March 18, 2023 am
Satellite imagery clearly shows the leading edge of two distinct weather systems. The first feature is quite weak, but even so, it will spread light showers down the valley Sunday and Sunday night with no more than a tenth or two of precipitation, if that. Storm number two will move on shore almost in pieces with various blocks of energy moving west to east into California over almost a three day period. As each block of energy moves on shore, it will be accompanied by heavy amounts of precipitation, especially over the southern half of the state. Precipitation estimates for this system are still quite significant with as much as 3 to 6 inches of additional rainfall from Monday through Wednesday over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada and 2 to 4 inches over the foothill regions. Adding to the fact is this is the umpteenth time this winter season the energy is flowing west to east, moving perpendicular to the Sierra Nevada. The center of circulation of the low will move through Wednesday with numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms. This system will finally move into the Great Basin and Desert Southwest Thursday for a drying trend. Models are still showing a weaker and colder system moving in Friday for a chance of showers and snow at lower levels. The pattern is almost reverting back to the one that resulted in heavy lower elevation snow early in the month of February.
Forecast: Mostly clear today. Increasing cloudiness tonight. Mostly cloudy Sunday with light showers. Periods of rain Monday through Tuesday night, locally heavy at times. Showers Wednesday with a chance of isolated thunderstorms. Partly cloudy Thursday and Thursday night. A chance of showers Friday and Saturday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 72/53/65/7/62 | Reedley 73/53/66/50/62 | Dinuba 72/53/65/51/61 |
| Porterville 74/54/66/52/61 | Lindsay 73/54/67/52/61 | Delano 75/55/67/52/61 |
| Bakersfield 74/56/67/53/61 | Taft 74/54/66/52/62 | Arvin 75/55/67/52/61 |
| Lamont 74/56/66/53/61 | Pixley 71/52/65/49/62 | Tulare 71/55/71/55/61 |
| Woodlake 73/53/65/51/62 | Hanford 73/53/65/53/71 | Orosi 72/52/66/50/62 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Tuesday
Rain likely 47/62 |
Wednesday
Showers/tstorms 42/58 |
Thursday
Partly cloudy 42/58 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 39/61 |
Saturday
Partly cloudy 38/61 |
Two Week Outlook: March 24 through March 30 This model continues to indicate a persistent westerly flow into California from time to time. This pattern will favor above average precipitation and near average precipitation.
March: Above average temperatures will be confined from mainly New Mexico east. Below average temperatures will cover much of the western US, including California. Precipitation projections indicate fairly seasonal rainfall, not favoring above or below average rainfall. Let’s see how this plays out.
March, April, May: The 90 day outlook does not give much to grab onto. Above average temperatures from the Desert Southwest then all the way up the east coast with below average temperatures over the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies. Precipitation projections do not favor above or below average rainfall. I guess they’re hedging their bets.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be variable through tonight and generally less than 12 mph. Winds Sunday will be out of the southeast at 5 to 12 mph, increasing to 10 to 20 mph with stronger gusts Monday through Tuesday.
Rain Discussion: Today will be the most pleasant day we’ll see for a while with generally clear skies and temperatures in th e 70s. light showers will overspread the valley Sunday. Most locations will pick up no more than a tenth of an inch Sunday and Sunday night. A much stronger storm, which is once again loaded with subtropical moisture, will begin to spread precipitation over the valley Monday. the strongest part of this event will occur late Monday night through Tuesday night with widespread precipitation which will be locally heavy at times. It still appears between one and two inches of rain is likely along the east side of the valley north of Kern County. The jet stream will move from west to east right across central California, resulting in a rain shadow along the west side and in Kern County. The western side of Fresno and Kings Counties could measure between three quarters and one and a quarter inches of rain. The rain shadow will be most pronounced in Kern County where a half inch or less will likely be measured. Thunderstorms will be possible so locally more can be expected in those areas. Dry weather will return Wednesday night through Friday. A much colder system will arrive Friday night and Saturday for generally light showers. This system originated in the Gulf of Alaska and will have much lower snow levels.
Frost Discussion. All locations will be above freezing.
Actual humidity values for Porterville MM%/MM%, Delano 95%52%. Mid afternoon dew points: Mid to upper 40s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .79, Parlier, .75, Arvin 53, Porterville .68, Delano .76 Soil temperatures: Stratford 54, Parlier 57, Arvin 58, Porterville 55, Delano 59 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 68/45 Record Temperatures: 87/30
Heating Degree Days This Season. 2217 +69 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 16.55, Monthly 3.07
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 8.84, Monthly: 2.08
Average Temperature This Month 49.7 -5.9 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Parlier 1306, Arvin 1115, Belridge 1204, Shafter 1230, Stratford 1277, Delano 1273, Porterville 1245 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 7:04, sunset, 7:10. hours of daylight, 12.03
Yesterday’s Weather: H L R
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 69 / 41 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 68 / 41 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 70 / 48 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 71 / 44 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 70 / 42 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 69 / 45 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 69 / 45 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 69 / 41 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1651 / 65 / 47 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 67 / 43 / 0.00 /
Central CA. Rainfall:
STOCKTON 0.00 21.04 196 8.35 78 10.74 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 17.10 178 8.23 86 9.62 12.27
MERCED 0.00 18.58 203 5.91 65 9.15 11.80
MADERA 0.00 8.92 107 1.58 19 8.37 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 16.55 198 5.43 65 8.35 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 12.07 194 5.29 85 6.23 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 8.84 180 4.35 89 4.90 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 13.17 357 4.50 122 3.69 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.96 62 M M 1.54 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 12.50 122 6.26 61 10.21 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 18.48 184 7.37 73 10.05 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 21.04 196 6.35 59 10.75 13.32
Next report: March 18 pm
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.