March 10, 2023 am
Heavy precipitation was measured all over central California overnight with the exception of the extreme south valley which has been under a rain shadow. Rainfall along the southern Sierra Nevada from late yesterday afternoon through 5:00 this morning has generally ranged between 2 and 5 inches. More in the rainfall discussion.
Satellite imagery depicts a low center just off the Oregon coastline. Underneath that low is the jet stream which is running southwest to northeast perpendicular to the Sierra Nevada. Lift from the mountain ranges squeezes out impressive amounts of rain from those clouds. Do you remember last week when the freezing level was about 3,000 feet or so, sometimes even lower? The balloon sounding above Oakland a short time ago indicated a freezing level of 9,300 feet. A train of energy will continue across the Pacific and into California. The precipitation pattern will become more spotty later today. If there are any breaks in the overcast allowing the sun to warm the ground, isolated heavy thunderstorms will be possible. Showers will taper off tonight with generally dry weather Sunday through Monday morning.
Storm number 2 will approach the coast Monday afternoon, spreading rain over all of central California again with very high snow levels.
The next break will begin by Wednesday night. However, like yesterday afternoon’s’ models, models this morning show a weaker system moving on shore. They also indicate the dynamics of the system will be further north, raising the question whether or not rain will even reach the coastline. If it does, it will be somewhere near Saturday of next week.
Forecast: Periods of rain today with a chance of isolated thunderstorms. Any thunderstorm would be accompanied by very brief heavy rain. Showers tonight, tapering off after midnight. A chance of showers, mainly Saturday morning, tapering off in the afternoon. Partly cloudy Saturday night through Sunday night. Increasing cloudiness Monday with rain spreading over the valley late afternoon. Rain at times Monday night through Wednesday. Partly cloudy Wednesday night through Friday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 64/53/66/51/68 | Reedley 65/54/68/53/69 | Dinuba 64/53/67/52/68 |
| Porterville 67/54/68/53/68 | Lindsay 67/53/68/52/68 | Delano 67/54/67/53//68 |
| Bakersfield 69/56/68/53/68 | Taft 71/55/68/53/68 | Arvin 71/55/70/53/69 |
| Lamont 70/54/69/53/69 | Pixley 65/53/66/51/67 | Tulare 65/53/66/53/67 |
| Woodlake 65/53/67/51/67 | Hanford 67/53/68/52/68 | Orosi 65/53/67/51/67 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Monday
Pm rain possible 50/68 |
Tuesday
Rain likely 53/70 |
Wednesday
Showers likely 48/67 |
Thursday
Partly cloudy 39/62 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 38/62 |
Two Week Outlook: March 17 through March 23 This model continues to show an active storm track into California. Temperatures will be close to seasonal averages.
March: Above average temperatures will be confined from mainly New Mexico east. Below average temperatures will cover much of the western US, including California. Precipitation projections indicate fairly seasonal rainfall, not favoring above or below average rainfall. Let’s see how this plays out.
March, April, May: The 90 day outlook does not give much to grab onto. Above average temperatures from the Desert Southwest then all the way up the east coast with below average temperatures over the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies. Precipitation projections do not favor above or below average rainfall. I guess they’re hedging their bets.
Wind Discussion: Winds will continue to be mainly out of the southeast at 10 to 20 mph at times through tonight. Gusts to 30 mph are possible along the west side and from Fresno County north. Winds Saturday will be variable to 15 mph with stronger gusts in the vicinity of showers. Winds Sunday through Monday will be generally at or less than 12 mph. this weather note: winds could pospsibly become a challenge Tuesday and Tuesday night in the south valley. The proper configuration is there with a low just off San Francisco with considerably higher barometric pressure over southern California and Nevada. This isn’t officially in the forecast yest, however it’s something to watch over the next few days.
Rain Discussion: Rain began yesterday generally late in the afternoon in most areas. Since then, impressive amounts of rain have accumulated in the mountain areas. In the foothills and higher mountains, rainfall amounts have generally ranged between 2 and 5 inches. Heaviest amounts so far have been measured in Tulare County. On the valley floor, Exeter has measured 1.06. Bakersfield .05, Visalia 1.00, Tulare .88, Lemoore .98, Fresno .03, Madera .58, and Merced .37.
Periods of rain will continue today then will change into more of a spotty showery pattern. showers will taper off later this afternoon with generally dry weather Saturday night through Monday morning.
The next storm system is also moisture laden and will have high snow levels. Rain may begin as early as Monday afternoon with rain likely at times Monday night well into Wednesday.
Storm number 3 for this coming weekend continues to look weak. In fact, it’s now possible all the precipitation may remain north of the growing area.
Frost Discussion. All locations will be above freezing.
Actual humidity values for Porterville 100%/45%, Delano 89%38%. Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 30s. Kern: Low to mid 30s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .67, Parlier, .61, Arvin 71, Porterville .66, Delano .71 Soil temperatures: Stratford 50, Parlier 50, Arvin 52, Porterville 49, Delano 51 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 67/44 Record Temperatures: 82/31
Heating Degree Days This Season. 2159 +101 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 14.61, Monthly .1.13
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 6.94, Monthly: .18
Average Temperature This Month 47.4 -7.3 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Parlier 1315, Arvin 1120, Belridge 1212, Shafter 1238, Stratford 1285, Delano 1281, Porterville 1254 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 6:16, sunset, 6:03. Hours of daylight, 11:45
Yesterday’s Weather: H L R
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 57 / 38 / 0.10 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 58 / 37 / 0.15 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 59 / 42 / 0.18 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 60 / 37 / 0.04 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 59 / 36 / 0.02 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1500 / 68 / 38 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 60 / 38 / 0.04 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 65 / 36 / 0.01 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1555 / 64 / 40 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / M / 40 / M /
Central CA. Rainfall: Seas. % L.Y. % Ave. S.Ave
STOCKTON 0.25 18.13 176 8.21 80 10.29 13.45
MODESTO 0.20 16.04 174 8.17 89 9.20 12.27
MERCED 0.10 15.97 183 5.88 67 8.72 11.80
MADERA 0.15 8.13 103 1.58 20 7.90 10.79
FRESNO 0.19 14.38 182 5.43 69 7.89 10.99
HANFORD 0.05 10.83 184 5.29 90 5.89 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 6.91 149 4.35 94 4.63 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 9.97 281 4.50 127 3.55 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.93 63 M M 1.48 2.20
SALINAS 0.20 11.18 115 6.26 65 9.70 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.03 15.97 169 7.37 78 9.43 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.06 18.49 183 6.35 63 10.12 13.32
Next report: March 10 afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.