Due to a medical appointment, we will be out of the office this afternoon. The next report will be Thursday morning, March 16.
March 15, 2023 am
As of the time of this writing, the far back side of the shower activity was moving through Kern County and eastern Tulare County. This activity will push off to the east over the next few hours. This will lead us into a couple of days of dry weather as satellite imagery is showing a gap between the low, exiting stage right. For several days now, modeling has depicted the next system as a weak one and fragmented. Only a minimal chance of light showers will mark its passage Friday night. The risk factor for rain will be somewhat higher Saturday night and Sunday, however this system also is disorganized. Still, I’m going to add a chance of rain to the forecast for Saturday night and Sunday. The storm of greatest interest will be approaching the coast Monday afternoon. Timing issues prevail with this system as does the intensity. By Monday evening, a surface low will be approaching the northern California coast. The jet stream will be adding upper air support to this system not to mention the large amount of subtropical moisture. The time frame of Monday afternoon through Wednesday will be an active period. This far out, it’s difficult to estimate precipitation totals. One model is showing 1.50 of rain in Porterville from Monday through Wednesday. Thursday and Friday of next week will be dry with possibly yet another chance of rain this weekend.
Forecast: Becoming partly cloudy through tonight. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Thursday through Friday. Mostly cloudy Friday night with a slight chance of showers. Partly cloudy Saturday. A chance of showers Saturday night through Sunday. A slight chance of showers Sunday night. A chance of rain Monday afternoon. Period of rain Monday night through Wednesday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 62/40/64/42/63 | Reedley 62/41/65/44/65 | Dinuba 61/39/65/44/65 |
| Porterville 63/40/64/44/64 | Lindsay 61/38/65/43/66 | Delano 61/42/65/44/66 |
| Bakersfield 60//45/64/47/64 | Taft 60/46/63/47/63 | Arvin 63/44/65/45/65 |
| Lamont 62/44/64/45/65 | Pixley 61/41/61/43/63 | Tulare 60/40/64/43/64 |
| Woodlake 59/38/65/43/65 | Hanford 61/41/65/45/64 | Orosi 60/39/64/42/63 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Saturday
Partly cloudy 45/63 |
Sunday
Chance of showers 47/65 |
Monday
Pm rain possible 47/66 |
Tuesday
Rain likely 49/64 |
Wednesday
Rain likely 46/63 |
Two Week Outlook: March 22 through March 28 This model continues to indicate a persistent westerly flow into California from time to time. This pattern will favor above average precipitation and near average precipitation.
March: Above average temperatures will be confined from mainly New Mexico east. Below average temperatures will cover much of the western US, including California. Precipitation projections indicate fairly seasonal rainfall, not favoring above or below average rainfall. Let’s see how this plays out.
March, April, May: The 90 day outlook does not give much to grab onto. Above average temperatures from the Desert Southwest then all the way up the east coast with below average temperatures over the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies. Precipitation projections do not favor above or below average rainfall. I guess they’re hedging their bets.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 12 mph afternoons and early evenings through Saturday and will be variable. Winds during the night and morning hours will be at or less than 7 mph with periods of near calm conditions
Due to a medical appointment, we will be out of the office this afternoon. The next report will be Thursday morning, March 16.
Rain Discussion: The following are rainfall amounts from the latest storm through 5:00am: Bakersfield .06, Delano .43, Porterville .81, Lemoore .86, Visalia .80, Fresno .56, Stratford .37, and Merced 1.43.
The last of the shower activity is moving out of the valley at this hour. The next chance of precipitation is Friday night but we’ll put that in the slight chance category. A higher risk of showers will begin Saturday night, continuing Sunday. For now Sunday night appears dry. Models for quite some time have been depicting the possibility of a major winter storm from Monday afternoon through Wednesday of next week. some models showing an atmospheric river of air spreading another round of subtropical moisture into central California. This could lead to another round of heavy rain, especially over the mountains. Models are even suggesting another storm about a week from Saturday.
Frost Discussion. All locations will be above freezing.
Actual humidity values for Porterville 100%/92%, Delano 94%86%. Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 50. Kern: Low to mid 50s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .59, Parlier, .51, Arvin 60, Porterville .56, Delano .61 Soil temperatures: Stratford 50, Parlier 51, Arvin 53, Porterville 49, Delano 52 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 67/44 Record Temperatures: 86/30
Heating Degree Days This Season. 2198. +111 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 15.49, Monthly 2.01
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 7.43, Monthly: .67
Average Temperature This Month 48.7 -6.3 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Parlier 1315, Arvin 1120, Belridge 1212, Shafter 1238, Stratford 1285, Delano 1281, Porterville 1254 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 7:14, sunset, 7:03. Hours of daylight, 11:47
Yesterday’s Weather: H L R
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 70 / 49 / 0.23 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DHM / 70 / 48 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 71 / 50 / 0.36 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DHM / 72 / 47 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 73 / 47 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 72 / 52 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 71 / 49 / T /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / M / M /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 72 / 47 / T /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1649 / 71 / 54 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 71 / 51 / 0.00 /
Central CA. Rainfall: Seas. % L.Y. % Ave. S.Ave
STOCKTON 0.52 19.53 189 8.21 79 10.35 13.45
MODESTO 0.42 16.60 179 8.17 88 9.26 12.27
MERCED 0.55 16.65 189 5.88 67 8.79 11.80
MADERA 0.59 8.88 111 1.58 20 7.97 10.79
FRESNO 0.88 15.49 195 5.43 68 7.95 10.99
HANFORD 1.06 12.07 203 5.29 89 5.94 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.48 7.42 159 4.35 93 4.66 6.36
BISHOP 1.98 12.20 342 4.50 126 3.57 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP M 0.93 62 M M 1.49 2.20
SALINAS 1.42 12.40 127 6.26 64 9.78 12.58
PASO ROBLES 1.04 17.16 180 7.37 77 9.52 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.72 19.33 189 6.35 62 10.21 13.32
Next report: March 16 am
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.