March 19, 2023 am
Generally light rain is widespread throughout central California at this hour. This is the first of two weather systems that will affect the valley over the next 72 hours. Models show somewhat of a gap between these two systems Monday before the next weather system approaches the coast Tuesday morning. This system will also have a wind component. A 988 millibar surface low will be centered just west of Sa Francisco by midday Tuesday. Like its predecessor, significant differences in barometric pressure will set up between off shore northern California and southern California. Gusty southeast winds will develop up the valley late Monday night and Tuesday. Strong winds may affect the south valley where winds could gust to 50 mph. the atmospheric river projected for this system does not appear to be as pronounced and will mainly be aimed at southern California. Even so, heavy rain will fall up and down the Sierra Nevada with another round of significant rain on the valley floor, especially Tuesday into Wednesday morning. The storm will track into the interior west Thursday for a brief drying trend. A drying trend will continue through Friday. The next storm, this time from the Gulf of Alaska will affect the northern portion of the state, possibly making down as far south as Kern County early next week. an active pattern will continue through the middle of next week as storms role out of the Gulf of Alaska and into California.
Forecast: Showers through tonight. A chance of showers Monday and Monday night. Rain likely Tuesday through Wednesday, locally heavy at times with a chance of afternoon thunderstorms. A chance of showers Wednesday night. Partly cloudy Thursday and Thursday night. A chance of light showers Friday and Friday night. Partly cloudy Saturday. A chance of showers again by late Sunday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 62/49/62/46/56 | Reedley 63/49/63/46/55 | Dinuba 61/49/63/45/56 |
| Porterville 64/41/62/53/57 | Lindsay 63/48/64/45/56 | Delano 64/52/63/49/57 |
| Bakersfield 65/52/62/50/57 | Taft 64/51/61/48/55 | Arvin 65/51/62/50/57 |
| Lamont 64/51/62/49/58 | Pixley 63/48/62/46/5t | Tulare 61/48/62/46/56 |
| Woodlake 61/48/62/46/55 | Hanford 62/50/62/40/56 | Orosi 62/49/62/47/56 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Wednesday
Rain likely 40/56 |
Thursday
Partly cloudy 39/58 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 38/59 |
Saturday
Increasing clouds 34/59 |
Sunday
Chance of showers 34/58 |
Two Week Outlook: March 24 through March 30 This model continues to indicate a persistent westerly flow into California from time to time. This pattern will favor above average precipitation and near average precipitation.
March: Above average temperatures will be confined from mainly New Mexico east. Below average temperatures will cover much of the western US, including California. Precipitation projections indicate fairly seasonal rainfall, not favoring above or below average rainfall. Let’s see how this plays out.
March, April, May: The 90 day outlook does not give much to grab onto. Above average temperatures from the Desert Southwest then all the way up the east coast with below average temperatures over the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies. Precipitation projections do not favor above or below average rainfall. I guess they’re hedging their bets.
Wind Discussion: winds today will be mainly out of the southeast at 5 to 12 mph. Winds Monday will continue out of the southeast at 5 to 12 mph, increasing ot 10 to 20 mph Monday night and 15 to 20 mph Tuesday. Local gusts to 50 mph will be possible near the base of the Tehachapi mountains Monday night, decreasing Tuesday morning. Winds Wednesday will be out of the northwest at 5 to 12 mph.
Rain Discussion: Light rain is widespread throughout the valley this morning. Models yesterday started to pick up on more energy in the upper atmosphere to raise the stakes on this storm just a bit. Before yesterday, it had appeared no more than .10 would be measured. now, best estimates are for a quarter to a third of an inch. Light showers well continue well into Sunday night then we will enjoy somewhat of a break Monday. models still show the bulk of the energy from storm number 2 moving into southern California, however this will still be a significant precipitation event. Generally speaking, the east side of the valley north of Kern County will pick up another three quarters of an inch to as much as an inch and a quarter between Monday and Wednesday. A half to three quarters of an inch is possible along the west side and possibly as much as a half inch along the valley portion of Kern County. Dry weather will begin Thursday, continuing Friday we may see another system during the second half of next weekend. Both the ten day and two week outlooks still favor active weather for central California.
Frost Discussion. We may see some low to mid 30s again this upcoming weekend after a bit of a hiatus. The flow pattern will become out of the northwest, pumping cold air back into central califoria. Nno serious freeze is seen at this time.
Actual humidity values for Porterville MM%/MM%, Delano 95%52%. Mid afternoon dew points: Mid to upper 40s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .80, Parlier, .77, Arvin 62, Porterville .59, Delano .95 Soil temperatures: Stratford 54, Parlier 58, Arvin 58, Porterville 55, Delano 58 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 68/46 Record Temperatures: 86/32
Heating Degree Days This Season. 2225 +69 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 16.55, Monthly 3.07
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 8.84, Monthly: 2.08
Average Temperature This Month 50.2 -5.4 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Parlier 1306, Arvin 1115, Belridge 1204, Shafter 1230, Stratford 1277, Delano 1273, Porterville 1245 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 7:03, sunset, 7:11. hours of daylight, 12.06
Yesterday’s Weather: H L R
CE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 68 / 42 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 69 / 42 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 70 / 49 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 71 / 42 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 70 / 43 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 74 / 44 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 70 / 45 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 72 / 45 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1650 / 71 / 49 / 0.00 /
Central CA. Rainfall:
STOCKTON 0.00 21.04 194 8.35 77 10.86 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 17.10 176 8.23 85 9.73 12.27
MERCED 0.00 18.58 201 5.91 64 9.25 11.80
MADERA 0.00 8.92 105 1.58 19 8.48 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 16.55 195 5.43 64 8.47 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 12.86 203 5.29 84 6.32 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 8.84 178 4.35 87 4.98 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 13.17 354 4.50 121 3.72 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 0.96 62 M M 1.55 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 12.50 121 6.26 61 10.34 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 18.48 181 7.37 72 10.21 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 21.04 193 6.35 58 10.92 13.32
Next report: March 20 am
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.