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  • May 8, 2024 report May 8, 2024 Summary  High pressure aloft is  located 500 miles off the northern California coast. Low pressure is centered over Wyoming and the Dakotas…
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  • May 4, 2024 report May 4, 2024 Summary  A low pressure center is off the coast of the Pacific Northwest this morning. This low will move southwestward into northern…
  • May 2, 2024 report May 2, 2024 Summary  upper level high pressure is upwelling ahead of a low pressure system located in the northeast Pacific. This will drive temperatures…
Forecast

March 22, 2023 report

March 22, 20me 23 am

Showers continue over mainly the northern half of the valley this morning. The center of circulation of the latest low pressure system is parked just west of San Francisco this and will move southeastward, accompanied by more showers through the evening hours. As the daytime heating process gets revved up this afternoon,, isolated thunderstorms will no doubt develop as warm currents of air interact with cold air aloft. The latest freezing level over Vandenburg AFB is 4,800 feet and over Oakland 3,800 feet, so any thunderstorm activity will be accompanied by small hail. The low will move into Nevada and Arizona Thursday with just a few lingering showers over the Sierra Nevada. The next Pacific storm looks weak and will move through central California Saturday with a chance of showers over the Sierra Nevada. For now, it appears the valley will remain dry. Models do place a well developed low pressure system just off the northern California coast Tuesday. This one appears to have strong dynamics and presents yet another chance at a major winter storm coming up Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. This parade of storms just seems to  want to go on and on as both the 10 day and two week models indicates an open storm door for any system that comes knocking at the door.

 

Forecast: Showers through this evening with a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. A slight chance of showers after midnight. Partly cloudy Thursday. Mostly clear Thursday night through Friday night. Partly cloudy Saturday through Sunday. Mostly clear Sunday night and Monday. increasing clouds Monday night leading to the likelihood of rain Tuesday and Wednesday.

 

Temperatures:

Madera 59/41/59/39//58 Reedley 58/41/61/40/61 Dinuba 59/39/59/40/58
Porterville 61/43/58/42/56 Lindsay 60/42/59/42/58 Delano 61/43/58/44/58
Bakersfield 61/45/58/44/58 Taft 58/46/59/43/55 Arvin 61/44/58/44/58
Lamont 58/42/61/43/61 Pixley 59/42/59/40/58 Tulare 57/41/61/41/60
Woodlake  59/41/59/41/61 Hanford 58/42/60/41/60 Orosi 58/40/59/41/59

 

Seven Day Forecast

Saturday

Partly cloudy

39/56

Sunday

Partly cloudy

35/54

Monday

Increasing clouds

37/58

Tuesday

Rain likely

42/62

Wednesday

Rain likely

44/58

 

Two Week Outlook:  March 29 through April 4:  This model continues to indicate a persistent westerly flow into California from time to time. This pattern will favor above average precipitation and near average precipitation.

 

March:  Above average temperatures will be confined from mainly New Mexico east. Below average temperatures will cover much of the western US, including California. Precipitation projections indicate fairly seasonal rainfall, not favoring above or below average rainfall. Let’s see how this plays out.

 

March, April, May:  The 90 day outlook does not give much to grab onto. Above average temperatures from the Desert Southwest then all the way up the east coast with below average temperatures over the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies. Precipitation projections do not favor above or below average rainfall. I guess they’re hedging their bets.

 

Wind Discussion: winds today will be mainly out of the southeast at 8 to 15 mph. Winds tonight and Thursday will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 12 mph. Winds Thursday night through Saturday will be mainly less than 12 mph with periods of near calm conditions.

 

Rain Discussion: showers will continue today and well into the evening hours. Amounts will vary due to the showery nature of the precipitation, ranging from a tenth or two to as much as a third of an inch. Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening. Rainfall amounts in the vicinity of thunderstorms could eclipse one-half inch. The active weather will end tonight and it now looks like we’ll be dry Friday through Monday. a system will move through Saturday, but showers should be confined to the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada. Yet another significant storm is on the horizon. A strong low appears on models off the California coast Tuesday, resulting in precipitation both Tuesday and Wednesday. Trying to discern amounts this far out is dicey, but one half inch totals are not out of the realm

 

Frost Discussion.  Expect above freezing conditions for at least the next 7 to 10 days.

 

Actual humidity values for Porterville MM%/MM%, Delano  95%52%.  Mid afternoon dew points: Mid to upper 40s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s.

ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .79, Parlier, .77, Arvin 68, Porterville .NA, Delano .90  Soil temperatures: Stratford 55, Parlier 58, Arvin 58, Porterville NA, Delano 59 *=data missing.

Average Temperatures: 69/46  Record Temperatures: 83/30

Heating Degree Days This Season.  2238 +66 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno  17.08, Monthly  3.60

Precipitation for Bakersfield:  Season: 9.20, Monthly:  2.44

Average Temperature This Month 51.3-4.5 Taken NWS Hanford.

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28:  Parlier 1306,  Arvin 1115, Belridge 1204, Shafter 1230, Stratford 1277,  Delano 1273,  Porterville  1245  courtesy UC Davis

Sunrise 6:58, sunset, 7:13.  hours of daylight, 12.13

 

Yesterday’s Weather:                                         H        L         R

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1700 /  61 /  48 / 0.28 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  60 /  50 / 0.27 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  63 /  48 / 0.33 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  63 /  50 / 0.54 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  61 /  50 / 0.50 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1700 /  66 /  51 / 0.11 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  61 /  50 / 0.39 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  63 /  48 / 0.35 /

Central CA. Rainfall:                                                                             

STOCKTON                      0.29   21.51   195    8.36    76    11.02    13.45

MODESTO                       0.33   17.60   178    8.23    83     9.88    12.27

MERCED                        0.28   19.00   202    6.31    67     9.40    11.80

MADERA                        0.28    9.36   108    1.64    19     8.65    10.79

FRESNO                        0.34   17.07   198    5.45    63     8.64    10.99

HANFORD                       0.54   13.55   210    5.30    82     6.45     8.13

BAKERSFIELD                   0.11    9.08   179    4.54    89     5.08     6.36

BISHOP                        0.42   13.62   362    4.50   120     3.76     4.84

DEATH VALLEY NP               0.00    0.96    61       M     M     1.57     2.20

SALINAS                       0.20   12.78   122    6.41    61    10.51    12.58

PASO ROBLES                   0.80   19.38   186    7.55    72    10.43    12.15

SANTA MARIA                   0.16   21.40   192    6.38    57    11.15    13.32

 

Next report: March 23 am

 

At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.