I apologize for the scare I gave OCSNET users yesterday. The message I received was a hoax and may be tied to another hoax that had affected OACYS a week or two ago. Anyway, they plan to keep their doors open for a long time and there’s no need to change email platforms.
March 29, 2023 am
As of the time of this writing, a cold front was stretched from near Mammoth Lakes, across Kern County and out to sea near Santa Barbara. Rain was still widespread over much of Kern County and parts of Tulare County while most of the rest of the valley was rain free. Radar shows scattered showers off shore and over much of the northern half of California which will lead us into an active day today. A number of locations north of Kern County have recorded upwards of a half inch. There are a number of rainfall storm totals in the rainfall discussion below. The center of circulation of the parent low is located roughly 200 miles west of Eureka. By 10:00 tonight, that center will be just west of Monterey. Now that we’re behind the cold front, a relatively cold, unstable air mass will settle overhead. Once the daytime heating process gets underway, more showers will break out today and tonight with a chance of thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening. We may see a few lingering showers Thursday morning, but overall Thursday will be a quiet day on the valley floor. the storm track will pull back into the Pacific Northwest over the weekend with a chance of showers over the northern quarter of California. A trough of low pressure will dig a bit further south Monday and Tuesday for a chance of light showers, mainly from Fresno County north. The GFS model is showing a large ridge of upper level high pressure building over the west during the latter part of next week and through next weekend. That’s a pattern we have not seen in quite some time. We’ll see if other models trend in that direction.
Forecast: Periods of scattered showers today and tonight. Isolated thunderstorms cannot be ruled out this afternoon and evening. A chance of lingering showers, mainly in the south valley Thursday morning. Partly cloudy Thursday afternoon into Friday morning. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Friday through Sunday night. Variable cloudiness Monday through Tuesday with a chance of light showers, mainly from Fresno County north. Partly cloudy Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 59/38/59/36/64 | Reedley 60/39/60/36/66 | Dinuba 59/39/60/37/66 |
| Porterville 59/40/61/37/65 | Lindsay 58/40/59/36/64 | Delano 59/41/59/39/65 |
| Bakersfield 59/43/59/41/65 | Taft 58/42/58/41/63 | Arvin 58/43/59/39/66 |
| Lamont 58/42/58/39/65 | Pixley 59/40/59/40/65 | Tulare 58/40/58/35/64 |
| Woodlake 59/39/60/37/65 | Hanford 58/41/60/37/66 | Orosi 58/40/58/36/64 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Saturday
Mostly clear 37/65 |
Sunday
Partly cloudy 41/67 |
Monday
Chance of showers 42/68 |
Tuesday
Chance of showers 36/61 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 36/62 |
Two Week Outlook: April 5 through April 11: This model is again showing a better than even chance of above average precipitation during this period. The dominant trend this winter of above average temperatures will continue.
March: Above average temperatures will be confined from mainly New Mexico east. Below average temperatures will cover much of the western US, including California. Precipitation projections indicate fairly seasonal rainfall, not favoring above or below average rainfall. Let’s see how this plays out.
March, April, May: The 90 day outlook does not give much to grab onto. Above average temperatures from the Desert Southwest then all the way up the east coast with below average temperatures over the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies. Precipitation projections do not favor above or below average rainfall. I guess they’re hedging their bets.
Wind Discussion: Winds today will be mainly out of the south to southeast at around 5 to 12 mph with stronger gusts in the vicinity of showers. Winds Thursday will be generally at or less than 12 mph and mainly out of the northwest. Winds Thursday night through Saturday will be generally at or less than 12 mph. Periods of near calm conditions are possible nights and mornings.
Rain Discussion: The following are storm totals up until 5:00 am: Bakersfield .21, Delano .20, Porterville .35, Mettler .15, Exeter .67, Visalia .56, Hanford .69, Lemoore .78, Fresno .35, Madera .51, Westlands .13, and Merced .62.
Generally, the foothill areas have recorded between one and one-half inches.
For the rest of this event, meaning today and tonight, generally no more than a tenth or two can be expected. However, if thunderstorms develop this afternoon, as much as one-half inch is possible in those localized areas. There’s a chance of some lingering showers Thursday morning, otherwise Thursday through Sunday night will be dry.
There will be at least a minimal chance of light showers from mainly Fresno County north, Monday through Tuesday. The new GFS model showed a large area of high pressure overhead after Wednesday of next week. however, this is a reversal of previous model runs and is up for speculation, especially this season.
Frost Discussion. All locations will continue above freezing for the remainder of the week and into next week.
Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .88, Parlier, .81, Arvin 66, Porterville .NA, Delano .88 Soil temperatures: Stratford 54, Parlier 55, Arvin 56, Porterville NA, Delano 56 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 70/46 Record Temperatures: 87/32
Heating Degree Days This Season. 2347 +116 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 17.44, Monthly 3.96
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 9.30, Monthly: 2.54
Average Temperature This Month 51.1 -5.2 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Parlier 1306, Arvin 1115, Belridge 1204, Shafter 1230, Stratford 1277, Delano 1273, Porterville 1245 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 6:48, sunset, 7:19. hours of daylight, 12.30
Yesterday’s Weather: H L R
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 57 / 40 / 0.23 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 62 / 45 / 0.02 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 63 / 46 / 0.05 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 65 / 42 / T /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 66 / 39 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 73 / 39 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 63 / 43 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 62 / 38 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1652 / 71 / 44 / 0.00 /
STOCKTON 0.56 22.32 196 9.04 79 11.41 13.45
MODESTO 0.18 18.37 179 8.76 85 10.25 12.27
MERCED 0.24 19.45 199 6.69 68 9.78 11.80
MADERA 0.02 10.22 113 1.64 18 9.05 10.79
FRESNO 0.05 17.14 190 5.99 66 9.03 10.99
HANFORD T 13.72 202 5.80 86 6.78 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 9.29 175 5.01 94 5.31 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 13.62 353 4.74 123 3.86 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 1.06 66 M M 1.61 2.20
SALINAS 0.43 13.57 124 6.87 63 10.92 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.13 19.88 183 8.48 78 10.87 12.15
SANTA MARIA T 22.26 191 7.40 64 11.65 13.32
Next report: March 29 pm
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.