March 4, 2023
Currently, the leading edge of the next very cold air mass is on a line from roughly Red Bluff to Northwest San Francisco then southwestward out to sea. That is the cold front that will move down the valley tonight, spreading showers ahead of it, reaching Fresno County during the late evening hours and Kern County by sunrise. Models continue to indicate the front will lose much of its upper air support as it moves into the south valley, so precipitation amounts, especially in Kern County, are expected to be light. Showers will continue Sunday morning then will begin to taper off during the afternoon with dry weather returning Sunday night. The trough will remain pretty much in place, covering western Canada southward into northern California through Thursday. Models are still showing the rain line moving north after Sunday with generally dry weather with the possible exception of the Sierra Nevada where light snow showers cannot be ruled out, mainly from Yosemite north. Temperatures this upcoming week will continue to run well below average with some moderation in our temperatures finally coming this upcoming weekend as weak high pressure builds in from the west.
Forecast: Showers spreading southward tonight. Showers Sunday, tapering off in the afternoon. Partly cloudy Sunday night through Monday. partly cloudy Monday night through Friday. Mostly clear Friday night through Saturday.
Temperatures:
Madera 39/53/33/55 | Reedley 40/54/34/55 | Dinuba 38/54/33/55 |
Porterville 39/54/35/54 | Lindsay 38/53/33/54 | Delano 40/54/35/54 |
Bakersfield 40/53/37/55 | Taft 41/54/37/54 | Arvin 39/55/35/54 |
Lamont 40/53/37/54 | Pixley 38/53/34/55 | Tulare 37/52/33/55 |
Woodlake 39/54/34/54 | Hanford 39/55/34/54 | Orosi 39/54/34/53 |
Wind Discussion: Winds this evening will be out of the northwest at 8 to 15 mph with stronger gusts. Winds late and Sunday will be out of the southeast at 8 to 15 mph with locally stronger gusts. Winds Sunday night through Tuesday will be generally at or less than 12 mph and mainly out of the northwest afternoons and evenings with periods of near calm conditions during the night and early morning hours.
Rain: A band of light showers has spread as far south as a Stockton/Monterey line as of 1:00pm. Snow showers have spread as far south as Huntington Lake. Showers will slowly cover the valley tonight and will continue on and off through Sunday morning, tapering off during the afternoon. Even though I have not achieved much confidence in the latest model info, it appears this may be the only measurable precipitation event this week. along the east side of the valley, from now through Sunday evening, between .25 and .33 seems plausible with locally more in Merced County. Tulare County may measure upwards of .25 with no more than .10 along the eastern edge of Fresno and Kings Counties. For now it looks like the valley portion of Kern County will record less than .10. Again, models are quite different in projections, but it actually appears that this upcoming week after Sunday will be dry with the possible exception of the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada which will have a chance of snow showers from time to time through Wednesday
Frost: The latest winter storm will advance on the valley tonight, ensuring most locations will be in the mid 30s to near 40. A colder air mass will begin to invade the valley again tonight with highs only in the low to mid 50s both Sunday and Monday. as was mentioned in the morning report, any morning through Friday will drop into the low to mid 30s. on any of these mornings where skies are clear and winds are near calm, river bottom or similar low spots could drop to 28 to 30. A semi arctic air mass will be over the western states for much of the week. I don’t see much modification until maybe Saturday as that cold low will blanket everything from western Canada to southern California.
Next report: March 5 morning
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