February 28, 2023
Through this whole sequence of events this past week, the eastern Pacific high has been located roughly 1,800 miles west of it’s average position. This has opened the floodgates of semi arctic origin to plunge southward down the west coast and into California with very cold temperatures and unusually heavy precip, especially over the mountains. The last in the series for now will spread showers down the valley this afternoon and tonight with snow levels dropping to as low as 1,000 feet. The current level is 3,500 feet, however the coldest air of this series is located over the Pacific Northwest and will arrive late tonight and Wednesday. Rainfall from this last storm shows up at about a half inch, if you believe model information with lesser amounts along the west side and in Kern County. With a very cold air mass settling onto the valley floor Wednesday and Wednesday night, subfreezing temperatures will be our next challenge. It still appears mid 20s will be likely in the coldest locations. More in the frost discussion below. That eastern Pacific high I alluded to back a little will expand westward Wednesday through Saturday for a much deserved period of dry weather. Models have been going back and forth on the southern limit of precipitation for the second half of the weekend. My best guesstimate now is showers will spread down to Fresno County Sunday with unsettled weather Monday through Wednesday. Models also place a rather impressive low off the central coast next Thursday and Friday. This is just the first time this has shown up. Time will tell.
Forecast: Showers spreading southward later today. Showers tonight. Mostly cloudy Wednesday morning with a chance of showers until mid morning. Partly cloudy Wednesday afternoon and night and turning cold. Mostly clear Thursday through Saturday morning. Increasing clouds Saturday afternoon. A chance of light showers to near Merced Saturday night. A chance of showers from mainly Fresno County northward Sunday. A chance of light showers Monday through Tuesday, mainly north of Kern County.
Temperatures:
| Madera 53/35/48/28/54 | Reedley 53/36/48//29/53 | Dinuba 52/34/47/27/52 |
| Porterville 53/37/49/28/54 | Lindsay 53/36/49/27/53 | Delano 54/37/52/27/54 |
| Bakersfield 53/39/47/31/52 | Taft 53/37/47/32/52 | Arvin 54/37/48/30/56 |
| Lamont 52/37/52/29/53 | Pixley 53/35/48/28/54 | Tulare 52/34/47/27/53 |
| Woodlake 53/35/52/28/53 | Hanford 54//37/52/28/53 | Orosi 52/34/51/28/52 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Friday
Mostly clear 28/55 |
Saturday
Partly cloudy 31/57 |
Sunday
Showers north 38/61 |
Monday
Chance of showers 38/59 |
Tuesday
Chance of showers 37/58 |
Two Week Outlook: March 8 through March 15 This model indicates this will be an active period of time once again with the risk of showers. Temperatures will remain below average.
March: Above average temperatures will be confined from mainly New Mexico east. Below average temperatures will cover much of the western US, including California. Precipitation projections indicate fairly seasonal rainfall, not favoring above or below average rainfall. Let’s see how this plays out.
March, April, May: The 90 day outlook does not give much to grab onto. Above average temperatures from the Desert Southwest then all the way up the east coast with below average temperatures over the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies. Precipitation projections do not favor above or below average rainfall. I guess they’re hedging their bets.
Wind Discussion: Winds through late this evening will be mainly out of the southeast at 8 to 15 mph with local gusts to 20 mph, mainly from Fresno County north. Late tonight,, winds will turn out of the northwest at 8 to o15 mph, increasing to 15 to 25 mph with possible gusts to 35 mph, mainly along the west side of the valley. Winds will decrease to 8 to 15 mph out of the northwest, decreasing late Wednesday night. Winds Thursday will be out of the northwest at 5 to 12 mph. winds Thursday night and Friday will be generally at 5 to 12 mph with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain Discussion: Showers will again spread down the valley later today and will continue tonight. The air associated with this last wave is very cold with snow levels dropping as low as 1,000 feet. I wouldn’t be surprised to hear of snowflakes reaching the valley floor late tonight. Some lingering showers are possible through about midmorning Wednesday. The remainder of Wednesday appears dry now with dry weather Wednesday night through Saturday night. models have been flipping back and forth, trying to nail down the next weather system coming in Sunday. This appears to be a rather dry system, so even from Fresno County northward, amounts should be quite light. Unsettled weather will continue Monday through Wednesday. One model places a major winter storm just off the central coast next Thursday and Friday. This is the first model run depicting this event. I’ll know more in the coming days.
