March 9, 2023
The first precursors of a major winter event are beginning to show up off the central coast in the form of light showers. The air mass over California is still cold. For example, the freezing level taken over Oakland a short time ago was just 4,400 feet. That will rise dramatically over the next 24 hours as moist subtropical air begins to flood the eastern Pacific, reaching California during the late afternoon or evening hours today. Quantitative precipitation estimates this morning are absolutely staggering. One model by the river forecast center indicates anywhere from 8 to 15 inches will fall along the Sierra Nevada from today through March 14. Just this first storm, which will arrive this evening, six inch plus totals are expected between tonight and Saturday. Valley rainfall estimates are discussed below in the rainfall summary. There is so much subtropical moisture over the Pacific Ocean that we need to place a chance of rain in the forecast for every day through next Wednesday even though there will be three separate systems affecting us during that time. The first system will arrive tonight through Saturday. The second, Monday night through Wednesday. And the third between next Saturday night and the following Monday. current models after the third storm look dry at this point.
Forecast: increasing clouds today. Rain tonight through Friday night, locally heavy at times. A chance of showers Saturday night. Partly cloudy Sunday through Monday morning. A chance of showers by Monday evening. Rain becoming likely at times Monday night into Wednesday. A chance of showers Wednesday afternoon. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Wednesday night through Thursday night.
Temperatures: Highs today and Friday will warm into the mid to upper 60s. Lows tonight will cool into the upper 40s to the mid 50s. Highs Friday will war into the mid to upper 60s. lows Friday night will cool into mid 50s. highs Saturday will rise into the mid 60s to near 70.
Rain Discussion: Light showers are already beginning to show up off the central coast on radar. However, the deep tropical moisture will not arrive until this evening. It’s worth mentioning again that the California/Nevada forecast center is forecasting 10 to 15 inches of rain between today and March 14 over the Sierra. Very impressive estimates are also available for the valley floor. again, between tonight and the 14, 3 to 4 inch totals are forecast for Merced and Fresno Counties, 2 to 3 inches at Porterville, .50 to1.00 at Coalinga and Bakersfield where the rain shadow will be most pronounced. Just from this first storm alone, 2 inches are forecast for the east side of the valley. There are currently 3 separate storm systems, each of which is subtropical. One will arrive tonight through Saturday, the second from Monday night through Wednesday, and the third Saturday ngit through the following Monday.
Actual humidity values for Porterville 100%/52%, Delano 96%43%. Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 30s. Kern: Low to mid 30s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .73, Parlier, .63, Arvin 66, Porterville .62, Delano .69 Soil temperatures: Stratford 49, Parlier 49, Arvin 52, Porterville 48, Delano 50 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 66/44 Record Temperatures: 86/32
Heating Degree Days This Season. 2159 +101 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 14.19, Monthly .71
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 6.91, Monthly: .15
Average Temperature This Month 47.4 -7.3 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Parlier 1315, Arvin 1120, Belridge 1212, Shafter 1238, Stratford 1285, Delano 1281, Porterville 1254 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 6:17, sunset, 6:02. Hours of daylight, 11:42
Yesterday’s Weather: H L R
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 55 / 40 / 0.01 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 58 / 39 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 59 / 40 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 62 / 36 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 60 / 36 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1500 / 49 / 36 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 59 / 37 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1552 / 57 / 40 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 55 / 42 / T /
Central CA. Rainfall: Seas. % L.Y. % Ave. S.Ave
STOCKTON 0.01 17.88 175 8.21 80 10.22 13.45
MODESTO T 15.84 173 8.17 89 9.14 12.27
MERCED 0.01 15.87 183 5.88 68 8.66 11.80
MADERA 0.00 7.98 102 1.58 20 7.83 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 14.19 181 5.43 69 7.82 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 10.78 185 5.29 91 5.84 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 6.91 151 4.35 95 4.58 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 9.97 282 4.50 127 3.53 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.93 63 M M 1.47 2.20
SALINAS 0.05 10.98 114 6.26 65 9.63 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 15.94 171 7.37 79 9.34 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 18.43 184 6.35 63 10.03 13.32
Next report: March 9 afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible