                         H        L         R

MCE   : Merced AP        153 :  53 /  46 /  0.27 /

MAE   : Madera AP        253 :  53 /  45 /  0.07 /

FAT   : Fresno AP        333 :  52 /  44 /  0.07 /

HJO   : Hanford AP       242 :  55 /  47 /  0.13 /

NLC   : Lemoore NAS      234 :  55 /  46 /  0.05 /

BFL   : Bakersfield AP   496 :  55 /  41 /     T /

VIS   : Visalia AP       292 :  53 /  45 /  0.08 /

Central CA. Rainfall:                                                                             

STOCKTON                      0.33   16.45   175    8.21    87     9.42    13.45

MODESTO                       0.29   14.52   173    8.16    97     8.40    12.27

MERCED                        0.33   14.48   183    5.87    74     7.91    11.80

MADERA                        0.40    5.54    79    1.56    22     7.04    10.79

FRESNO                        0.69   12.86   181    5.25    74     7.11    10.99

HANFORD                       0.44   10.15   192    4.78    91     5.28     8.13

BAKERSFIELD                   0.95    6.55   159    3.67    89     4.13     6.36

BISHOP                        0.35    9.63   295    4.50   138     3.26     4.84

DEATH VALLEY NP                  M    0.41    31       M     M     1.32     2.20

SALINAS                          T    9.84   112    6.18    70     8.78    12.58

PASO ROBLES                   0.07   15.12   181    7.37    88     8.36    12.15

SANTA MARIA                   0.04   16.51   183    6.33    70     9.00    13.32

 

Next report: February 27 afternoon

 

At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.