March 5, 2023
A cold front is currently moving through the south valley. Doppler radar indicates there are numerous showers at this hour, mainly north of Kern County. The latest balloon sounding above Oakland indicated a freezing level of just 3,300 feet. With very cold air above the valley floor, and partial clearing this afternoon, there just may be some isolated thunderstorms. Currently, the jet stream is running from north to south from British Columbia then it makes a turn and runs from west to east across central California. This is resulting in more heavy snow move the Sierra Nevada. This persistent cold trough of low pressure over the western US will continue through Wednesday night. Models do indicate, however, the jet stream will pull a bit further north beginning tonight, so active weather will pull back into northern California with a period of dry weather from tonight through Wednesday night. Finally, a break in this cold pattern will begin Thursday as the cold trough pulls off to the northeast, allowing a westerly flow to begin. Models seem to be trending back to a lower latitude storm moving into California with the possibility of rain again as early as Thursday night. Models are more bullish this afternoon in indicating a more substantial precipitation event, especially Friday into Saturday. In fact, a mild west to east flow will persist not only through the weekend, but for much of the following week, as well. Embedded within this flow will be milder Pacific storms with much higher snow levels. This brings us to the next question of how much rain will fall over a massive Sierra snowpack.
Forecast: Showers this afternoon with a chance of isolated thunderstorms. A chance of showers for a time this evening, otherwise it will be partly cloudy tonight but may remain mostly cloudy in Kern County and southeastern Tulare County. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Monday through Wednesday night. Increasing cloudiness Thursday leading to a chance of showers after midnight Thursday night. A chance of rain Friday, becoming likely Friday night with a chance of showers Saturday. Partly cloudy Saturday night and Sunday.
Temperatures: Lows tonight and Monday night will chill into the low to mid 30s. Highs Monday and Tuesday will warm into the mid to upper 50s.
Frost Discussion. Tonight will be the first night behind a trough of low pressure. Cold air has already settled onto the valley floor so tonight’s temperatures will be determined by cloud cover and, to a lesser extent, wind conditions. Upslope clouds will no doubt re-form against the north facing slopes of the Tehachapi Mountains and the west facing slopes of the Sierra Nevada. My feeling is, most locations tonight will bottom out into the low to mid 30s the individual numbers below are projections for the lowest possible temperatures. If cloud cover is fairly persistent tonight, mid 30s to even the mid 40s are possible. There is a chance that if a location has clear skies and calm winds. isolated river bottom locations could briefly dip into the upper 20s. Tuesday through Thursday mornings will see widespread low to mid 30s with isolated river bottoms possibly briefly touching the upper 20s. a much milder pattern will begin to evolve Friday as a west to east jet stream moves into California, pushing highs back into the 60s and lows in the 40s. The medium range outlook indicates a mild, possibly wet pattern will set up about mid week for above freezing temperatures.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
33 |
Porterville
32 |
Ivanhoe
31 |
Woodlake
32 |
| Strathmore
32 |
McFarland
31 |
Ducor
33 |
Tea Pot Dome
32 |
| Lindsay
30 |
Exeter
31 |
Famoso
33 |
Madera
32 |
| Belridge
30 |
Delano
33 |
North Bakersfield
33 |
Orosi
32 |
| Orange Cove
32 |
Lindcove
30 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
29 |
| Root Creek
29 |
Venice Hill
30 |
Rosedale
31 |
Jasmine
31 |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
af |
Plainview
31 |
Mettler
AF |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
Af |
Tivy Valley
32 |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
32 |
Next report: March 6
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.