March 18, 2023 pm
High clouds are already increasing ahead of the next weather system lurking off the California coast. This trough will move inland Sunday and Sunday night. Latest model projections with this system are a little stronger with rainfall totals on the valley floor possibly adding up to .25 in some places. Models are also having a rough time in nailing down the specifics for storm number two. A trend began about 48 hours ago in showing the best energy from this storm moving into southern California. That trend continues this afternoon, meaning many locations in central California may not pick up as much precipitation as previously indicated. The strongest part of the storm will move through late Tuesday through Wednesday as the center of circulation moves through central and southern California. As a pool of cool, unsettled air begins to reside in the area, numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms can be expected Wednesday. There are models showing a chance of showers all the way into Thursday before the back side of this system finally shifts eastward by midday Thursday. A new weather pattern will begin Friday and last through the weekend. The mild, lower latitude storms will be replaced by a northwesterly flow, allowing systems to move out of the Gulf of Alaska and into the western US. the first of these colder systems will arrive over the weekend with showers and much lower snow levels.. models vary for conditions after the weekend, but by and large, it looks like a periodic active period will continue.
Forecast: Increasing cloudiness tonight. Showers becoming likely Sunday and Sunday night. A chance of showers Monday. showers becoming likely late Monday night through Tuesday night. Showers Wednesday and Wednesday night with a chance of isolated thunderstorms. Partly cloudy Thursday through Friday. Increasing cloudiness Friday night with a chance of shower Saturday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 52/65/51/62 | Reedley 54/66/50/62 | Dinuba 53/65/49/62 |
| Porterville 53/66/51/61 | Lindsay 52/65/50/62 | Delano 53/67/50/61 |
| Bakersfield 56/68/52/62 | Taft 55/68/52/60 | Arvin 53/67/51/62 |
| Lamont 54/67/51/62 | Pixley 51/65/49/62 | Tulare 51/64/49/62 |
| Woodlake 52/65/50/62 | Hanford 53/65/50/62 | Orosi 51/65/49/61 |
Wind Discussion: Winds will be generally variable to around 12 mph through Sunday night with locally stronger gusts. Winds Monday will be mainly out of the southeast at 5 to 15 mph. Winds Tuesday will increase out of the southeast at 10 to 20 mph. Gusts to near 35 mph are possible, especially along the west side and near t he base of the Tehachapi Mountains.
Rain: Mainly light showers will spread over the valley Sunday through Sunday night. Models show this system to be somewhat better organized than previous models had indicated. It’s possible a few locations could pick up as much as .25. the second system has models confused as they can’t nail down specifics. It appears the bulk of the precipitation from this event will move through later Tuesday through Wednesday. The center of circulation from this storm will be in close proximity Tuesday and Wednesday with a pool of cold, unstable air which will trigger numerous showers and a chance at thunderstorms. Rainfall amounts on the valley floor for Monday through Wednesday evening should range from .75 to 1.25 on the east side north of Kern County and generally 50 to 1.00 along the west side of Fresno County and much of Kings County. A great deal of the energy from this system will move through southern California with Kern County on the northern boundary. So, it’s possible the valley portion of Kern County could pick up between .50 to .75 with locally move. Dry weather will return Thursday and will continue through Friday night with the next chance of showers arriving Saturday.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing for at least the next several days.
Next report: March 19 morning
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.