March 11, 2023 am
Even though the heaviest portion of this first storm event is behind us, rivers and streams along the Sierra Nevada are still raging. The cooler portion, if you want to call it that, of the low is now above central California. This is reflected in the freezing level which at yesterday morning was at 9,300 feet but today is at 7,800 feet. The California/Nevada River Forecast Center continues to put out staggering amounts of precipitation on their precipitation forecast page. For example, this morning, between March 10 and March 16, as much as 15 to 20 inches of rain will be measured along the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada. Keep in mind, though, yesterday was the10th and some of these areas realized 10 to 12 inches yesterday alone. Models show another impulse of energy riding the jet stream and moving into central California this afternoon through the evening hours. However, precipitation will be much lighter than the first blast which came in yesterday. Satellite imagery depicts a classic pineapple connection between the central and southern California coast all the way to Hawaii. The chance of rain will decrease considerably tonight through Monday. rain will begin to spread in from the west Monday night with rain at times well into Wednesday. Quantitative precipitation estimates for this storm are not quite as heavy, but nevertheless impressive. Between Monday night and Wednesday, another 1 to 2 inches of rain is possible on the east side of the valley north of Kern County with lesser amounts elsewhere. Along the Sierra Nevada, another 4 to 8 inches of rain are possible to compound an already ugly flood situation. We’re going to add a chance of showers Friday and Saturday to the forecast as storm number 3 is showing up a little stronger. Even if it does rain, amounts will be quite light. However, on the flip side, storm number 4 (yes, there’s now a 4) shows up for Monday and Tuesday of the following week.
Forecast: A chance of showers this morning. That chance will become likely by this afternoon and evening. Isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out this afternoon. Partly cloudy later tonight through Monday. increasing cloudiness Monday afternoon. Rain at times Monday night through Wednesday. Becoming partly cloudy Wednesday night through Thursday night. A small chance of light showers Friday through Saturday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 66/51/67/48/69 | Reedley 68/51/68/49/69 | Dinuba 67//50/68/50/69 |
| Porterville 69/50/68/49/70 | Lindsay 67/49/68/49/69 | Delano 68/51/68/51/70 |
| Bakersfield 69/52/68/52/71 | Taft 69/52/70/51/70 | Arvin 69/52/68/52/71 |
| Lamont 69/52/69/52/71 | Pixley 67/49/68/49/69 | Tulare 66/48/68/48/69 |
| Woodlake 67/49/68/49/69 | Hanford 69/51/68/50/70 | Orosi 67/48/68/48/68 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Tuesday
Rain likely 52/68 |
Wednesday
Showers likely 48/65 |
Thursday
Partly cloudy 40/62 |
Friday
Chance of showers 43/64 |
Saturday
Chance of showers 43/67 |
Two Week Outlook: March 17 through March 23 This model continues to show an active storm track into California. Temperatures will be close to seasonal averages.
March: Above average temperatures will be confined from mainly New Mexico east. Below average temperatures will cover much of the western US, including California. Precipitation projections indicate fairly seasonal rainfall, not favoring above or below average rainfall. Let’s see how this plays out.
March, April, May: The 90 day outlook does not give much to grab onto. Above average temperatures from the Desert Southwest then all the way up the east coast with below average temperatures over the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies. Precipitation projections do not favor above or below average rainfall. I guess they’re hedging their bets.
Wind Discussion: Winds through this evening will be generally variable at 8 to 15 mph. Winds tonight through Sunday night will be generally at or less than 12 mph and variable in nature. we are still looking at projected pressure gradients for Monday night and Tuesday. For now, it appears a significant difference in pressure will exist between a deep surface low near San Francisco and higher pressure over southern California and the Desert Southwest. This will generate gusty southeast winds up the valley at 15 to 30 mph, mainly up the west side. The possibility remains that strong downslope winds could move off the Tehachapi Mountains and into the Kern County portion of the valley floor. winds in excess of 50 mph cannot be ruled out near places like the bottom of the Grapevine, Wheeler Ridge, Taft, and other traditional windy spots. These winds will die off Tuesday evening when pressure relaxes with much lighter winds Wednesday.
Rain Discussion: Currently, we’re in a relatively quiet spell. However, models show another piece of energy rapidly moving on shore during the afternoon and evening hours. Periods of showers can be expected along with a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon. The chance of showers will decrease this evening with dry weather later tonight through Monday. the next Pacific low will move on shore Monday night with precipitation at times Tuesday through Wednesday. This will be another significant rainfall event for central California, not as heavy as storm number 1, however between 1 and 2 inches of rain is possible for the east side of the valley north of Kern County. Along the west side, around .75 to 1.00 is possible and over the valley portion of Kern County, around .50 or so. Expect dry weather Wednesday night through Thursday night. We decided to add a small chance of light showers to the forecast for Friday through Saturday as models show a bit more imagery with this system. And, this morning for the first time, a forth system is expected about Monday of the following week. it’s too early to tell how strong this storm will be, but for now it looks like a fourth round of precipitation will begin about a week from Monday.
Frost Discussion. All locations will be above freezing.
Actual humidity values for Porterville 100%/92%, Delano 94%86%. Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 50. Kern: Low to mid 50s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .59, Parlier, .51, Arvin 60, Porterville .56, Delano .61 Soil temperatures: Stratford 50, Parlier 51, Arvin 53, Porterville 49, Delano 52 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 67/44 Record Temperatures: 86/30
Heating Degree Days This Season. 2198. +111 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 15.49, Monthly 2.01
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 7.43, Monthly: .67
Average Temperature This Month 48.7 -6.3 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Parlier 1315, Arvin 1120, Belridge 1212, Shafter 1238, Stratford 1285, Delano 1281, Porterville 1254 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 7:14, sunset, 7:03. Hours of daylight, 11:47
Yesterday’s Weather: H L R
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 62 / 52 / 0.61 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 58 / M / 0.32 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 62 / 56 / 0.58 /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 64 / M / 0.63 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 66 / 52 / 0.38 /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 65 / 57 / 0.44 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 61 / 55 / 1.00 /
PTV : Porterville AP 442 : 62 / 54 / 1.37 /
Central CA. Rainfall: Seas. % L.Y. % Ave. S.Ave
STOCKTON 0.52 19.53 189 8.21 79 10.35 13.45
MODESTO 0.42 16.60 179 8.17 88 9.26 12.27
MERCED 0.55 16.65 189 5.88 67 8.79 11.80
MADERA 0.59 8.88 111 1.58 20 7.97 10.79
FRESNO 0.88 15.49 195 5.43 68 7.95 10.99
HANFORD 1.06 12.07 203 5.29 89 5.94 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.48 7.42 159 4.35 93 4.66 6.36
BISHOP 1.98 12.20 342 4.50 126 3.57 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP M 0.93 62 M M 1.49 2.20
SALINAS 1.42 12.40 127 6.26 64 9.78 12.58
PASO ROBLES 1.04 17.16 180 7.37 77 9.52 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.72 19.33 189 6.35 62 10.21 13.32
Next report: March 11 afternoon
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.