March 26, 2023 am
California is essentially sandwiched between a cool trough of low pressure over the interior west and weak upper level high pressure off the California coast. This is maintaining a cool northwest flow aloft. Freezing levels overnight at both Vandenburg and Oakland were remaining quite low as each location reported that level at 4,900 feet. Models continue to push back the timing of our next Pacific storm. It now looks like rain will not reach much of the area until Tuesday afternoon, possibly even Tuesday evening in Kern County. As the low moves southward along the coast, most models pinpoint the center of circulation just a bit off shore which may reduce rainfall amounts just a tad. However, most models show a good .50 at some locations north of Kern County. There s a chance of thunderstorms Thursday afternoon as the center of circulation passes about 250 miles to our west. There is a reasonably good chance of showers lasting into Thursday morning before ending Thursday afternoon. Models show a moist northwest flow into Friday, continuing the risk into Friday. Most models are showing the storm track remaining a bit further north next weekend. There may be a chance of showers down to a Monterey/Merced/Yosemite line Sunday.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Monday. partly cloudy Monday night. Increasing cloudiness Tuesday morning. Rain spreading southward Tuesday afternoon. Rain at times Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Showers Wednesday afternoon and evening with a chance of afternoon thunderstorms. Showers Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Mostly to partly cloudy Thursday afternoon. Partly cloudy Thursday night and Friday. Mostly clear Friday night through Saturday. Partly cloudy Saturday night through Sunday
Temperatures:
| Madera 58/32/64/41/67 | Reedley 59/33//65/41/66 | Dinuba 58/31/66/40/65 |
| Porterville 60/32/66/42/69 | Lindsay 60/31/66/42/69 | Delano 60/33/67/43/68 |
| Bakersfield 58/37/66/44/70 | Taft 57/38/66/45/71 | Arvin 60/34/66//43/71 |
| Lamont 59/34/67/44/70 | Pixley 59/32/65/41/66 | Tulare 57/32/65/40/65 |
| Woodlake 58/32/65/41/66 | Hanford 59/33/65/42/65 | Orosi 58/32/65/40/64 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Wednesday
Showers 43/65 |
Thursday
AM showers 40/62 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 38/59 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 39/64 |
Sunday
Partly cloudy 40/66 |
Two Week Outlook: March 31 through April 6: For the first time in quite a spell, this model is not calling for above average precipitation. instead, the wording is “near average” with below average temperatures continuing
March: Above average temperatures will be confined from mainly New Mexico east. Below average temperatures will cover much of the western US, including California. Precipitation projections indicate fairly seasonal rainfall, not favoring above or below average rainfall. Let’s see how this plays out.
March, April, May: The 90 day outlook does not give much to grab onto. Above average temperatures from the Desert Southwest then all the way up the east coast with below average temperatures over the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies. Precipitation projections do not favor above or below average rainfall. I guess they’re hedging their bets.
Wind Discussion: Winds later today will be out of the northwest at 8 to 15 mph with local gusts to 20 mph along the west side, diminishing this evening. Winds tonight through Monday will be generally at or less than 12 mph with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Monday night will be out of the southeast at 8 to 15 mph, increasing to 10 to 20 mph Tuesday through Wednesday.
Rain Discussion: Models continue to push back the onset of rain for sometime Tuesday afternoon, possibly even Tuesday evening in Kern County. The center of circulation of this storm will move soutward parallel to the coast. Latest models show the center just a bit further off shore than previous models. This could reduce rainfall amounts, however for now it still appears the valley will get another good soaking. The weather will remain active through Thursday morning, ending Thursday afternoon. Rainfall amounts along the east side north of Kern County will generally range between .50 and .75, the west side could expect .25 upwards to about .50, with generally no more than .25 over the valley portion of ern County. Models show the storm track moving a bit further north after that for a period of dry weather. However, overall models do not yet show a blocking ridge pattern.
Frost Discussion. Lindsay and Exeter chilled down to 30 this morning and Strathmore 31 as of 5:00am. Most other locations were between 32 and 36. Tonight will be the last night where subfreezing temperatures are expected as coldest locations will dip down to29 to 30 with most locations between 31 and 36 degrees. Lows Tuesday and beyond will be above freezing. Even Friday through Sunday temperatures are not expected to drop lower than the mid to upper 30s.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
32 |
Porterville
32 |
Ivanhoe
31 |
Woodlake
32 |
| Strathmore
31 |
McFarland
32 |
Ducor
33 |
Tea Pot Dome
32 |
| Lindsay
31` |
Exeter
31 |
Famoso
33 |
Madera
32 |
| Belridge
31 |
Delano
32 |
North Bakersfield
33 |
Orosi
32 |
| Orange Cove
32 |
Lindcove
31 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
29 |
| Root creek
32 |
Venice Hill
32 |
Rosedale
33 |
Jasmine
33 |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
32 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
Af |
Tivy Valley
32 |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
32 |
AF=Above Freezing
Actual humidity values for Porterville MM%/MM%, Delano 95%52%. Mid afternoon dew points: Mid to upper 40s. Kern: Mid to upper 40s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .75, Parlier, .67, Arvin 58, Porterville .NA, Delano .NA Soil temperatures: Stratford 55, Parlier 57, Arvin 58, Porterville NA, Delano 58 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 69/46 Record Temperatures: 87/34
Heating Degree Days This Season. 2286 +83 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 17.09, Monthly 3.61
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 9.29, Monthly: 2.53
Average Temperature This Month 51.6 -4.6 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Parlier 1306, Arvin 1115, Belridge 1204, Shafter 1230, Stratford 1277, Delano 1273, Porterville 1245 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 6:52, sunset, 7:17. hours of daylight, 12.22
Yesterday’s Weather: H L R
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 60 / 36 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 59 / 35 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 60 / 41 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 61 / 37 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 60 / 34 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 57 / 37 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 59 / 38 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 58 / 33 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1653 / 55 / 38 / 0.00 /
Central CA. Rainfall:
STOCKTON 0.00 21.76 194 8.36 74 11.24 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 18.19 180 8.23 82 10.09 12.27
MERCED 0.00 19.21 200 6.31 66 9.61 11.80
MADERA 0.00 10.20 115 1.64 18 8.87 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 17.09 193 5.45 62 8.86 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 13.72 207 5.30 80 6.64 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 9.29 178 4.54 87 5.21 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 13.62 357 4.50 118 3.82 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 1.05 66 M M 1.59 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 13.14 122 6.41 60 10.75 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.00 19.75 185 7.55 71 10.70 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 22.26 195 6.38 56 11.44 13.32
Next report: March 27 am
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.