March 28, 2023 am
Satellite imagery is depicting a well developed winter storm several hundred miles west of the California/Oregon border. There is a trail of subtropical moisture feeding into the bottom side of the low which will result in significant amounts of precipitation in central California beginning tonight. Radar is already depicting showers down to a Bay Area/Stockton line. Precipitation will slowly move southeastward during the day. This will be yet another heavy snow event in the Sierra Nevada. Above 6,000 feet, another 3 feet of snow will accumulate. Snow levels will drop to 3,000 to 4.000 feet when the colder sector arrives Wednesday and Wednesday night. Thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday afternoon and evening, especially if there are breaks in the cloud deck. Those breaks allow the ground to warm, creating warm currents of air moving skyward. They then interact with the cool air above and voila! Thunderstorms are formed. Lingering showers are possible for a time Thursday morning with dry weather beginning Wednesday afternoon and lasting through the weekend. The next system upstream will move into the Pacific Northwest Sunday night with light showers spreading to a Monterey/Merced line Monday morning. For now, though, it looks like most of the growing area will remain dry. The pattern for later next week is somewhat inconclusive. It appears that during the first half of the week, the storm track will remain in the Pacific Northwest, clipping northern California from time to time.
Forecast: Increasing cloudiness today with rain reaching Merced County during the mid afternoon time frame. Rain tonight. Showers Wednesday and Wednesday night. Isolated thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening. Mostly cloudy Thursday morning with a chance of showers. Partly cloudy Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Friday night through Sunday. Variable cloudiness Sunday night through Monday night. Partly cloudy Tuesday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 68/42/60/37/59 | Reedley 69/43/60/39/60 | Dinuba 67/42/61/39/60 |
| Porterville 69/44/59/39/61 | Lindsay 69/41/60/41/59 | Delano 70/44/60/40/59 |
| Bakersfield 72/47/58/43/58 | Taft 71/47/58/44/58 | Arvin 71/45/59/43/58 |
| Lamont 70/45/59/43/59 | Pixley 69/43/60/40/59 | Tulare 67/42/59/42/59 |
| Woodlake 67/42/60/39/60 | Hanford 69/43/59/40/59 | Orosi 67/41/61/38/59 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Friday
Mostly clear 35/59 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 37/64 |
Sunday
Partly cloudy 40/67 |
Monday
Mostly cloudy 42/67 |
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 36/62 |
Two Week Outlook: April 4 through April 10: This model is again showing a better than even chance of above average precipitation during this period. The dominant trend this winter of above average temperatures will continue.
March: Above average temperatures will be confined from mainly New Mexico east. Below average temperatures will cover much of the western US, including California. Precipitation projections indicate fairly seasonal rainfall, not favoring above or below average rainfall. Let’s see how this plays out.
March, April, May: The 90 day outlook does not give much to grab onto. Above average temperatures from the Desert Southwest then all the way up the east coast with below average temperatures over the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies. Precipitation projections do not favor above or below average rainfall. I guess they’re hedging their bets.
Wind Discussion: winds today will be generally out of the southeast at 8 to 15 mph, increasing to 10 to 20 mph tonight and Wednesday morning with locally stronger gusts. Winds Wednesday through Thursday will be mainly out of the northwest at around 8 to 15 mph at times. Winds Thursday night and Friday will be generally less than 10 mph with periods of near calm conditions, mainly during the night and morning hours.
Rain Discussion: Precipitation will begin to spread into the valley, reaching Merced County by mid afternoon or so, spreading southeastward during the late afternoon and evening hours. Rain will continue at times tonight and Wednesday morning, turning to showers Wednesday afternoon and night. Isolated thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening. Showers will linger into Thursday morning, especially in the south valley, with dry weather Thursday afternoon and continuing through the weekend. It still appears between .50 and .75 is possible along the east side, especially from roughly Visalia north. Models project a fairly strong rain shadow along the west side where upwards to .25 is possible. The valley portion of Kern County should measure between .10 and .25. the next system will spread light showers into northern California Sunday and Monday. for now it appears measurable rain will spread down to a Monterey/Merced line, but the growing area should remain dry. Models for next week don’t point towards a particular pattern. for now, there are no significant indicators of a major system ahead.
Frost Discussion. All locations will continue above freezing for the remainder of the week. the air mass behind the current storm will lower temperatures into the mid to upper 30s Friday and Saturday with coldest locations down to 33 or 34 or so. Currently, there’s no suggestion of a particularly cold weather pattern on the horizon, though temperatures will largely remain below average.
Mid afternoon dew points: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Kern: Upper 20s to the lower 30s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .88, Parlier, .82, Arvin 63, Porterville .NA, Delano .84 Soil temperatures: Stratford 54, Parlier 56, Arvin 57, Porterville NA, Delano 56 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 69/46 Record Temperatures: 84/33
Heating Degree Days This Season. 2336 +112 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 17.09, Monthly 3.61
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 9.29, Monthly: 2.53
Average Temperature This Month 51.1 -5.2 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Parlier 1306, Arvin 1115, Belridge 1204, Shafter 1230, Stratford 1277, Delano 1273, Porterville 1245 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 6:49, sunset, 7:18. hours of daylight, 12.27
Yesterday’s Weather: H L R
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 64 / 31 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 64 / 33 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 65 / 37 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 64 / 32 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 65 / 30 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 69 / 37 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 64 / 34 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 66 / 31 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1646 / 66 / 38 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 65 / 35 / 0.00 /
Central CA. Rainfall:
STOCKTON 0.00 21.76 192 8.68 76 11.36 13.45
MODESTO 0.00 18.19 179 8.25 81 10.19 12.27
MERCED 0.00 19.21 197 6.31 65 9.73 11.80
MADERA 0.00 10.20 113 1.64 18 8.99 10.79
FRESNO 0.00 17.09 190 5.45 61 8.98 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 13.72 204 5.30 79 6.73 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 9.29 176 4.54 86 5.28 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 13.62 354 4.50 117 3.85 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 1.06 66 M M 1.60 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 13.14 121 6.64 61 10.86 12.58
PASO ROBLES M M M M M M 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.00 22.26 192 6.38 55 11.58 13.3
Next report: March 28 pm
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.