March 17, 2023 am
quiet weather and pleasant afternoon highs will continue through Saturday night. Temperatures will be near average today and a bit above average Saturday as a southerly surface flow develops ahead of two weather systems: one weak and one strong. The air aloft remains fairly cool. The freezing level above Vandenburg this morning is at 8,500 feet and is 7,000 feet above Oakland. The winds aloft over the eastern Pacific remain out of the west. These westerlies will carry the first storm through California Sunday and Sunday night with only light showers. Rainfall amounts will likely not exceed .10 in most locations. Models are still having difficulty nailing down the details of storm number 2 which will arrive late Monday and continue through Wednesday. Models show an atmospheric river developing with the strongest energy moving into southern California. The center of the low will track through central California Wednesday with numerous showers and a chance of thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. Rainfall amounts from Monday afternoon through Wednesday night will be significant. Models are stll indicating 3 to 6 inches of ran along the southern Sierra Nevada and 2 to 4 inches along the lower foothills. Valley rain amounts are discussed in the rainfall discussion below. Storm number 3 will arrive Friday night and Saturday. This system will have a somewhat different flavor as it’s origins are from the Gulf of Alaska. It’s still a week out, but for now it appears precipitation amounts will be quite lighter with lower snow levels.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies today. Partly cloudy tonight and Saturday. Increasing cloudiness Saturday night. Light showers Sunday and Sunday night. Increasing clouds Monday morning. A chance of rain Monday afternoon. Rain at times Monday night through Tuesday night, locally heavy at times. Showers Wednesday with a chance of thunderstorms. A chance of showers Wednesday night. Partly cloudy Thursday. Increasing cloudiness Thursday night. A chance of showers Friday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 67/43/72/52/69 | Reedley 68/43/72/51/66 | Dinuba 67/43/71/52/65 |
| Porterville 68/43/73/53/66 | Lindsay 67/42/71/52/66 | Delano 68/44/71/53/67 |
| Bakersfield 67/47/73/53/68 | Taft 67/50/71//54/68 | Arvin 69/44/73/53/66 |
| Lamont 69/45/74/53/65 | Pixley 67/43/71/50/66 | Tulare 66/42/71/51/65 |
| Woodlake 67/42/71/51/66 | Hanford 67/43/72/52/67 | Orosi 66/41/71/51/75 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Monday
PM rain 52/67 |
Tuesday
Rain at times 48/62 |
Wednesday
Showers/tstorms 42/59 |
Thursday
Partly cloudy 36/57 |
Friday
Increasing clouds 38/59 |
Two Week Outlook: March 24 through March 30 This model continues to indicate a persistent westerly flow into California from time to time. This pattern will favor above average precipitation and near average precipitation.
March: Above average temperatures will be confined from mainly New Mexico east. Below average temperatures will cover much of the western US, including California. Precipitation projections indicate fairly seasonal rainfall, not favoring above or below average rainfall. Let’s see how this plays out.
March, April, May: The 90 day outlook does not give much to grab onto. Above average temperatures from the Desert Southwest then all the way up the east coast with below average temperatures over the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies. Precipitation projections do not favor above or below average rainfall. I guess they’re hedging their bets.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 12 mph afternoons and early evenings through Sunday and will be variable. Winds during the night and morning hours will be at or less than 7 mph with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Monday will be out of the southeast at 8 to 15 mph with stronger gusts.
Rain Discussion: No rain is expected before Sunday morning. The first of two Pacific storms will arrive Sunday morning, producing light showers through Sunday night. Rainfall amounts from this first event are expected to be no more than .15 with most locations picking up less than .10. storm number 2 promises to be a two and a half day event. Models have been inconsistent on the timing and strength of this system. This system does have the necessary ingredients to produce another major winter storm for California. It appears the atmospheric river will be aimed at southern California for the most part however, that is by no means set in concrete. Precipitation amounts vary widely on computer data. For Porterville, from Monday through Wednesday evening, blended model info indicated 1.56. If you wring out the models like an old, wet towel, generally between 1 and 1.50 inches are estimated for the east side generally east of Highway 99. The west side of that highway is projected to pick up between 50 and 1.50 and in Kern County, expectations are for less than .50. Rainfall estimates are always shaky at best, but considering models point the atmospheric river at southern California, well, it really makes it a shaky forecast. Thunderstorms are possible Wednesday as the colder sector of the storm arrives. Right now, Thursday and Thursday night appear dry with a much weaker system expected on Friday. This is a colder storm and will be carrying much less water.
Frost Discussion. All locations will be above freezing.
Actual humidity values for Porterville 100%/64%, Delano 98%58%. Mid afternoon dew points: Mid to upper 40s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .69, Parlier, .62, Arvin 43, Porterville .57, Delano .63 Soil temperatures: Stratford 53, Parlier 57, Arvin 57, Porterville 54, Delano 58 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 68/45 Record Temperatures: 90/31
Heating Degree Days This Season. 2210 +70 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 16.55, Monthly 3.07
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 8.84, Monthly: 2.08
Average Temperature This Month 49.0 -6.5 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Parlier 1306, Arvin 1115, Belridge 1204, Shafter 1230, Stratford 1277, Delano 1273, Porterville 1245 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 7:06, sunset, 7:09. hours of daylight, 12.01
Yesterday’s Weather: H L R
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 64 / 41 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 66 / 57 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 66 / 45 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 65 / 56 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 66 / 38 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 63 / 47 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 63 / 42 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / M / M /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 64 / 42 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1652 / 61 / 47 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 65 / 43 / 0.00 /
Central CA. Rainfall:
STOCKTON 0.00 21.04 196 8.35 78 10.74 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 17.10 178 8.23 86 9.62 12.27
MERCED 0.00 18.58 203 5.91 65 9.15 11.80
MADERA 0.00 8.92 107 1.58 19 8.37 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 16.55 198 5.43 65 8.35 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 12.07 194 5.29 85 6.23 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 8.84 180 4.35 89 4.90 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 13.17 357 4.50 122 3.69 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.96 62 M M 1.54 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 12.50 122 6.26 61 10.21 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 18.48 184 7.37 73 10.05 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 21.04 196 6.35 59 10.75 13.32
Next report: March 17 pm
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.