March 2, 2023
It is mostly clear and cold this morning. Temperatures are generally ranging from 29 to 32. The low pressure system responsible for the showers the past couple of days has now tracked eastward and is centered over New Mexico. We will be precipitation free for a change through Saturday as high pressure over the eastern Pacific has temporarily expanded over California. This has left the Golden State under a cool northwest flow aloft. As a result, temperatures will moderate a bit. Even so, temperatures will remain below seasonal averages. The next weather system is already moving out of the Gulf of Alaska and will move into the Pacific Northwest Friday night and into northern California Saturday. Showers will spread down to a San Francisco/Sacramento line Saturday with light showers spreading down the valley Sunday, mainly north of Kern County. Model information indicates this system will be moisture starved for the valley, however, lift will help to create another foot or so of snow above 4,000 feet in the Sierra Nevada. The rain line will pull back into northern California Monday through Wednesday. For the past five days in a row, models have been projecting a smaller low moving through central California late Thursday through Friday night. That is still on this morning, however the low does not appear as pronounced and well organized as earlier depicted. After Friday of next week, the flow across the Pacific becomes zonal, or west to east, meaning there’s a chance of milder Pacific storms moving in during the medium term.. we’ll study that possible scenario in the coming days.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Friday night. Increasing cloudiness later Saturday. Mostly cloudy Saturday night with a slight risk of showers from Fresno County north. Scattered light showers Sunday and Sunday night, mainly north of Kern County. A chance of a few light showers Monday morning. Variable cloudiness at times Monday afternoon through Wednesday night. Increasing clouds Thursday with a chance of showers by evening.
Temperatures:
| Madera 55/30/58/37/60 | Reedley 56/31/58/38/59 | Dinuba 55/30/57/37/58 |
| Porterville 55/30/59/38/60 | Lindsay 56/39/58/36/59 | Delano 55/31/59/38/61 |
| Bakersfield 55/35/57/38/59 | Taft 54/39/56/39/59 | Arvin 55/32/59/38/60 |
| Lamont 55/31/59/39/61 | Pixley 55/31/57/38/58 | Tulare 55/29/57/37/58 |
| Woodlake 55/30/58/37/59 | Hanford 55/32/59/38/60 | Orosi 55/30/59/37/58 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Sunday
Light showers 39/58 |
Monday
AM showers 37/56 |
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 34/56 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 32/57 |
Thursday
Pm showers possible 34/58 |
Two Week Outlook: March 8 through March 14 This model gives the highest likelihood of precipitation anywhere in the country for this period of time to northern and central California. With the likelihood of precipitation will be below average temperatures.
March: Above average temperatures will be confined from mainly New Mexico east. Below average temperatures will cover much of the western US, including California. Precipitation projections indicate fairly seasonal rainfall, not favoring above or below average rainfall. Let’s see how this plays out.
March, April, May: The 90 day outlook does not give much to grab onto. Above average temperatures from the Desert Southwest then all the way up the east coast with below average temperatures over the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies. Precipitation projections do not favor above or below average rainfall. I guess they’re hedging their bets.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 12 mph during the afternoons through Saturday. During the night and morning hours, winds will be generally at or less than 7 mph with periods of near calm conditions. Winds will become out of the southeast Saturday night and Sunday at 5 to 15 mph.
Rain Discussion: Dry weather will prevail through Saturday. A few light showers could spread as far south as Fresno County Saturday night. Scattered light showers are possible Sunday through Monday morning, mainly north of Kern County. Only light amounts can be expected on the valley floor, generally less than .25. Kern County may pick up just a few hundredths at best. Dry weather will prevail Monday afternoon through Wednesday night. Models have been projecting a rain event late Thursday through Friday night. That is still on. However, models this morning show a less organized system, so precipitation amounts may be lighter than earlier thought.
Frost Discussion. It’s cold out there this morning with 28 at Maricopa and 29 at several other locations as of 6:00am. Fortunately, readings did not fall to their projected lows last night with most locations ranging from 29 to 32. Similar conditions can be expected tonight as a more stable environment will prevail, meaning generally clear skies with little or no wind. Coldest unprotected areas could drop to 28 with most locations coming in at between 29 and 33. Hillsides will be above freezing. Fortunately, we’re late enough in the year for the air mass to modify more quickly.
The inversion tonight will be stronger, with temperatures at 34 feet generally 4 to 8 degrees warmer.
All locations will be above freezing Sunday and Monday mornings. Low to mid 30s are possible Tuesday through Thursday. By the late part of the work week and into next weekend, cloud cover will be increasing ahead of the next Pacific storm. Models show a west to east flow beginning this coming weekend which would cut off the northerly flow of recent weeks. This translates into above freezing conditions for this weekend and beyond.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
30 |
Porterville
29 |
Ivanhoe
29 |
Woodlake
30 |
| Strathmore
31 |
McFarland
30 |
Ducor
31 |
Tea Pot Dome
30 |
| Lindsay
29 |
Exeter
29 |
Famoso
30 |
Madera
30 |
| Belridge
29 |
Delano
31 |
North Bakersfield
31 |
Orosi
29 |
| Orange Cove
30 |
Lindcove
29 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
27 |
| Root Creek
29 |
Venice Hill
30 |
Rosedale
31 |
Jasmine
31 |
| Arvin
32 |
Lamont
32 |
Plainview
30 |
Mettler
33 |
| Edison
33 |
Maricopa
30 |
Holland Creek
32 |
Tivy Valley
29 |
| Kite Road South
32 |
Kite Road North
29 |
AF=Above Freezing
Actual humidity values for Porterville 100%/65%, Delano 95%52%. Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 40s.. Kern: Low to mid 40s..
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .46, Parlier, .38, Arvin 66, Porterville .40, Delano .48 Soil temperatures: Stratford 49, Parlier 48, Arvin 50, Porterville 47, Delano 49 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 65/42 Record Temperatures: 83/28
Heating Degree Days This Season. 2018 +44 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 13.04, Monthly 3.83
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 6.59, Monthly: 2.27
Average Temperature This Month 47.8 -3.1 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Parlier 1297, Arvin 1107, Belridge 1202, Shafter 1229, Stratford 1274, Delano 1267, Porterville 1240 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 5:30, sunset, 5:53. hours of daylight, 11:20
Yesterday’s Weather: H L R
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 52 / 42 / 0.50 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DHM / M / M / M /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 53 / 44 / 0.14 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 58 / 46 / 0.15 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 59 / 45 / 0.10 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 58 / 43 / 0.01 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 54 / 44 / 0.09 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / M / M /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DHM / M / M / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DHM / 58 / 45 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 53 / 42 / 0.02 /
Central CA. Rainfall:
STOCKTON 0.42 17.15 179 8.21 86 9.59 13.45
MODESTO 0.39 15.12 177 8.16 95 8.55 12.27
MERCED 0.39 15.00 186 5.87 73 8.07 11.80
MADERA 0.00 M M M M 7.18 10.79
FRESNO 0.12 13.00 179 5.25 72 7.25 10.99
HANFORD 0.12 10.30 191 4.78 89 5.39 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.01 6.59 156 3.67 87 4.22 6.36
BISHOP T 9.63 290 4.50 136 3.32 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.86 64 M M 1.35 2.20
SALINAS 0.23 10.11 113 6.18 69 8.95 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.26 15.40 180 7.37 86 8.54 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.19 16.70 182 6.33 69 9.20 13.32
Next report: March 2 afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.