March 30, 2023 am
Doppler radar is still depicting scattered light showers over the valley. Most, if not all, of this activity will be over by mid to late morning. The winter storm which 24 hours ago was to our northwest is now moving through southern California and will move into Arizona by roughly midday. Rainfall amounts from this event were again substantial with most locations recording between .50 and 1.00 inch of rain. The trough will continue to push eastward and will be followed by a flat zone of weak high pressure building into California from the west. The storm track through Sunday will move out of the Gulf of Alaska and through the Pacific Northwest until Sunday night and Monday when a system will drop out of the Gulf of Alaska and into California. This system will not be anywhere near the same level as many of the storms we’ve seen this winter season. In fact, most, if not all, locations will likely record less than .10 of an inch. The trough will continue to move through the western US through Tuesday, dropping a cold air mass into California. In fact, local frost will be possible Tuesday through Thursday of next week. the GFS model has done an about face on the pattern for late next week, although a ridge of upper level high pressure will finally begin to build in from the eastern Pacific next weekend. Most of the medium range models are drying out now, far more so than earlier in the winter/spring season. However, as we move into April, this is more or less a seasonal adjustment as we head into the dry season.
Forecast: Scattered light lingering showers will be possible for a while this morning. Otherwise, today will be partly to mostly cloudy. Partly cloudy tonight and Friday morning. Mostly clear Friday afternoon. Mostly clear skies continuing Friday night through Sunday night. Variable cloudiness Sunday night through Tuesday with a chance of scattered light showers. Partly cloudy Tuesday night through Thursday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 58/35/64/36/67 | Reedley 58/36/65/36/67 | Dinuba 57/35/63/37/66 |
| Porterville 58/35/65/36/68 | Lindsay 58/34/64/35/66 | Delano 57/37/64/38/68 |
| Bakersfield 57/41/64/42/66 | Taft 57/41/63/43/65 | Arvin 56/40/63/39/68 |
| Lamont 58/39/65/40/69 | Pixley 57/36/64/37/67 | Tulare 57/34/63/35/65 |
| Woodlake 58/36/64/37/68 | Hanford 58/38/65/39/68 | Orosi 58/35/64/37/67 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Sunday
Mostly clear 39/67 |
Monday
Chance of showers 41/68 |
Tuesday
Chance of showers 44/58 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 33/58 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 35/61 |
Two Week Outlook: April 6 through April 12: This model, along with others, is showing a drier trend than we’ve seen in quite some time. The chance of precipitation is considerably lower. However, a northwest flow will continue, maintaining below average temperatures, a dominant theme this winter/spring season.
March: Above average temperatures will be confined from mainly New Mexico east. Below average temperatures will cover much of the western US, including California. Precipitation projections indicate fairly seasonal rainfall, not favoring above or below average rainfall. Let’s see how this plays out.
March, April, May: The 90 day outlook does not give much to grab onto. Above average temperatures from the Desert Southwest then all the way up the east coast with below average temperatures over the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies. Precipitation projections do not favor above or below average rainfall. I guess they’re hedging their bets.
Wind Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 12 mph late mornings and afternoons through Sunday and generally at or less than 7 mph nights through mid morning hours with near calm conditions. It does appear we’ll have a round of gusty northwesterly winds Monday and Tuesday.
Rain Discussion: The following are storm totals as of 5:00 this morning: Fresno .40, Clovis .69, Madera .58, Merced .92, Visalia .87, Tulare .98, Porterville .58, Exeter .93, Delano .36, Bakersfield .44, CalState Bakersfield .66, and Mettler .50.
This event is over for most locations, although lingering showers cannot be ruled out through midmorning or so. Expect dry weather this afternoon through Sunday. The next weather system is cold but moisture starved. There is a chance of light showers from Monday night through Tuesday night as a cold system drives into the west from the Gulf of Alaska. This far out, it appears most locations would measure .10 or less. after Tuesday, the pattern appears dry, although that’s somewhat of a low confidence forecast.
Frost Discussion. Lows Friday through Sunday mornings will generally drop from the mid 30s to the lower 40s. It’s possible an isolated river bottom or two could drop down to 33 to 34. I am watching Tuesday through Thursday of next week as a cold low drops in from the Gulf of Alaska. It appears this system will have good wind energy which could lower dew points enough for low to mid 30s to occur with a small chance of a few upper 20s. we’ll monitor this system in the coming days, but for now it does not look like a critical situation.
Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .89, Parlier, .84, Arvin 71, Porterville .NA, Delano .91 Soil temperatures: Stratford 53, Parlier 55, Arvin 56, Porterville NA, Delano 56 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 70/46 Record Temperatures: 89/31
Heating Degree Days This Season. 2360 +122 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 17.48, Monthly 4.00
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 9.74, Monthly: 2.98
Average Temperature This Month 51.3 -5.2 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Parlier 1306, Arvin 1115, Belridge 1204, Shafter 1230, Stratford 1277, Delano 1273, Porterville 1245 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 6:46, sunset, 7:20. hours of daylight, 12.32
Yesterday’s Weather: H L R
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1700 / 59 / 37 / 0.40 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1700 / 57 / 40 / 0.48 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1700 / 58 / 45 / 0.30 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1700 / 59 / 45 / 0.72 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1700 / 59 / 41 / 0.10 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1700 / 61 / 45 / 0.44 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1700 / 58 / 47 / 0.49 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1700 / 60 / 44 / 0.39 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1658 / 59 / 43 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 58 / 40 / 0.03 /
STOCKTON 0.28 22.73 198 9.04 79 11.47 13.45
MODESTO 0.46 19.11 186 8.76 85 10.30 12.27
MERCED 0.01 19.84 202 6.69 68 9.84 11.80
MADERA T 10.70 117 1.64 18 9.11 10.79
FRESNO T 17.44 192 5.99 66 9.09 10.99
HANFORD 0.12 14.44 211 5.80 85 6.83 8.13
BAKERSFIELD 0.43 9.73 182 5.01 94 5.34 6.36
BISHOP 0.04 13.66 353 4.75 123 3.87 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 1.06 66 M M 1.61 2.20
SALINAS 0.01 13.70 125 6.87 63 10.98 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.09 20.26 185 8.48 78 10.93 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.10 22.95 196 7.40 63 11.72 13.32
Next report: March 30 pm
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.