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Forecast

March 24, 2023 report

March 24, 2023 am

A much deserved few days of dry weather begins today and will continue through Monday as we now find ourselves on the western side of high pressure. This will maintain a northwest flow over California, keeping temperatures several degrees below average. A low pressure system  begins to show up  on models off the Oregon coast Sunday. It will rapidly intensify and move southward along the northern California coast Monday. by late Monday night, rain will have spread as far south as a Monterey/Merced line with precipitation spreading over the remainder of the valley Tuesday morning.. this system will be accompanied by gusty winds as pressure differences increase between the north coast of California and southern California Tuesday and Tuesday night. Even though precipitation totals will no doubt be significant, it doesn’t appear this system will be quite as strong as some we’ve had this winter. However, two to three inches of new rain will total up along the west facing side of the Sierra Nevada. Potential rainfall amounts for the valley are discussed below. Showers will last well into Wednesday evening as the low traverses the state. It will exit southern California later Wednesday. Models show the storm track advancing further north next weekend and into early next week for dry weather which should last into next weekend with the possible exception of the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada.

 

Forecast:Mostly clear skies through Monday. increasing cloudiness Monday night with a chance of rain as far south as Merced County after midnight. Rain spreading southward Tuesday morning. Rain at times Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. Showers Wednesday and Wednesday night, diminishing after midnight. A slight chance of a few showers Thursday morning, otherwise it will be partly cloud Thursday through Friday.

 

Temperatures:

Madera 58/34/57/33/59 Reedley 58/33/57/32/59 Dinuba 58/32/57/32/59
Porterville 56/33/56/32/58 Lindsay 56/32/56/31/58 Delano 57/34/58/33/59
Bakersfield 56/36/56/35/58 Taft 55/38/56/38/57 Arvin 57/35/58/34/61
Lamont 57/36/60/35/61 Pixley 57/33/57/33/59 Tulare 57/32/57/31/58
Woodlake 57/33/58/32/61 Hanford 58/35/60/33/61 Orosi 57/33/58/32/58

 

Seven Day Forecast

Monday

Increasing clouds

35/59

Tuesday

Rain likely

44/63

Wednesday

Showers likely

42/60

Thursday

AM showers

38/58

Friday

Partly cloudy

37/59

 

Two Week Outlook:  March 31 through April 6: For the first time in quite a spell, this model is not calling for above average precipitation. instead, the wording is “near average” with below average temperatures continuing

 

March:  Above average temperatures will be confined from mainly New Mexico east. Below average temperatures will cover much of the western US, including California. Precipitation projections indicate fairly seasonal rainfall, not favoring above or below average rainfall. Let’s see how this plays out.

 

March, April, May:  The 90 day outlook does not give much to grab onto. Above average temperatures from the Desert Southwest then all the way up the east coast with below average temperatures over the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies. Precipitation projections do not favor above or below average rainfall. I guess they’re hedging their bets.

 

Wind Discussion: Winds through early this evening will be mainly out of the northwest at 8 to 15 mph with locally stronger gusts. Winds tonight through Monday will be generally at or less than 12 mph with periods of near calm conditions, mainly during the night and morning hours. Winds Monday night will be out of the southeast at 8 to 15 mph, increasing to 15 to 25 mph Tuesday with stronger gusts.

 

Rain Discussion:  Dry weather will continue through Monday and through Monday night for the south valley. Rain from the next Pacific storm should reach a Monterey/Merced line by midnight Monday night,  spreading over the rest of the growing  area by Tuesday morning. Rain will continue at times Tuesday and Tuesday night with showers Wednesday and Wednesday night. Isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out Wednesday afternoon and evening. Showers will continue for a time Wednesday night,, possibly lingering into Thursday morning. Rainfall amounts in the eastern sector of the valley north of Kern County will generally range between one—half and one inch. One quarter to one-half is likely along the west side of the valley and in Kern County. Two to three inches of rain will likely be recorded over the Sierra Nevada with two to three feet of snow up high. Dry weather will return next Thursday and should continue through the following weekend.

 

Frost Discussion.  The current air mass is cold enough that the very coldest locations tonight and tomorrow night could drop to 29 to 30 degrees for short durations. Most locations will chill down to 31 to 36. Hillsides will remain above freezing.  Assuming cloud cover does not advance over the area ahead of the next storm system, low to mid 30s will be possible Monday morning as well. After Monday, rain should return for above freezing conditions which should hold for the remainder of next week.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

32

Porterville

32

Ivanhoe

31

Woodlake

33

Strathmore

32

McFarland

33

Ducor

Af

Tea Pot Dome

32

Lindsay

31

Exeter

31

Famoso

Af

Madera

Af

Belridge

31

Delano

Af

North Bakersfield

Af

Orosi

32

Orange Cove

Af

Lindcove

31

Lindcove Hillside

Af

Sanger River Bottom

29

Root creek

32

Venice Hill

32

Rosedale

Af

Jasmine

Af

Arvin

Af

Lamont

Af

Plainview

32

Mettler

Af

Edison

Af

Maricopa

Af

Holland Creek

32

Tivy Valley

af

Kite Road South

32

Kite Road North

Af

AF=Above Freezing

 

 

Actual humidity values for Porterville MM%/MM%, Delano  95%52%.  Mid afternoon dew points: Mid to upper 40s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s.

ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .68, Parlier, .65, Arvin 69, Porterville .NA, Delano .77  Soil temperatures: Stratford 55, Parlier 58, Arvin 58, Porterville NA, Delano 58 *=data missing.

Average Temperatures: 69/46  Record Temperatures: 90/34

Heating Degree Days This Season.  2272 +76 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno  17.09, Monthly  3.61

Precipitation for Bakersfield:  Season: 9.29, Monthly:  2.53

Average Temperature This Month 51.7-4.4 Taken NWS Hanford.

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28:  Parlier 1306,  Arvin 1115, Belridge 1204, Shafter 1230, Stratford 1277,  Delano 1273,  Porterville  1245  courtesy UC Davis

Sunrise 6:55, sunset, 7:15.  hours of daylight, 12.17

 

Yesterday’s Weather:                                         H        L         R

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1700 /  61 /  48 / 0.18 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1700 /  59 /  43 / 0.05 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1700 /  58 /  49 /    T /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1700 /  60 /  47 /    T /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1700 /  60 /  46 /    T /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1600 /  58 /  49 / 0.07 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1700 /  58 /  46 / 0.04 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DHM    /   M /   M /    M /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1700 /  59 /  46 / 0.16 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1651 /  59 /  51 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  59 /   M /    M /

Central CA. Rainfall:                                                                            

STOCKTON                         T   21.76   196    8.36    75    11.13    13.45

MODESTO                       0.23   18.21   182    8.23    82     9.98    12.27

MERCED                        0.18   19.21   202    6.31    66     9.50    11.80

MADERA                        0.05   10.17   116    1.64    19     8.76    10.79

FRESNO                           T   17.09   195    5.45    62     8.75    10.99

HANFORD                          T   13.72   210    5.30    81     6.54     8.13

BAKERSFIELD                   0.07    9.29   181    4.54    88     5.14     6.36

BISHOP                           T   13.62   359    4.50   119     3.79     4.84

DEATH VALLEY NP               0.00    1.05    66       M     M     1.58     2.20

SALINAS                          T   13.14   124    6.41    60    10.63    12.58

PASO ROBLES                   0.01   19.75   187    7.55    71    10.57    12.15

SANTA MARIA                   0.16   22.26   197    6.38    56    11.30    13.32

 

 

Next report: March 24 pm

 

At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.