March 16, 2023 am
Through Saturday night, our weather will be peaceful under a weak ridge of upper level high pressure. Afternoon highs will be very pleasant as they will push 70 by Saturday afternoon. There are more challenges on the weather horizon, however. Two more low pressure systems will move through. One is very weak while the second is a strong storm with the potential for having an atmospheric river involved. The first system will move through Sunday and Sunday night. Currently, it appears no more than .10 will be measured on the valley floor. the second storm is very dynamic and will begin to spread precipitation over central California Monday afternoon. Even though this storm will not be as warm as previous ones, snow levels will start out at 7,000 feet. Computer generated rainfall estimates are again impressive with possibly one to two inches on the valley floor. the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada will pick up another 3 to 6 inches of rain, meaning several feet of new snow up high. This system will finally move eastward sometime late Wednesday with dry weather returning Thursday. A weaker system is expected to move in behind this storm on Friday, but apparently it will mainly affect northern California.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Saturday. Increasing clouds Saturday night. A chance of light showers Sunday and Sunday night. Increasing cloudiness again Monday morning. Periods of rain Monday afternoon through Wednesday, possibly locally heavy at times. Partly cloudy Wednesday night and Thursday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 65/40/67/42/70 | Reedley 66/40/68/43/71 | Dinuba 64/39/66/43/70 |
| Porterville 66/39/67/43/70 | Lindsay 65/39/68/42/71 | Delano 64/43/67/44/70 |
| Bakersfield 65/46/67/48/71 | Taft 65/48/66/50/70 | Arvin 66/44/68/46/72 |
| Lamont 67/45/68/46/72 | Pixley 65/40/67/43/70 | Tulare 64/38/66/42/69 |
| Woodlake 66/39/68/43/70 | Hanford 67/42/68/43/71 | Orosi 65/38/67/42/70 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Sunday
Light showers 50/70 |
Monday
PM rain 51/67 |
Tuesday
Periods of rain 49/64 |
Wednesday
Showers likely 39/61 |
Thursday
Partly cloudy 37/59 |
Two Week Outlook: March 22 through March 28 This model continues to indicate a persistent westerly flow into California from time to time. This pattern will favor above average precipitation and near average precipitation.
March: Above average temperatures will be confined from mainly New Mexico east. Below average temperatures will cover much of the western US, including California. Precipitation projections indicate fairly seasonal rainfall, not favoring above or below average rainfall. Let’s see how this plays out.
March, April, May: The 90 day outlook does not give much to grab onto. Above average temperatures from the Desert Southwest then all the way up the east coast with below average temperatures over the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies. Precipitation projections do not favor above or below average rainfall. I guess they’re hedging their bets.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 12 mph afternoons and early evenings through Sunday and will be variable. Winds during the night and morning hours will be at or less than 7 mph with periods of near calm conditions
Rain Discussion: Well, at least we get a few days to dry out as no rain will reach the valley floor through Saturday night. The first of two Pacific storms will arrive Sunday and Sunday night. This is a very anemic looking system and most locations will record less than .10. Storm number two will arrive Monday afternoon. It looks to be another behemoth. It will have excellent jet stream support, leading to another atmospheric river of air. Just exactly where this river will move on shore will determine rainfall amounts. Currently, computer generated estimates have much of the central and east valley in the one to two inch plus rang with the west side and Kern County receiving somewhat less. considering many locations are at 200% of rainfall average so far, I can only say “what drought?” Medium range models beyond Wednesday show period impulses moving in from time to time.
Frost Discussion. All locations will be above freezing.
Actual humidity values for Porterville 100%/72%, Delano 96%55%. Mid afternoon dew points: Mid to upper 40s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .62, Parlier, .55, Arvin 44, Porterville .54, Delano .62 Soil temperatures: Stratford 53, Parlier 56, Arvin 57, Porterville 53, Delano 57 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 68/45 Record Temperatures: 88/33
Heating Degree Days This Season. 2037 +52 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 16.55, Monthly 3.07
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 8.84, Monthly: 2.08
Average Temperature This Month 47.7 -3.2 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Parlier 1306, Arvin 1115, Belridge 1204, Shafter 1230, Stratford 1277, Delano 1273, Porterville 1245 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 7:07, sunset, 7:08. hours of daylight, 11:58
Yesterday’s Weather: H L R
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 58 / 44 / 1.02 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DHM / 63 / 51 / 0.33 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 61 / 48 / 0.14 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DHM / 59 / 45 / 0.03 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 61 / 48 / 0.06 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 61 / 52 / 0.31 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 62 / 51 / 0.56 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / M / M /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 62 / 52 / 0.77 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1649 / 55 / M / M /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 58 / 42 / 0.00 /
Central CA. Rainfall:
STOCKTON 0.00 21.04 197 8.35 78 10.68 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 17.10 179 8.23 86 9.56 12.27
MERCED 0.01 18.58 204 5.91 65 9.09 11.80
MADERA 0.03 8.95 108 1.58 19 8.30 10.79
FRESNO 0.14 16.55 200 5.43 66 8.28 10.99
HANFORD 0.01 12.08 195 5.29 85 6.19 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.94 8.84 182 4.35 89 4.87 6.36
BISHOP 0.02 13.17 359 4.50 123 3.67 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.96 63 M M 1.53 2.20
SALINAS T 12.50 123 6.26 62 10.14 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.02 18.48 185 7.37 74 9.97 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.08 21.04 197 6.35 60 10.67 13.32
Next report: March 16 pm
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.