March 17, 2023 pm
Temperatures at midday are running generally 3 to 4 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. Central California remains under the influence of weak upper level high pressure. We have roughly 36 hours of dry, tranquil weather before the chance of light showers increases Sunday. A weak southerly surface flow will aid in warming temperatures even more on Saturday, resulting in widespread low to mid 70s. the first of two Pacific storms will arrive Sunday. This system remains fragmented looking with no real upper air support. Still, light showers will spread over the valley Sunday, continuing Sunday night. Precipitation amounts will be light with most locations recording less than .15 with most recording .10 or less. the second storm is yet another powerful storm event for central California. We’ve heard a lot about atmospheric rivers this winter. From Monday night through Wednesday, another atmospheric river will set up, affecting mostly central and southern California. Even though this system packs plenty of subtropical moisture, latest model information indicates snow levels will be somewhat lower with this system with levels starting out at 7,000 to 8,000 feet, lowering to 5,000 to 6,000 feet by Tuesday. Precipitation estimates are roughly the same on latest models with 3 to 6 inches of rain along the southern Sierra Nevada above 4,000 feet and 2 to 4 inches over the foothill regions. Valley rainfall estimates are in the rainfall section below. The center of circulation of the parent low will be in close proximity Wednesday. The pool of colder and unstable air will settle in overhead resulting in numerous showers with possible isolated thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening.. the low will shift eastward Wednesday night with dry weather Thursday and Friday. There will be at least a minimal chance of light showers Friday night and Saturday as the bottom side of a trough of low pressure from the Gulf of Alaska moves through.
Forecast: Becoming partly cloudy tonight through Saturday. Increasing cloudiness Saturday night. A chance of light showers Sunday and Sunday night. A chance of showers Monday morning, becoming likely in the afternoon. Rain at times Monday night through Tuesday night, locally heavy at times. Showers Wednesday with a chance of isolated thunderstorms. A chance of showers Wednesday night. Partly cloudy Thursday through Friday. Increasing cloudiness Friday night.
Temperatures:
| Madera 41/72/53/66 | Reedley 41/73/53/67 | Dinuba 40/71/52/65 |
| Porterville 41/73/53/67 | Lindsay 40/73/51/66 | Delano 42/74/54/68 |
| Bakersfield 47/74/55/68 | Taft 50/72/55/67 | Arvin 44/74/53/68 |
| Lamont 43/74/54/69 | Pixley 41/72/52/66 | Tulare 40/72/52/66 |
| Woodlake 41/72/53/65 | Hanford 43/73/53/66 | Orosi 41/72/52/67 |
Wind Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 12 mph afternoons and early evenings through Sunday and will be variable. Winds during the night and morning hours will be at or less than 7 mph with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Monday will be out of the southeast at 5 to 15 mph, increasing to 10 to 20 mph later Monday night through Tuesday.
Rain: Dry weather will continue through Saturday night. The first of two systems will move inland Sunday with light, scattered showers Sunday and Sunday night. Rainfall from this first event will be generally less than .15 with most locations recording less than .10. it’s possible no measurable rain may fall in the south valley. Another strong winter storm, the latest of many, will begin sometime Monday with the full thrust of this system moving through late Monday night through Tuesday night. Showers will last through Wednesday with a chance of isolated thunderstorms Wednesday through Wednesday evening. Rainfall amounts from Monday through Wednesday evening still look at between 1.25 and 1.75 along the east side of the valley north of Kern County. The latest blended model rainfall estimate for Porterville is 1.52. Models show a distinct rain shadow over the west side and in Kern County with between .50 and .75 along the west side of Fresno and Kings Counties. The valley portion of Kern County may record .50 or less. we’ll dry out later Wednesday night, continuing through Friday. Models are less optimistic about a third system Friday night and Saturday with only a chance of light showers.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing for at least the next several days.
Next report: March 18 morning
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.