March 31, 2023 am
Tomorrow we begin April 1 surveys of the snow pack in the Sierra Nevada. Of course, we don’t know details yet, but we do know they’re massive. Fresno will end March at 191% of average while Bakersfield is at 181% of average. As annoying and damaging as the flooding is, this is the rainfall season that’s answering a lot of prayers. As we move into April, models continue to trend towards a dry weather pattern, not only in the short term, but in the medium term, as well. A series of storms will move through the Pacific Northwest through Sunday, just clipping northern California. Then Sunday night and Monday, a cold low will drop out of the Gulf of Alaska and into the western US. By Monday night, the jet stream will be flanked northwest to southeast over California while a strong surface low develops over the Great Basin. This type of set up is conducive for wind, especially along the west side. The combination of gusty winds driving down dew points and a cold air mass will set the stage for some frost on the ground Tuesday through Thursday mornings. Currently, it looks to be a low to mid 30s event, however we cannot rule out lows in the upper 20s in those coldly spots. After Wednesday of next week, upper level high pressure will build in from the west. However, some models show a cut off low off the southern California coast. For now, it appears the impact on California will be negligible.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Sunday. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Sunday night through Tuesday. Mostly clear Tuesday night through Friday.
Temperatures:
| Madera 65/35/67/38/67 | Reedley 65/36/67/38/67 | Dinuba 64/34/66/37/67 |
| Porterville 65/36/68/37/68 | Lindsay 64/34/68/38/68 | Delano 64/40/68/41/68 |
| Bakersfield 64/43/68/44/68 | Taft 63/44/65/46/67 | Arvin 65/39/68/40/68 |
| Lamont 65/40/67/44/67 | Pixley 64/36/67/39/67 | Tulare 63/35/66/39/67 |
| Woodlake 65/37/67/40/67 | Hanford 65/38/68/38/68 | Orosi 64/35/67/39/67 |
Seven Day Forecast
| Monday
Partly cloudy 40/67 |
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 33/58 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 33/60 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 35/62 |
Friday
Mostly clear 38/67 |
Two Week Outlook: April 7 through April 13: Over the past couple of months, it has been rare to see this model indicate anything but below average temperatures. This model is actually indicating near to marginally above temperatures with dry conditions prevailing.
March: Above average temperatures will be confined from mainly New Mexico east. Below average temperatures will cover much of the western US, including California. Precipitation projections indicate fairly seasonal rainfall, not favoring above or below average rainfall. Let’s see how this plays out.
March, April, May: The 90 day outlook does not give much to grab onto. Above average temperatures from the Desert Southwest then all the way up the east coast with below average temperatures over the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies. Precipitation projections do not favor above or below average rainfall. I guess they’re hedging their bets.
Wind Discussion: Winds during the late mornings and afternoons will be mainly out of the northwest at5 to 12 mph. Winds during the night and morning hours will be light and variable with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Sunday night through Monday night will increase out of the northwest at 15 to 25 mph. Gusts to 35 mph will be possible, mainly along the west side.
Rain Discussion: Expect dry conditions for the next week to ten days. There is a chance of showers over the Sierra Nevada Monday and Monday night, but for now it appears the valley floor will remain dry.
Frost Discussion. All locations will be above freezing above Monday morning. A cold low will drop out of the Gulf of Alaska Sunday night through Monday night, eventually engulfing the western US. Strong jet stream energy and significant differences in pressure will generate gusty northwesterly winds down the valley Sunday night through Monday night. The combination of a cold air mass and gusty winds driving down dew points means the stage will be set for widespread low to mid 30s Tuesday through Thursday mornings. For now, I would not rule out temperatures down to 28 to 30 in wind sheltered locations, especially Tuesday and Wednesday. Moderation in the air mass will take place after Thursday for above freezing conditions Friday and beyond.
Mid afternoon dew points: Low to mid 40s. Kern: Low to mid 40s.
ET for the past seven days: Stratford, .92, Parlier, .84, Arvin 76, Porterville .NA, Delano .90 Soil temperatures: Stratford 53, Parlier 55, Arvin 56, Porterville NA, Delano 56 *=data missing.
Average Temperatures: 70/46 Record Temperatures: 89/31
Heating Degree Days This Season. 2374 +129 Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno 17.48, Monthly 4.00
Precipitation for Bakersfield: Season: 9.74, Monthly: 2.98
Average Temperature This Month 51.2 -5.3 Taken NWS Hanford.
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st Through February 28: Parlier 1306, Arvin 1115, Belridge 1204, Shafter 1230, Stratford 1277, Delano 1273, Porterville 1245 courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise 6:45, sunset, 7:21. hours of daylight, 12.33
Yesterday’s Weather: H L R
MCE : Merced AP 153 : 58 / 38 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera AP 253 : 58 / 38 / 0.06 /
FAT : Fresno AP 333 : 58 / 42 / T /
HJO : Hanford AP 242 : 60 / 40 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore NAS 234 : 61 / 34 / T /
BFL : Bakersfield AP 496 : 59 / 41 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia AP 292 : 58 / 41 / 0.00 /
STOCKTON 0.00 22.73 197 9.04 78 11.53 13.45
MODESTO 0.01 19.25 186 8.76 85 10.35 12.27
MERCED 0.00 20.04 202 6.69 68 9.90 11.80
MADERA 0.06 10.83 118 1.64 18 9.17 10.79
FRESNO T 17.48 191 5.99 65 9.15 10.99
HANFORD 0.00 14.48 210 5.80 84 6.88 8.13
BAKERSFIELD T 9.74 181 5.01 93 5.38 6.36
BISHOP 0.00 13.66 351 4.75 122 3.89 4.84
DEATH VALLEY NP 0.00 1.06 65 M M 1.62 2.20
SALINAS 0.00 13.70 124 6.87 62 11.03 12.58
PASO ROBLES 0.05 20.51 187 8.48 77 10.99 12.15
SANTA MARIA 0.11 23.18 197 7.40 63 11.79 13.32
Next report: April 1 am
At John Hibler Weather Forecasting, it is our goal to provide the most accurate forecasts available. Weather forecasting, unlike any other business, invites errors. Weather, by nature, is chaotic. It is our goal to be as accurate as humanly possible.