Frost Discussion. All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight, but only sightly above in the very coldest locations. Thursday and Friday mornings will be a whole new ballgame. Very cold air wrapping around the backside of the exiting low will plunge I nto the valley Wednesday and Wednesday night. Even ahead of the system, the freezing level at Oakland is 3,500 feet, which should lower another 1,000 feet or so before Wednesday evening. Widespread subfreezing weather is likely Thursday and Friday mornings. For now, it appears coldest locations will drop to near 26 with an outside chance down to 25 or so. Thursday morning will be the first period of time after an exiting storm, which means we’ll be dealing with upslope clouds, just plain residual clouds, and possie wind conditions. Winds Wednesday afternoon and evening will be strong and gusty and may stay up all night towards the center and east side of the valley. That will not be the case Friday morning. By then, winds will have died off and the chance of cloud cover helping out will be considerably less, so widespread mid to upper 20s can be expected Friday morning,, as well. By Saturday morning, the air mass will have modified somewhat. Even so, upper 20s and lower 30s are likely,, unless cloud cover arrives ahead of the next weather system which will bring a chance of showers Sunday. Currently, it looks like active weather will keep temperatures above freezing after that.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
Af |
Porterville
Af |
Ivanhoe
Af |
Woodlake
Af |
| Strathmore
Af |
McFarland
Af |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
Af |
| Lindsay
Af |
Exeter
Af |
Famoso
Af |
Madera
Af |
| Belridge
Af |
Delano
Af |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
Af |
| Orange Cove
Af |
Lindcove
Af |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
Af |
| Root creek
Af |
Venice Hill
Af |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmine
Af |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
Af |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
Af |
Tivy Valley
Af |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Actual humidity values for Porterville 100%/65%, Delano 95%52%. Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 40s.. Kern: Low to mid 40s..
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .46, Parlier, .38, Arvin 66, Porterville .40, Delano .48 Soil temperatures: Stratford 49, Parlier 48, Arvin 50, Porterville 47, Delano 49 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 65/42 Record Temperatures: 83/28
Heating Degree Days This Season. 2018 +44 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 13.04, Monthly 3.83
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 6.59, Monthly: 2.27
Average Temperature This Month 47.8 -3.1 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Parlier 1297, Arvin 1107, Belridge 1202, Shafter 1229, Stratford 1274, Delano 1267, Porterville 1240 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 5:30, sunset, 5:53. hours of daylight, 11:20
Yesterday’s Weather: H L R
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 52 / 42 / 0.50 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DHM / M / M / M /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 53 / 44 / 0.14 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 58 / 46 / 0.15 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 59 / 45 / 0.10 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 58 / 43 / 0.01 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 54 / 44 / 0.09 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / M / M /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DHM / M / M / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DHM / 58 / 45 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 53 / 42 / 0.02 /
Central CA. Rainfall:
STOCKTON 0.42 17.15 179 8.21 86 9.59 13.45
MODESTO 0.39 15.12 177 8.16 95 8.55 12.27
MERCED 0.39 15.00 186 5.87 73 8.07 11.80
MADERA 0.00 M M M M 7.18 10.79
FRESNO 0.12 13.00 179 5.25 72 7.25 10.99
HANFORD 0.12 10.30 191 4.78 89 5.39 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.01 6.59 156 3.67 87 4.22 6.36
BISHOP T 9.63 290 4.50 136 3.32 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.86 64 M M 1.35 2.20
SALINAS 0.23 10.11 113 6.18 69 8.95 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.26 15.40 180 7.37 86 8.54 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.19 16.70 182 6.33 69 9.20 13.32
Next report: February 28 afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.