February 28, 2023 afternoon report

February 28, 2023

The last low to move through the main trough of low pressure is now digging southward into central California. As of midday, showers have spread as far south as Madera County. Showers will spread over the remainder of the valley this afternoon and evening. Showers will continue well into Wednesday morning before the low finally shifts eastward into Arizona Wednesday night. Very cold air will wrap around the back side of the exiting low, injecting very cold air onto the valley floor. gusty northwesterly winds will move down the valley Wednesday and Wednesday evening. Sub freezing temperatures are a given Thursday and Friday mornings. Widespread mid to upper 20s are likely, assuming skies clear in a timely manner and winds die off. High pressure will briefly build in from the west Wednesday night through Friday night for a well deserved reprieve from the precipitation. models are still having a difficult time determining the southern limit of light shower activity from late Saturday night through Sunday. The bulk of the models indicate a chance of light showers as far south as Kern County. The chance of active weather will continue through Monday night with possibly some dry weather from Wednesday through Wednesday night. An interesting looking low will drop down from the Gulf of Alaska in the form of a trough which is projected to turn into an intensifying low off the central coast Thursday. It will swing inland Thursday night through Saturday with potentially significant precipitation lasting into Friday night. This is the second model run this system has shown up.

Forecast: Showers tonight and Wednesday morning. Mostly to partly cloudy Wednesday afternoon. Partly cloudy and cold Wednesday night. Becoming mostly clear Thursday through Friday night. Increasing cloudiness Saturday. A chance of light showers Saturday night and Sunday. A chance of showers Sunday night through Tuesday.

Temperatures:

Madera 36/48/28/53	Reedley 36/49/29/53	Dinuba 35/48/28/52
Porterville 37/50/28/52	Lindsay 36/49/27/53	Delano 37/48/29/53
Bakersfield 37/47/31/52	Taft 36/48/33/53	Arvin 37/48/30/54
Lamont 37/48/29/54	Pixley 35/48/29/54	Tulare 35/47/27/53
Woodlake 36/48/28/53	Hanford 36/49/28/54	Orosi 35/49/28/53

Wind Discussion: Winds tonight will be mainly out of the southeast at 8 to 15 mph with stronger gusts. Winds Wednesday will be out of the northwest at 15 to 25 mph at times with gusts to 35 mph possible, mainly along the west side but locally elsewhere. Winds Wednesday night will be out of the northwest at 8 to 15 mph with stronger gusts, diminishing after midnight. Winds Thursday through Friday will be generally at or less than 12 mph with periods of near calm conditions, mainly during the night and morning hours.

Rain: As of midday, showers have spread as far south as Madera County. showers will continue to press their way southward through the remainder of the day, continuing at times tonight and Wednesday morning. Rainfall amounts for the rest of this event will generally be in the .25 to .33 range along the east side of the valley north of Kern County and .25 along the west side and over the valley portion of Kern County. As very cold air dives southward tonight, it’s possible a few snow flakes could reach the valley floor. that’s not in the forecast, just an intriguing thought for now. Dry weather will prevail from later Wednesday afternoon through Saturday. The latest high resolution model information indicates shower activity will spread down the valley Saturday night and Sunday, mainly north of Kern County with at least a chance of light showers Monday into Tuesday. For the second day in a row, models show an interesting low off the central coast Thursday and moving inland into central California Thursday night and Friday with possibly another round of significant precipitation. This is definitely not in concrete, but considering the trends of this winter, it would not be a surprise.

Frost: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight. The latest information for Thursday and Friday look similar to previous model runs with widespread mid to upper 20s Thursday and Friday mornings. Under ideal frost conditions…clear skies, no mixing, and not wind…coldest frost pockets could chill down to 25 to 26 with widespread readings from 27 to 30 on both mornings. We will be dealing with the potential for upslope clouds Thursday morning and possible elevated wind conditions, especially along the west side. If we receive the blessing of cloud cover Thursday morning, lows would range from 28 to 32. Drier air should mix out any residual cloud cover Friday morning and, with little to no wind, widespread mid to upper 20s are again a given. We’ll see some modification Saturday morning. If skies are clear, upper 20s to lower 30s are likely. Cloud cover from the next weather system may arrive Saturday morning, but that’s speculative at this time. Sunday through Wednesday will be above freezing, but possibly just above freezing that has clear skies.

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

Porterville

Ivanhoe

Woodlake

Strathmore

McFarland

Ducor

Tea Pot Dome

Lindsay

Exeter

Famoso

Madera

Belridge

Delano

North Bakersfield

Orosi

Orange Cove

Lindcove

Lindcove Hillside

Sanger River Bottom

Root creek

Venice Hill

Rosedale

Jasmine

Arvin

Lamont

Plainview

Mettler

Edison

Maricopa

Holland Creek

Tivy Valley

Kite Road South

Kite Road North

Next report: March 1 morning

At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.